Market Report - Finding the floor

Day 1,636, 03:57 • Published in USA Canada • by Wilhem Klink

As the dust settles from the company upgrade, the market has been looking for its floor, the bottom of its pricing. It may have found it on Day 1636.

Raw materials hold stead with the Raw Material Index at 51.11.

Food prices are mixed pushing the Food Index up to 78.65, up from 77.78 despite strong losses from Q6.

Weapon prices are also mixed with modest increases in Q2 & Q5 offsetting strong Q6 drops nudging the Weapon Index up to 77.75, breaking its 6-day losing streak.

The Wage Index hold steady at 101.02 and gold prices dip again pushing the Gold Index down to 123.49.

The Index graph


And a closer look at the last 10 days:



The 1600 AU Index
Based off of the amount of gold a player could earn in a year by working at market wage, selling 20 weapons, 200 food (both Q6) and 1750 raw materials (split 50/50 food/weapons) the 1600 AU Index rises again. Lower gold prices and modestly higher market prices work together to move the 1600 AU Index to 276.59. With Day 1600's market prices, one could have purchased 451 gold, so we have lost 38% of the gold buying potential.

The graph:


A closer look at the 10 day:


Profit per hired employee at Q5 & Q6 companies

The following graph represents profits at Q6 companies assuming market prices paid for wages and raw materials, and market price received for finished goods. Downward price pressure on both Q6 food & weapon push the net profit lower for both.



Q5 on the other hand actually sees some improvement, although breakeven isn't too far away.



Moving Averages

For those unfamiliar with a "moving average", in the following charts, The blue line represents the market price at 3:00 eRep time. The red line in the 5-day moving average (average of the last 5-days) of market prices. What that tells us is whether prices are trending downward (the market price is below the moving average) or trending higher (the market price is above the moving average)

We're back to the low-end (Q1 & Q2)





Weapons seem to have found their floor, at least for now. Can they bring it back to pre-sale numbers? The prior upgrade sale (March 22-26), it took 6 days to return to pre-sale levels. Or have we arrived at a "new normal"?

Food, next.




Seems like food wants to return, but doesn't quite have it yet.

The bonus graphs today - Raw Materials! Revel in the stunning fall.







Note: prices are reflective of a percentage of Day 1600's price (Hence the "1600 Index"). In other words if an index is quoted at 88, that days price is 88% of the price on Day 1600. Except the 1600 AU Index which represents an amount of gold one can buy given market conditions as noted in that section.

Methodology on prices: prices are taken at 3:00 eRep time. The price is the average price of buying 1,000 Raw materials, 500 Food, 100 weapons (at each quality level), and 8 gold, plus the market wage less any fraction of cc (so 240, rather than 240.1). All qualities are standardized to Q1 (per hit or per health).

Sic transit gloria mundi