The Economist ~ Notes on the Hungarian question

Day 2,312, 13:47 • Published in Poland United Kingdom • by Spite313




Dear friends,


I’m going to write a very brief article on this, purely because nobody else has. I think Hungary leaving Asteria is probably the major defining event of the opening round of the Asteria war and yet the international media coverage of it has been very poor. I guess that’s because the internal reasoning behind it has been obscured by several people on both sides, and also because nobody wants to offend Hungary by speculating. Fortunately people are used to me being offensive, so I can do what I want. Hurrah for being old.


To set the backdrop for those of you without maps or eyes, the conflict began as a result of Hungary spreading their way across the whole of central Europe in a thin green line from Russia in the East to France in the West. This effectively cut off Poland and the other North European Sirius countries from interfering in the balkans. Whether this was intentional or not I am not sure, but Poland was very unhappy about attacking Hungary because out of all the Asteria countries, they probably like Hungary the most.


In any case, the arrival of Chile meant that war with Hungary was inevitable, and Poland agreed to help mainly to free Slovakia who have been allies of Poland since forever. In addition the intervention of Bulgaria freed Ukraine, another country which has been fighting for Sirius of late. And so there were three NE proposals on Hungary, and several RWs sprang up at the same time. Hungary’s empire looked likely to follow Serbia’s into the black hole of nevermore.


At this point Hungary complained in various channels about the Romanian-Bulgarian NAP (which was ironically signed to prevent RO ending up in a ping pong war in the balkans) because it did not include Hungary. They demanded that the Romanian government declare war on Bulgaria to take them out of the war. Romania refused. So Hungary made an ultimatum that if Romania didn’t launch a successful NE, they would leave Asteria. A few hours later, they did.


Now for a little bit of analysis. Hungary and Romania were never going to work together in a single alliance. I can’t blame Serbia for being optimistic about it, but the problems run much deeper than they thought. I wrote a while ago that it was impossible for this to work, since they would never fight for each other, thus defeating the purpose of an alliance. This was proven when several leading Romanians fought against Hungary for Chile, and shouted for others to do so as well.



But what will they decide?


Romania themselves I guess have been the more conciliatory faction in this, but whether that was because they were genuinely willing to kiss and make friends with Hungary or they just wanted to convince Serbia they could be buddies I’m not sure. Romania's political class is younger than Hungary's, or at least has a shorter memory. In any case the end result is that Serbia is now allied with Romania and merely friends with Hungary- something I guess nobody in Serbia or Hungary imagined would happen.


I will go out on a limb and suggest that the SerHun friendship was the deciding factor for Hungary in which alliance to choose. Serbia (and possibly Slovenia) are Hungary’s only real friends in Asteria, with the rest as allies of convenience. Not that there is anything wrong with that- all friendships begin somewhere- but obviously in terms of emotional pressures on Hungary, it was the Serbian friendship which pushed them to swallow Romanian membership and join Asteria.


Now I watched those battles, and Serbia was there throughout fighting for Hungary. The problem is nobody else was really. SerHun alone was not enough to beat the combined forces of Sirius and Aurora, and so they ended up back in their cores. Serbia alone was not enough to keep them in Asteria, but it’s enough to keep them from joining Sirius or Aurora- so far at least. That friendship binds them, since they can’t fight against Serbia despite the fact many of them don’t care much for their other allies, especially Romania.


Many people have speculated about a possible Hungarian NE on Romania. The problem is that this would mean losing most of their MPPs, also weakening the position of Serbia who would then be forced to choose and lose a friend however they decided to fight. On the other hand, now they have left Asteria Hungary cannot call on allies for help, only friends. As previously discussed, that means Serbia and Slovenia and not many others. So a big Empire seems unlikely.


In conclusion right now the way I see it Hungary is trapped by their friendship with Serbia into supporting Asteria without any real benefit for them. The future of the country lies in the hands of a national elite which is reputed to be deeply divided on the issue. Whilst I can’t see this change having a huge military gain or loss for any alliance, it does have a profoundly negative effect on Hungary itself. How much longer they tolerate this catch 22 situation before they move one way or another is the question at hand.


Iain