Global Economy

Day 4,224, 08:15 Published in Turkey Bulgaria by David Rockefeller SOC


The UK and South Korea have signed an outline free trade agreement (FTA) that seeks to maintain existing trade arrangements post-Brexit.

International Trade Secretary Liam Fox signed the deal with his South Korean counterpart Yoo Myung-hee in Seoul.

The preliminary agreement marks the first post-Brexit trade deal the UK has secured in Asia.

The agreement is roughly in line with the terms of the existing Korea-EU FTA.

"In so far as a (UK-S Korea) deal has been struck that's a landmark moment," Mouhammed Choukeir, chief investment officer at private bank Kleinwort Hambros told BBC 5 live's Wake Up to Money.

"Where it's not a big deal is that actually the biggest trading bloc still needs to be negotiated - the EU and US."

Brexit: What trade deals has the UK done so far?
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The deal would cover South Korean exports including cars and auto parts. South Korea exports mostly cars and ships to Britain, while it imports crude oil, cars and whisky.

The agreement is designed to provide stability under a no-deal Brexit, with the UK due to leave the EU on 31 October, with or without a deal.

Analysis:
By Andrew Walker, BBC World Service economics correspondent

Tariff-free trade with South Korea is certainly worth preserving. British goods exports to Seoul climbed sharply after the EU's deal with South Korea was implemented in 2011. Last year the UK sold about £6bn worth of goods there.

UK goods imports from South Korea were more than £4bn. Among those countries with which the UK has improved access by virtue of an EU trade deal, South Korea is one of the bigger ones.

There is an agreement with Switzerland, which is the biggest of this group in terms of UK exports. But there is not with Japan or Canada which are similar scale to South Korea. And of course all these countries are far smaller markets for the UK than the EU 27.

Mr Fox sai😛 "The value of trade between the UK and Korea has more than doubled since the EU-Korea agreement was applied in 2011.

"Providing continuity in our trading relationship will allow businesses in the UK and Korea to keep trading without any additional barriers, which will help us further increase trade in the years ahead,"

"As we face growing global economic headwinds, our strong trading relationship will be crucial in driving economic growth and supporting jobs throughout the UK and Korea."

'Trade row'
Both countries aim to ratify the deal by the end of October, and implement it in November.

"The deal is significant as it eased uncertainties sparked by Brexit, amid the already challenging environment for exports on the escalating trade row between Washington and Beijing," Ms Yoo said.

South Korea - Asia's fourth largest economy - is a global leader in electronics, steel and auto industry.

The country's exports to the UK hit $6.36bn (£5.0bn) last year.

The UK is South Korea's second largest trading partner among EU members, and the Asian nation's 18th largest trading partner.

Negotiating deals
The UK is pushing to strike agreements with its trading partners as the Brexit deadline looms.

As a member of the EU, the UK is part of 40 trade deals which the EU has with other countries.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, it would fall out of these deals immediately, disrupting about 11% of UK total trade.

A priority for the government has been to get these countries to roll over their trade deals with the UK.

So far the UK has agreed "continuity" deals with 12 countries and regions, including Israel, Norway and Iceland, Switzerland and Chile.

BEIJING – The Chinese government is trying to convince the world that the onus is on the U.S. to resolve trade tensions between the two countries.

As negotiations remain at a standstill, Beijing has yet to confirm whether Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the G-20 meeting in Japan at the end of this month. Trump on Monday threatened more tariffs on Chinese goods if Xi does not attend.

Representatives from the Chinese side said Thursday they think it’s likely that Xi will go to the G-20 meeting.

But in order to reach a trade deal, they emphasize, the U.S. must agree to certain conditions. These include the cancellation of all additional tariffs; following the direction of what was agreed at the G-20 meeting in Argentina last year; and abiding by terms which China considers equal.

“China’s position has been very clear and explicit. It is the U.S. who initiated the trade friction,” said Liang Ming, director of the Institute of International Trade, a research unit under the Ministry of Commerce. He was speaking in Mandarin via an official translator at a press briefing on Thursday.

“Now I think China has greater confidence than the U.S. At the G-20 we could have talks, but the precondition is that the U.S. shows good faith,” Liang said. “If it continues to go backtracking on its own commitments, then we’d rather not have the talks.”

China’s in no hurry
Negotiations between the U.S. and China took a turn for the worse last month. Trump increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from China, and his administration put Chinese telecom giant Huawei on an “entity list” that effectively cuts the company off from its U.S. suppliers.
The view of Chinese academics, Liang said, is that China’s economy can withstand the pressure of prolonged trade tensions, which they see are at the behest of Trump’s presidential campaign efforts.

“We know that starting from the (June) 18th, President Trump will start the new round of general election campaign, and so we think he is also eager to reach a deal, ” Liang said. “But if we look at the whole situation, China is in no hurry because time is on our side.”

US must show ‘sincerity’
Since then, the Ministry of Commerce’s official line has been this: For talks to continue, the U.S. must “adjust its wrong actions” with sincerity.

Liang laid out three points in which the U.S. could show such “sincerity.”

First, echoing China’s Vice Premier Liu He, who is also the country’s chief trade negotiator, Liang said the U.S. must agree to cancel all additional tariffs.
Second, Liang said Beijing would like the U.S. to “significantly ease export controls on high tech export products” in order to reach demands that China increase its imports of American goods by at least $1.2 trillion.
“The third point is about a balanced text that is about expressions and wordings,” Liang said. “We don’t think there should be a lot of strong, forceful words such as ‘must’, ‘should,’ etc.”
Efforts to ensure that Beijing and the Trump administration will adhere to the terms of any trade deal have been a source of uncertainty on both sides. Each country claims the other backtracked on what appeared close to a deal just weeks before talks fell apart.

In early June, China’s powerful State Council published a white paper laying the blame on the U.S. for the trade tensions.

Zhu Guangyao, former vice minister of finance and an advisor to the Chinese government on trade, affirmed Thursday that China is waiting for the U.S. to agree to Beijing’s terms. He said he expects Xi will attend the G-20 meeting given a previous agreement with Japan. But he emphasized the need for multiple levels of communication and full information for progress toward any kind of deal.

“Since the negotiations are so (serious), both sides are beginning to put their red lines on the table — what we can negotiate, what not,” Zhu told CNBC’s Eunice Yoon in English. “So people’s interests, national sovereignty, national dignity, certainly is the red line. No one can go beyond that.”

Beijing’s ‘core interests’
In a commentary piece published in late May, state news agency Xinhua said that U.S. demands, including restricting the development of China’s state-owned enterprises, is an attempt to damage Beijing’s “core interests.”

Foreign businesses have complained of an unequal playing field with Chinese companies due to government support. In addition, there’s poor protection of intellectual property rights and forced technology transfer to China in order to operate there, they say.

Beijing has made some moves to address those issues in the last several months. But for an international community watching the country since it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China is still moving too slowly.
As trade tensions escalate, China is increasingly digging in its heels for a longer-term dispute, while trying to keep the door open to the U.S., which has long been the Asian country’s largest trade partner.

In a rare public comment on the trade dispute, Xi indicated last week at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Russia that he would like to maintain a connection with the U.S.

“It’s hard to imagine a complete break of the United States from China or of China from the United States,” Xi said in Chinese, interpreted into Russian and then translated into English by Reuters.

“We are not interested in this, and our American partners are not interested in this,” Xi said. “President Trump is my friend and I am convinced he is also not interested in this.”

Global oil prices could fall to as low as $45 per barrel if tensions between the U.S. and China worsen, an investment strategist told CNBC Thursday.

Oil prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks as investors become increasingly concerned about slowing demand. Appetite for oil is at risk of a further slump if the U.S. and China fail to the resolve trade differences, which will cause the global economy to weaken even more, said Rainer Michael Preiss, executive director at Taurus Wealth Advisors.

“I think a lot of market focus is on the G-20 meeting,” Preiss told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Thursday.

“If America and China couldn’t agree, and America raises tariffs again on Chinese imports, potentially this could slow down the economy meaningfully,” he added.

U.S. President Donald Trump previously said he would make a decision about whether to impose further tariffs on China after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting in Japan later this month.

Washington has so far slapped 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, with Trump threatening to apply the same elevated levy on the remaining imports from China worth around $300 billion. In retaliation, Beijing raised tariffs on billions of dollars worth of American products.

Tensions between the U.S. and China have also extended beyond trade. Washington placed Huawei on a blacklist that restricts American companies from doing business with the Chinese tech giant, while China threatened to cut off its supply of rare earths to the U.S.

Those developments have hurt sentiment among businesses and consumers, and are blamed for contributing to much of the economic slowdown globally. Now, any potential uplift in the global economy hinges on Trump and Xi reaching a deal, said Preiss.

“Everything that I look at seems to indicate that global growth” will depend on how the talks between the U.S. and China pan out, he added.


Turkey's current account deficit fell to $1.3 billion in April, improving from a $5.6-billion deficit in the same month last year, according to data released Thursday by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).

The figure saw a drop of $4.26 billion compared to the same month last year.

Official figures also revealed that the country's 12-month rolling deficit amounted to $8.6 billion.

"This development in the current account is mainly attributable to $3.65 billion decrease in the goods deficit recording net outflow of $1.84 billion," the bank noted.

In 2018, the current account balance posted a surplus in four consequent months, reaching the highest point in October. Last year, the current account balance recorded a surplus in August, September, October and November, respectively, at $1.9 billion, $1.8 billion, $2.6 billion and $1.1 billion.