Power Spin results - statistical analysis

Day 4,237, 22:53 • Published in Canada Canada • by kiisupai

Dear fellow eRepulikans!

eRepublik Labs have once again offered us a game of gambling they call the "Power Spin".

Looking at the Power Spin board it has a round wheel with 8 equal sectors. One would assume that you would have 1 in 8 chance to hit any of them.

You start with a free spin. Once the free spin is played, the next one will be 500 cc. And each subsequent would cost 100 cc more (except for the possible free spins won, after which the next spin would not increase in price).

I played it today and here are my results:
37 x "3 x AIM92 Stingers"
34 x "1 x Triple Energy Bar"
31 x "Free Spin"
27 x "1 x Small Bomb"
8 x "+100 Prestige Points"
6 x "2 x Energy Bar"
4 x "+100 Energy Center for 7 days"
1 x "Jackpot 1 - +100% Damage Booster fo 24 hours"

In total I played 148 rounds.
That cost me 512,400 cc.
And what I got in return was certainly not worth it.

Instead of the expected equal 1 in 8 chances the actual results show that some are more frequently hit than the others:
1 in 4 chance of "3 x AIM92 Stingers"
1 in 4 chance of "1 x Triple Energy Bar"
1 in 5 chance of "Free Spin"
1 in 5 chance of "1 x Small Bomb"
1 in 19 chance of "+100 Prestige Points"
1 in 25 chance of "2 x Energy Bar"
1 in 37 chance of "+100 Energy Center for 7 days"
1 in 148 chance of "Jackpot 1 - +100% Damage Booster fo 24 hours"

So, please don't give in to this game of gamble where You will surely lose.

kiisupai
aka Miss Canada