Weekly Market Report - Q7'd upside the head

Day 1,712, 06:50 Published in USA Canada by Wilhem Klink


Q7 food & weapon factories knock the market for a loop. It also screws up the 1600 Index since there isn't a Day 1600 benchmark for Q7s.

Raw materials take a weapon raw ride as WRM prices double over last Saturday. Food raw material prices are stuck in low gear at .03 although there was some world-wide pressure upwards during the week. The Raw Material Index jumps 44.44 to 91.11.

Food continues its general downward slide as Q6 takes a 6% hit with the Q7 intro and other quality levels follow suit with Q2 dropping 13%. The Food Index hits an all-time low at 56.03, down 4.3 for the week.

The bottom falls out on weapons with the Q7 weapon. Q6 tanks drop 28% as Q2 & Q3 post double-digit percentage losses as well. The Weapon Index drops to its all-time low of 56.03.

Wages collapse as employers of Q6 weapon companies fire employees en mass as profitability evaporates. Wages plunge 39% dropping not only below $300, but below $200. The wage Index gets hammered to 62.03, down more than 23 points from last week.

Gold drops 39% for the week amid a general sell-off after the jump in weapon raw material prices.

The Chart:


Its hard to see, but gold & raw material have switched places as the top & bottom. Maybe a closer look at the last 10 days would help.

There you go. Wages drop, gold slides, raws jump.


The 1600 AU Index
Based off of the amount of gold a player could earn in a year by working at market wage, selling 20 weapons, 200 food (both Q6) and 1750 raw materials (split 50/50 food/weapons) the 1600 AU Index jumps with the collapse of gold but then moderates with the wage drop, and weakness in Q6 pricing. Still the 1600 AU Index is up 50 for the week at 326.53.

The chart:





Self-employment
Another look at self-employment profits in the face of a doubling of weapon raw material prices:



There are two columns to note if the reader is working their own factories to sell weapons: the "Income" column and the "Total RM cost" column. It costs more for raw materials than you can get from the market for the finished goods on all weapons except Q7. Example Q1: selling 20 Q1 weapons will get you $64. Selling the raw materials you would have used to make those 20 Q1s would make $76. Why would one bother to make Q1s? Sell the raw materials for $76, buy 20 Q1s for $64 and pocket the $12.

It goes all the way to Q6: income from the weapons = $414 (before VAT), income from selling the 1200 raw materials = $456. Sell the raw materials, buy 20 Q6s from the market and you are $46.14 ahead.

Well wages are low so employers must be raking it in, right?

Not so much for weapons. The raw material prices are killing it.

A more detailed look at the last few days of Q6 production (with employees):

Profits were on the way back before the intro of Q7 and the floor dropping out on Day 1710. On Day 1710, the market price for a Q6 dropped by $6 ($120 for an employee's output of 20) and the raw materials rose from $108 to $228. A swing of $120 less revenue and $120 more expense eliminated the $96.70 profit entirely.

What does the future hold for Q6 (assuming weapon raw material prices moderate)? Will it be the New Q5: marginally profitable given the right wage, or The New Q4: merely a waiting point for an upgrade to a Q7.

And some Q7 details:

The high market price upon introduction (coupled with the lower raw prices) made it very profitable. For one day. Then the increasing raw prices (doubled from Day 1710 to Day 1711) took a toll.
Hiring employees for a weapon company at market wages is not profitable at any level.

Food, maybe?

The low wages and low raw materials make even Q4 food profitable, and Q7 food insanely profitable.


Note: prices are reflective of a percentage of Day 1600's price (Hence the "1600 Index"). In other words if an index is quoted at 88, that days price is 88% of the price on Day 1600. Except the 1600 AU Index which represents an amount of gold one can buy given market conditions as noted in that section.

Methodology on prices: prices are taken at 3:00 eRep time. The price is the average price of buying 1,000 Raw materials, 500 Food, 100 weapons (at each quality level), and 8 gold, plus the market wage less any fraction of cc (so 240, rather than 240.1). All qualities are standardized to Q1 (per hit or per health).

Sic transit gloria mundi