The Economist ~ The alliances gap

Day 2,040, 15:41 • Published in China United Kingdom • by Spite313
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Dear friends


Today I want to talk about an increasing growth of “pariah” or unwanted countries in erep. Now most of us know that the natural state of the world is that there are two alliances in contention, and all nations more or less side with one or the other. But these days we have come to a point where the two main alliances – TWO and CoT, are such a web of overlapping loyalties and old allies that there are forming pariah states unwanted by either side, and nations which whilst in alliances lack support from many of their allies.


The perfect example of this would be France. Typically an ally of the North Americans, France was marginalised first by a NAP between the USA and Poland, and later by the USA’s entrance into CoT. Since then their citizen numbers have been in constant decline, and now they have almost no influence or presence on the world stage at all, with almost all their relations being bilateral ones and their most important diplomatic relationship being the one with the country currently occupying them.


These countries found themselves crushed between two warring brothers. Despite having a hostile relationship with TWO, the core members of CoT – MKD, Bulgaria, Chile, Indo – share a historical continuity. They are as much the cultural successor of the PEACE-Phoenix alliance as TWO is, perhaps more so in some ways. As a result they’ve inherited the prejudices and historical relationships of those alliances and thus have a very similar foreign policy as TWO do. Countries which were not part of this tradition – at least the significant ones – are now struggling to avoid marginalisation.


One solution to this is a change of tack. Greece managed this, mainly due to good relationships IRL with Serbia. The war with CoT (and especially MKD) meant that the support from TWO for Greece and Romania has gradually grown over the past few months. The ultimate result of this is the acceptance of Greece as the first full member of TWO added since founding, and the potential future entrance of Romania pursuant to the settling of relations with Spain and Hungary. In fact, even without entrance to TWO, support for Romania from Serbia makes their position totally safe.


However not every country has successfully adopted this strategy. One country which is notably out of place is the USA. After a briefly successful attack on Serbia last month, the US has faced the largest invasion since PEACE times and has been utterly defeated- with even tiny countries like Montenegro successfully establishing beachheads on the soil of one of eRep’s most powerful nations. The USA, officially a member of CoT, lacks support even from within it’s own alliance. The main reason it is still there is a lack of alternatives- the nearest being some sort of pan-American alliance with perhaps Spanish involvement. But that has really been in the pipeline since the birth of CTRL, and each time has stumbled over the same consistent problems.





Another pariah is Croatia. They’ve been a core member of EDEN since it’s foundation, but now they’re stuck in the wilderness. They are not trusted by many in CoT and their hostility towards Serbia (and vice versa) prevents them from developing any sort of relationship with TWO. Fortunately they are in relative safety in Asia, along with fellow Balkan nations Albania and BiH they are almost out of the game. Some ex-EDEN nations maintain MPPs, but really Croatia’s status is determined by its lack of threatening neighbours. Its relative safety means it has the luxury of time to make a decision about which way to go, much the same as China does. Most other nations in the war are forced into making a decision out of necessity.


In the past such pariah nations have proven to be the bedrock of new alliances. It’s arguable that CoT itself originally formed from nations which were ONE aligned but not welcome in ONE for whatever reason, and similarly these countries in their state of forced neutrality could easily provide the basis for a third alliance. The problem with this however comes with their geographic dispersal. Despite the airstrike module, regional strength still provides a huge factor in modern warfare. TWO’s greatest achievement won’t be remembered as being the recruiting of Greece or the conquest of America, but the Pax Europa it has established throughout the home continent. For the first time since eRep began, we’ve seen a long period with no real fighting in the Balkans. This solid wall of power across Central and Eastern Europe has allowed the six nations and their allies to totally dominate the continent. This dominance provides the basis for projecting power globally without the never-ending fear of an ambush in the rear.


However things can change. Just as TWO’s first period of hegemony was dependent on CoT allies fighting EDEN, TWO’s second period is dependent on the support of several countries which are not officially alliance members, Romania and Turkey, foremost amongst them. Despite having differences with these countries, no TWO nation wants to see a war with them or wants to see them on the other side. For now, mutual support is acceptable to both sides, but it isn’t necessarily the case. Croatia, France, Romania, Argentina, Colombia, Turkey, USA – between them these countries represent a sizable amount of power, and though they will not match TWO even combined, their loyalty and influence should not be taken for granted. TWO needs the support of many of these nations, without whom the alliance would be tied into a constant defensive spiral. Right now, they need TWO as well, but this could easily change.


Iain




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