The Economist ~ Individualism, dispersed networks, proxy wars and chaos

Day 3,833, 12:46 Published in United Kingdom United Kingdom by Spite313
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Dear friends,

One of the first things people said to me when I came back into the game was “there are no alliances anymore” or “there is only one alliance: Asteria”. In the last few weeks I have come to realise that both of these statements have an element of truth to them, but there is of course more than one side to each story.

More than ever before in eRepublik history, each country stands alone. This is a gradual trend in the game caused by two things. Firstly as time goes on, the amount of betrayals and past wrongs pile up, which makes building a functioning alliance challenging. Secondly the game promotes individual game play, and so national governments are less and less effective at supporting one another (because their citizens don’t follow their orders).

I don’t want to go on a huge trip down memory lane, but for example in 2010 it was common for alliances to tax countries a portion of their income, for countries to have ONLY national military units and for most, if not all, battles to be serious ones. Nowadays out of 80-100 active battles it is unusual for there to be more than 3-4 serious battles ongoing. A huge proportion of world damage just goes directly into training wars, or overhitting resistance wars that are easily won.

A good example of this was the recent Portugal-Hungary war. The war was interesting because it involved an Asteria member nation (from the actual alliance, not just pro-Asteria). Portugal did about 20 billion damage in the round. Macedonia did about 7 billion, Romania 3 billion and Serbia 2 billion.



Live as brave men; and if fortune is adverse, front its blows with brave hearts.

Now Portugal is a medium sized country in this game- it is big enough to sit at the top table of nations in Asteria, but not really a juggernaut. It is well respected because, like Lithuania and Iran, it packs a big punch for its size. It went face to face with Hungary - which is on the cusp of the top tier - and won a number of times. But it’s not in the same category as Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria etc. who occupy the top tier of the world.

In the old days, what you would have seen is Serbia at the top of the damage ranking, followed by Romania, and so on down. Portugal would probably have done 2-3 times their normal damage as people flocked to defend the motherland, but of course the most powerful countries in the alliance would have dealt most of the damage. On the other side you would have expected to see Croatia, Hungary, Greece, Chile etc at the top of the damage roster. But the game has changed since then.

The Portugal-Hungary war was primarily a war between Portugal and Hungary. Yes there were allies fighting and helping on both sides, but not on the scale we saw in the past. Too much damage flows into meaningless battles. Too many fighters think about farming medal gold, and not about fighting for their allies. And governments, however much they try, do not have the same leverage over military units and individual fighters that they once had. People don’t need supplies anymore; they don’t need CO.



Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations...entangling alliances with none

So what does this do to alliances, and the interplay of relations between countries? It makes it a single player/single country game to a large extent. If you’re in a small country and you get attacked or invaded, the solution isn’t to rally allies behind MPPs and crush the enemy. The solution is to get your allies to directly attack the country which attacked you. Because citizens are only really reliable in a direct war.

People say that Asteria is the only real alliance, but in fact it is more of a federation than an alliance. A federation that includes, outside its official membership, countries like Bulgaria, Macedonia, France, Germany and the UK. A federation that also tentatively covers Poland, Russia, and the Republic of China. It is not an alliance as much as a group of countries that will act with common purpose.

What is the difference you might ask. Surely an alliance is - at its most basic level - a group of countries that will defend one another? That is true. But the difference is that an alliance is something bigger- a supranational organisation which itself directs members for their mutual benefit. That means even if you think the President of a country is useless, or you don’t like a country, you’ll fight for them because it’s the alliance’s daily order. What we have now is a whole string of roughly bilateral agreements between countries to support one another, under the auspices of an alliance.

For example, Macedonia has no official alliance membership. If it fights, it knows it can count on the support of certain Asteria countries it is friends with, but not all of them. That is because it has courted bilateral friendship with those countries, and they will therefore support each other. The UK is the same: we have built up a lot of friendships under jamesw’s leadership, and those friendships are very beneficial to us (and hopefully to our allies too). But the support we get is because of friendships/bilateral relationships, not because of formal alliance membership.

Flipping to the other side of the world, we have a loose group of countries who can consider themselves on the receiving end of the attention from the Asterian federation. Countries like Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Turkey, Argentina, Chile, the USA and so on. Those countries are not allies. Some of them will support the others, some won’t. Basically it is a much more dispersed version of the Asterian confederation- each country can rely on several major nations to help it, but nothing like the size of the network they face.

So combine these two ideas together- firstly that countries now fight as individuals, with support coming in the form of direct attacks from friendly nations. Secondly that alliances are now more like dispersed networks, comprised of bilateral agreements. The final component to add in is that direct wars between powerful nations (such as Croatia and US, or Republic of China and Greece) are incredibly expensive: in gold, in currency and in real money.

With these three factors we see a method behind the madness of the last few years. There was no advantage to a direct war unless you’re wiped and looking for a home. So instead what we saw is two things: extremely unbalanced wars where very powerful countries attack much weaker ones (this is a sure victory); and proxy wars where smaller nations fight to prevent larger ones from facing each other across the battlefield. Thus in the vast playing field of North America, it is Portugal that is rooting out Hungary, not Serbia or Romania, neither of which particularly want a border with Croatia and the inevitably expensive war that might trigger.



The desire for safety stands against every great and noble enterprise.

This created a very conservative military strategy for all countries. It meant that no Asteria nation would commit to an attack unless victory is certain, or close to certain, or there are several fall backs available. It meant that other non-Asterian countries would not commit to an attack at all, because of the knowledge of certain defeat. This created a culture, until very recently, where we would have long stable periods of ‘farming’, interspersed with a few very carefully planned and inevitably successful Asterian campaigns.

This contrasts sharply with the kind of environment the game had previously, where multiple alliances would be acting and reacting to one another often at quite short notice. Where national reserves were always one bad round away from empty for every country. Where a surprise attack could - even against the strongest nations like Serbia - result in a wipe.

The Croatian attacks on the USA, and then ROC, represent a break from that history of reaction. They were not a surprise (Croatia openly pledged to attack the USA for example) but the fact that they were out of Asterian control represented a change in the rhythm of the game. The subsequent dogpile from Macedonia, Bulgaria, Lithuania et al was - whilst again not a surprise - out of the control of Asteria. It was a break from the culture of careful planning that had characterised the game for so long.



What we wish, we readily believe, and what we ourselves think, we imagine others think also

So to circle back again: individual country policy, dispersed alliance networks, conflict avoidance, a change to a more unpredictable culture. What do these things, together, mean for the future?

If we assume that each country now relies on their own individual strength more than ever, this makes smaller countries much more vulnerable to attack, regardless of alliance membership. So, for example, Portugal is more vulnerable than Bulgaria or Croatia, despite on paper being a member of a very powerful alliance.

If we assume that alliance networks are dispersed collections of bilateral agreements, the natural next step is to assume some (in fact many) of these informal agreements will cross alliance boundaries. Such friendships are openly recognised between Asteria and certain Pacifica nations, but with their combined efforts it is not impossible that there could be Pacifica and Asteria nations becoming friendly with the ‘other’ group (Croatia et al). This process complicates matters and undermines the formal alliances.

If we assume that powerful nations will attempt to avoid direct conflict with one another due to the cost, this means that the most powerful countries (Serbia, Romania, Croatia etc) will not directly attack one another by choice. This is based on previous history, and although perceived by most to be true (perception is reality) may not be.

So finally, the change in culture. If a country like Croatia can act in an unpredictable, undirected way, so can others. When this happens countries react to the crisis rather than act- which means no careful planning, no clever strategies long prepared, no coaching the less gifted country presidents in what buttons to press and when. It means an element of chaos. In that environment, the normal method of things is disrupted. ROC-Greece should not have been a close fight - ROC had most of Pacifica and Asteria on its side. But it was. And that was with 24 hours notice and every fighter sitting waiting for the attack to open.



Il n'est pas certain que tout soit incertain.

These four factors are the four horsemen of the eApocalypse for the current game culture. I see two possible developments. Firstly that, in the face of a threat that requires ever greater organisation and centralised planning, alliance blocks re-solidify into a more coherent and recognisable (dual) alliance structure. Secondly the opposite: that in the face of a reality where you have friends in opposing alliances and enemies in yours, the game becomes ever more reliant on networks of personal relationships, and we see ever more bizarre battles where arch-enemies fight together in support of mutual allies.

Which of these two visions of the future come to pass is hard to say. As things stand right now, the Asteria block has the best hope of reforming into a traditional alliance. It is, after all, an alliance already. Despite some fairly public bust-ups, most of the members and pro- members are friendly toward one another. The rest- Pacifica, Andes and friends, have little in common and a huge bundle of past dramas keeping them apart. That would be a huge and difficult chasm to cross, but if Asteria does soldify they will have to try.

On the other hand if things continue to disperse, we will see a different world altogether. One where individual countries take on more and more a role which previously belonged only to superpowers and alliance leaders- international diplomacy. Whilst most countries have some sort of Minister of Foreign Affairs, their usual job is just to go round making buddy with allies. To have to actually go out there and make allies, and maintain them month after month through shifting sands, will be an incredible culture change.

One thing I think is certain- there will be a change one way or another. The current system is entropic, and that is why we are seeing a gradual drifting apart (towards the second option above). Either that will continue, or we will see a reversal, but there is no status quo to maintain.

To end on a positive note, I think the upside of all this will be that we see more real wars, which will be more exciting and more meaningful. It’s the dream of every alliance leader to win, but for it to be a good fight. I think there will be a lot more of that whichever way it goes.

Change is good for the game, and more interesting political and military developments will keep people active and involved. I am hopeful that this trend will continue in a positive way, and that the chaos can be guided towards a future world structure that means more exciting wars, more incredible diplomatic achievements, more newsworthy events occurring. Whatever your take on how events stand at present, that should be something we can all get behind.

Iain



Afterword

This article represents my current thoughts and feelings. Everyone has a different view on how things are, and how they will progress. I would love to hear those ideas and views in the comments below. There is no right or wrong in this, but every individual perception contributes to the culture I am trying to describe.


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