Power spin Statistics
Visor Of Blades
As promised, here is my probability table from the Power Spin that Plato has been giving us. The total data is for 1084 spins, of which I got about 700 from various people from across the eWorld, I must duly thank them for it.
Most notable of them were:
Mann551
Fyreous
Akshit1998
among a long list of many others.
Without further ado, let me post the table and then explain it a bit, because some parts I expect to be not straightforward :
As the I should explain the second most noteworthy feature first: Where the heck is the info on free spins? I have decided to omit that entirely, and let me explain why.
Let's say, I want to spin until I make a spin that costs 1000 cc. Now, let's say that in my 1000 cc spin, I get a free spin. Do I stop at that? No, I'll obviously make that spin for free. Let's say I got a small bomb from it. Now, the question is - What did I get from the 1000 cc spin? Is it the free spin, or is it the small bomb? Considering that under no circumstances will I not ever do the free spin, it is safe to say that I got the small bomb from it.
Next up: Why does the table look so dirty? That's because I used a spreadsheet, which will calculate the value for (outcome/total) as accurately as it can. To make it readable, you can refer to the approximate probability tally in the 5th column. For example, 3x stingers were obtained on 216 out of the total 1084 attempts, giving it an absolute chance of 0.19926..., which corresponds to 19.926...%, which I have approximated to 20% in the final column.
As a note, the last column is an approximation, so the total will not be 100%.
Now, coming to the part that you would have looked for right off that bat: The chances of scoring a Jackpot and the PP boosters. The unsurprising part is that these are very unlikely, with you getting only one of each every roughly 30 attempts. What is perhaps more striking, is that the Jackpot is actually less likely. You may be thinking "well, it's only off by about 0.35%, is that really a lot? Well, look at it like this - there are 34 successful jackpot claims, and 30 pp booster claims. So sure, the difference overall is about one third of a percent, but you're really scoring jackpots at a 10% higher rate than a pp booster --> (34-30)/34 = 4/34 = 0.1176 = 11.76%. Now that surely is more striking as 'a lot'.
Well, that's it from me for now. I'll sign off here, hoping to be able to come out with better analysis of this that I plan to publish at around the start of the next spin, so that we can actually make use of that information.
Thanks for reading, and maybe you can subscribe to my newspaper so that you don't miss my next article (which is probably going to be the analysis).
Comments
Thank you for putting this together! o7
Good Halloween! 🎃 My secretary wants to meet you. I posted a picture of you here: erepublik.com/it/article/2745146
Right...
o7 good shit
how can shit be good 😛
Thanks!
thank you!
o7
great work mate o7
thanks o7
Slight correction, guys: as you can see, the jackpot is more likely, and that's what I meant to say in the article. However I've managed to say that is less likely, which is a typo (and aslo wrong)
This is great!
VOTE
Thank you for the effort and time, great article!
🐰7
o7
ο7
Good job!
Another approach to the spin wheel spendings:
Let's say you have a budget to spend. To find how many spins you can turn for that budget, replace k with the number of spins you want to turn in the formula:
50(k^2+9k)
10 spins 50(10^2+9*10)=9500 cc
50 spins 50(50^2+9*50)=147500 cc
😉
Good idea, I'll have that in my next article, for sure!
"Why does the table look so dirty? That's because I used a spreadsheet"
Na. We all use spreadsheets and then don't look dirty. We don't show the second column and format the output to only have a few decimal places. 😉
I've also been tracking my spins and they say the same as yours.
The difference between jackpots and prestige booster probably comes from not having enough data, the error margin is too high to know if there really is a difference.
I have 1000+ data points, so the error should be a lot less than 0.1% overall, and what we see is 0.35%.
Anyway, no substitute to more data, so as I collect more, it'll only get better.
Visor OP
Nice information.
Visor I think free spin is a misnomer. Initially there was genuinely a free spin... Now it is just a repeat spin. You don't get an extra spin
Yeah that's basically my argument as well. If you get free spin at 1000cc, and that free spin (which as you say is repeat spin) gives small bomb (as example), then what really happened is that you got the small bomb for the 1000 cc spin.
So I can safely ignore "free" spin.
This article deserves Plato's endorsement, don't know whether plato has read this.
I did not submit this to Plato foundation. So he won't read it. Do you think I should submit it?
please do that! this article deserves it 🙂
Ok
H, turns out Plato foundation went inactive...
but they are providing endorsements, I do see them. This article deserves tbh. May be for next article lets plan bigger.. kind of 10k data points 🙂 lets discuss in discord further 🙂
o7
Great work
good stuff
this is a very interesting article, bravo for creating such a helpful and detailed analysis on the subject of the spin wheel thingy...
keep up the good work!
Pole V .
https://www.erepublik.com/es/article/comunicado1-2743510
Very good use of probability methodology.
Hatsoff to your work designing the stats model in excel.
o7 bro