[Economy] Analyzing the new changes to MM (ENG/SWE)
Valnad
PS! Don't miss Iain Keers latest article with about Swedens economy!
Greetings, ladies, gentlemen and other perculiar life forms,
Today we've seen a long-awaited change to the Money Market module. All currencies are now fixed at the same rate, meaning that Swedish currency - according to the system - is (supposed to be) worth just as much as American, Polish and Serbian currencies.
1. The Gold price will drop drastically
Prior to this change, SEK was nosing at 1 Gold = 2000 SEK. We have already begun to see the price dropping for the next few days.
Since every citizen only has one currency type available, they also use the same Money Market. Essentially this means that everyone in the world will see your offer and not just your own countrymen. Since the average value of currency in the world is estimated to be a lot higher than SEK, we will slowly but steadily see the difference between Gold and currency decrease.
2. No more "cheap" companies
The days of changing citizenships in order to take advantage of the different currency values seem to be over. Polish players who got CS in Sweden in order to buy cheap Saltpeter mines will now have to invest PLN to buy Mines, no matter if they like it or not.
It's quite likely that those who sold a lot of gold and bought Saltpeter companies in low-value countries will end up making the most profit from these changes.
3. Sweden just became one of the wealthiest countries in the world
As President, I was sometimes critized for wanting to save money instead of spending it all. But the direct consequence of our high taxes is that Sweden now sits with one of the two most valuable Country Treasures in the world (13.1 million SEK, second only to Brazils 13.6 million BRL).
When the time comes - which I'm sure it will - when Presidents can initiate market proposals to the congress, it will enable our government to move lots of currency to our national bank account. That will, in turn, enable us to buy up thousands of Gold or support our active citizens to buy upgrades for their companies, start more mines, etc. Only our imagination will set the boundaries
🙂
4. Salaries will drop a LOT!
I've just lowered my wages to 200 SEK and that is likely to be way above the top salarie within a day or two. Company owners will do good in checking up on their salaries often the upcoming week, because there are still a surplus of workes compared to the amount of (profitbale) companies.
5. Product prices will change - is Plato finally planning on leaving now?
Our Swedish economy has been entirely based on the Plato bot. Perhaps that will change now that currencies are compared at fixed rates. The only difference between a large and a small nation is that you have to move in order to buy from another market than your own, and small countries thus have fewer consumers.
But active players will likely move half across the world if they find markets with undervalued products compared to their prices "at home". Thus, I foresee a drop in product prices, although it is also very depending on the drop in salaries and Gold price. All these factors are intertwined and when one drops, the others will soon follow.
It's impossible for me to predict if/when Plato leaves our market, but it's likely to happen once the market has been given enough time to stabilise itself again. Company owners will suddenly find themselves in competition with the entire world instead of just their own neighbors, and up here in the North where we have been spoiled with the bot prices, many of our less active company managers might be in for a nasty surprise.
That's all for now, but feel free to keep the discussion going in the comment section
🙂
Yours truly,
Valnad
Retiring President
Keeper of The Cake
God afton, mina damer, herrar och andra underliga livsformer,
Idag fick vi äntligen se en efterlängtad förändring av ekonomimodulen. Alla valutor är numera fixerade till samma växlingskurs, vilket i praktiken betyder att Sveriges valuta SEK - enligt systemet - är lika mycket värd som dollarn, Polens och Serbiens valutor.
1. Priset på Gold kommer att sjunka väldigt mycket
Innan dagens ändringar var SEK uppe och nosade på 1 Gold = 2000 SEK. Vi har redan kunnat märka ett stadigt sjunkande pris och den trenden lär hålla i sig ett antal dagar framöver.
Eftersom varje citizen endast har tillgång till en valuta så tvingas de också att använda sig av samma Money Market. Detta innebär att alla spelare i hela eVärlden kommer att se de erbjudanden som du lägger upp, och vice versa, istället för endast andra Svenskar eller spelare som aktivt ändrat till SEK som växlingsvaluta, som fallet var tidigare. Eftersom den genomsnittliga värderingen av valuta i världen är avsevärt mycket högre än SEK normalt sätt värderas till kommer vi se en stadig minskning i skillnaden mellan Gold och valuta.
2. Inga fler "billiga" företag
Tiden då man bytte medborgarskap för att kunna köpa billiga företag i andra länder verkar vara över. Polacker som fixade CS i Sverige bara för att komma över billiga Saltpetergruvor kommer nu att tvingas betala PLN för sina företag, vare sig de vill det eller ej.
Det är därför ganska sannolikt att de som sålde Gold och köpte på sig ett stort antal Saltpetergruvor initialt sett kommer vara de som gynnas mest av den här förändringen, eftersom det hädanefter kommer vara dyrare (relativt sett till priset på Gold) att köpa bolag.
3. Sverige blev just ett av världens absolut rikaste länder
Som President hände det att jag fick kritik för att vara för sparsam och inte spenderade tillräckligt mycket av statens pengar. Men den omedelbara konsekvensen av denna ändringen, i kombination med våra höga skatter innan ändringen, är att Svenska staten har näst mest valuta i Country Treasure (13.1 millioner SEK, strax efter Brasiliens 13.6 millioner BRL).
När tiden kommer - vilket jag är säkert på att den kommer att göra - då Presidenter får möjlighet att initiera statliga uppköp av varor från marknaden via Riksdagen, kommer det möjliggöra för vår framtida regering att flytta ut tonvis med valuta från CT till Riksbanken. Det kommer i sin tur att möjliggöra ett uppköp av tusentals Gold, eller stöd till våra aktiva spelare för uppgraderingar av deras bolag, köp av nya råvarubolag, etc. Endast vår fantasi sätter gränserna
🙂
4. Lönerna kommer att sjunka VÄLDIGT mycket!
Jag har just sänkt lönerna för mina anställda till 200 SEK och det är sannolikt att den lönenivån kommer att ligga långt över maxlönen på marknaden inom en dag eller två. Företagsägare gör gott i att kontinuerligt hålla koll på sina lönenivåer under den närmaste veckan, för det finns fortfarande ett överflöd på arbetskraft i förhållande till antalet (lönsamma) företag.
5. Marknadspriserna på produkter kommer att förändras - har det till slut blivit dags för Plato att lämna oss nu?
Vår Svenska ekonomi har varit helt beroende av Platos bot. Kanske kommer detta att ändras framöver, nu när valutorna är fixerade till samma värdering. Den enda skillnaden mellan ett stort och ett litet land är att du fortfarande måste flytta för att kunna köpa från en annan marknad än din egen, vilket gör att mindre länder har lägre konsumtion p.g.a. färre (tvåklickandes) konsumenter.
Men aktiva spelare kommer sannolikt att flytta halvvägs över världskartan om de hittar marknader med undervärderade produkter i jämförelse med deras priser på "hemmamarknaden". På grund av detta förutspår jag ett prisras, även om detta naturligtvis beror på vad som sker med lönenivåerna och priset på Gold. Alla dessa faktorer är ju sammanlänkande och när en börjar sjunka kommer den snart att dra med sig de andra två i fallet.
Det är omöjligt för mig att svara på om/när Plato lämnar vår marknad, men det lär ske så fort marknaden har fått tillräckligt med tid på sig att stabilisera sig igen. Företagsägare kommer plötsligt att hamna i en situation där konkurrensen är avsevärt hårdare än tidigare, eftersom det nu är hela världen som sätter prisnivåerna istället för varje nations egna invånare. Här uppe i Norden har vi varit bortskämda med "botpriser", så ett flertal av våra mindre aktiva företagare kommer att få sig en otrevlig överraskning.
Det var allt för den här gången, men fortsätt gärna att diskutera ändringarna och min analys i kommentarsdelen
🙂
Er tilltrogna,
Valnad
Pensionerad President
Keeper of The Cake
Comments
Pertamisho!
What makes you predict that Plato will leave us based on this change?
I simply don't find your last arguments good enough.
New Lonestar!
V by the way ...
pixelized >
Plato will likely leave all markets sooner or later. This change was the first step in order to prepare the world for a "bot-free" economy. Since all currencies have the same exchange rate for Gold, and the MM is international instead of local, all prices will eventually have to be interlinked between various markets.
For example: if I can buy Q6 tanks for 20 USD, and sell them for 40 SEK, I will of course move to US and buy as many tanks as possible only to move back to Sweden and sell them at a huge profit. In order to prevent this "loophole", I expect that admins will simply shut down the bot entirely.
I just can't see how the bot would be able to survive unless it either:
A) Started working in every market or ...
😎 ... stopped working completely.
If you dissagree, I would like to hear why.
I wish that Plato would disappear, but I doubt it. I wish that erep will become advanced, but I doubt it. I have the feeling that admin is trying to create a facebook game, a fast paced game for every day user. Meaning: earn easy non-complicated money so you can spend it even faster on war.
And I doubt that the Swedish salaries will drop. 220-230, if not even higher cuz of the cheap RM. I've noticed that when it comes to economy, people think simple. And its probably why admin is doing the game even more simpler.
but if the bot leaves, where does the new money come from. Because for every built q4 it means 4250 CC less. So the bot will always be needed.
Countries are still able to print currency, but the price is way too high with the current gold value.
It's true that the bot is still needed, but it has not been active in markets with strong currency before so I don't see why it should be active on our market now. By "active" I mean a bot that buy for more than the lowest bid on the market. I think that the bot has, in fact, been active in many (if not all) markets from time to time, but the big nations hardly notices such subtle changes unless the bot actually buys for higher prices (as it has been doing in Sweden).
Salaries have already decreased a lot. A low raw material price will not keep the salaries up on its own, since there's a supply-and-demand that is way out of balance right now. Q5 owners will not hire people until they can produce a profit and until then, only Q6 owners are hiring new employees. Since you get paid in your own currency, foreign players will simply move here and take jobs if it meands that they get more money than at home.
So salaries will definitely have be decreasing. Maybe not to the level in Serbia, Poland, China... but well on the way.
It's a bit like Tooth says.
I also wish that our bot would go away but i truly doubt it.
But time will tell mate and i'll be the first to congratulate you if your prediction comes out right.
How low do you think gold can fall?
Gold is about to drop below 1200 anytime now, and the prices on WRM and weapons continue to drop.
The breaking point for Q6 weapons is 44,56 SEK right now. Unless the prices abroad will drop beliw 35 SEK, I think we should see our market levelling out around 44-45 SEK for now, due to the maximized VAT.
But in truth, I don't expect the prices to stay up for as long as the gold price is sinking. As for Plato, well, we shall have to wait and see what happens. It is definitely active right now (which is as expected) but will it stay here when the local markets have adjusted themselves to the international prices? If so, there's a LOT of profit to be gained by Swedish capitalists in the near future.
marko_markovic >
It's almost impossible to tell, since admins continually mess with the balance by adding advertisement campaigns such as upgrading companies, Q2 training grounds, energy bars with -30% off the price, etc.
Without another sale, the price will continue to drop down towards the 1k limit. I think that there's a psychological barrier that will keep it above three figure rates for a while, but if the supply is high enough it could sink even further.
Considering the median rate on currency in the world prior to the change, I had actually expected the gold price to stabilize around 1100/gold or so, but it seems as if the strong markets have enough gold to support even the entire international scene (Serbia, Poland, Croatia, Bulgaria and all the 10/10 countries).
6, we - as single entities - are not competitive anymore
a chinese or american (with 100/100 bonuses) can build up a new/manu company 1.5 times faster or he/she can spend 1.5 times more money on goods or training.
7, we - as a country - are not competitive anymore
employees will leave for better salaries to a country with favorable taxation (revenues will drop)
8, we - as an alliance - are not competitive anymore
ONE is doomed by admins
romspy
Kisgazda >
6. This is true, indeed. High production countries had an edge before, and this change puts them not one but ten steps ahead of the competition.
7. Don't underestimate the lazyness of the less knowledgable player. Besides, we have the highest salaries in the world right now (going to check that for a fact, but I think it's true) so they pretty much have to plummet or otherwise our company owners will go bankrupt.
8. ONE was doomed even before this change, but yes, the game is heavily focused around the TEDEN markets right now.
Voted!
List of the highest salaries in the eWorld right now:
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-economy-list-of-the-highest-salaries-in-the-eworld-eng-swe--1982291/1/20
I was wrong - we were tied for the no 4 spot in the world. Portugal is actually a bit ahead of us.
221 SEK Portugal
210 SEK Canada
208 SEK South Korea
207 SEK USA
206 SEK Sweden
I do not think that the gold price will go down. we wear very close to the exchange rate 1.05 sek for 1 sek i think I remember when all currency changed too one currency. and that was when our gold price was high 1800+ sek.
The gold price dippt some during this week but is on its way back up now.
I believe it will stabilise around 1500 sek until the admins change more stuff.
No, the gold price will continue to go up. At the time when this article was written, it was heading down but it appears as if the collective demand for Gold is higher than the larger countries desire to keep the currency at high values.
Since there's a common interest in letting the currency fall, due to the way it makes currency-priced companies cheaper measured in Gold, it's likely that the Gold will continue to rise and rise and rise until admins decides to put an end to the cash cow milking policy.
I actually doubt that we will see a stable Gold price at all.