[CN] The dust settles on Mazandaran

Day 1,563, 06:21 • Published in China China • by mihail.cazacu

Yesterday most of the players of eRepublik, irrespective of their allegiances, took part in one of the most bizarre episodes in the game: the battle for Mazandaran and Golistan, during which Turkey managed to wipe out Iran.

What we need to understand is the battle for Mazandaran was actually lost on the banks of the river Volga, when Iran failed to win against Russia's MPPs. Without Iran controlling Volga it was impossible for Bulgaria to get across the Caspian sea, no matter how the Turkish-Iranian fight would have ended.

Once we understand this we also realize that the plan of using Iran to swap Bulgaria into the saltpeter region of Semnan was completely unrealistic.

That is, the plan to swap Bulgaria there without Turkey's approval. With Turkey cooperating, the swap would be a walk in the park.

Let's look at the whole plan in order to identify its weak points. The actual swap consists in the following series of battles:

1) A successful Resistance War in Mazandaran and Golistan. It happened, but only with heavy tanking, using real money;

2) An Iranian victory in Volga, so that Bulgaria can get a common border with Iran. That is highly unlikely if the allies of Russia don't agree to let Iran win. Serbia, Poland, FYROM or Hungary didn't bother to tank there and won't tank there in the future either;

3) An Iranian victory against Turkey in Mazandaran. Highly unlikely for the same reasons as above;

4) A Bulgarian victory against Iran in Volga. Piece of cake since the Iranians agree while ONE would love Bulgaria to switch sides. So they won't interfere if the hard work had already been already done by somebody else;

5) A second Iranian victory against Turkey in Semnan, so Iran can keep the initiative while making room for Bulgaria. The pigs might fly over a frozen Hell sooner than Iran would score two victories in a row against Turkey. Especially an Iran allied to FYROM, Serbia, Poland and Hungary;

6) A Bulgarian victory in Mazandaran against Iran, bringing Bulgaria across the Caspian Sea. That's easy as pie. It's the steps in-between that are hard;

7) A third Iranian victory against Turkey, so Iran can still be on the map after Bulgaria gets Semnan. The pigs would keep flying around the Moon and Hell would be covered in cherry ice cream sooner than that;

8.) A Bulgarian victory against Iran in Semnan. No problem, except it needs 4 miracles before it can be possible. And even in fairy tales we only get 3 wishes granted.

But would that stop the Bulgarians from trying it again and again?!

As long as Turkey remains inflexible, the Bulgarians have only this option.

Or it can be said the other way roun😛 as long as Bulgaria keeps vetoing Turkey, they need to also keep trying to make 4 miracles possible.

However the two situations aren't equivalent.

The Bulgarians who oppose the Turkish membership are actually divided in two groups:

1) Those who have a Real Life problem with Turkey and transfer this problem in-game.

How many are they?!

Well, if we add up the votes from the last election, they are 19.7% of the active players.

2) Those who remember how Turkey behaved towards Bulgaria in PEACE and Phoenix times. To that category I also add those who were rubbed the wrong way by the recent stupid trolling in the media.

The referendum about Tukrey's membership indicated 62% against. Which means there is a considerable gap between those who still live in the 19th century and those who would accept Turkey on condition Turkey starts to behave constructively. Constructively towards Bulgaria.

(It is true that Turkey proved to be a good ally to the rest of the members of TEDEN. But the nature of the problems between those members and Turkey is different than the Bulgarian-Turkish issues. It's like love: just because John loves Sally and Sally loves Jack it doesn't make John automatically in love with Jack. Each relation has its own peculiarities so one size DOESN'T fit all.)

The referendum also indicated 38% were in favor of Turkey's membership in EDEN. This means if Turkey meets Bulgaria half-way (like the Bulgarian president Tablov suggested), we would need only another 13% of the Bulgarians to become favorable to a long-term friendship between the two countries, so the 51% majority is achieved.

Getting 13% on board is much easier than 4 miracles in a row, isn't it?!

- Turkey doesn't get any benefit from holding the provinces of Semnan and of Mazandaran;

- EDEN doesn't get any benefit if every two days we fight yet another Volga-Mazandaran combo. Even the Bulgarians would get tired of it soon, just like they got bored wiping out FYROM for the N-th time;

- EDEN doesn't get any benefit if Bulgaria lacks the bonuses it could have had if Turkey had shown more flexibility. The bonus translates directly into additional damage, damage Bulgaria would use, like she did before, to bury ONE deep into the ground.

So the ball is now in the court of Turkey.