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Secret behind Power Spin

Day 2,222, 19:59 • Published in Japan Japan

• by ardishabutaro

Citizens of New World,

As you may know at the moment, Plato announces new update to test your luck at Power Spin

You got 1 free spin each day, and if you want to spin more, you must pay gold (1 gold at first, additional 0.1 gold per next spin/1.1 Gold).
The big prize for it is 500 Gold, which is enough for us to build 14 Q5 WRM at current price.

Actually, luck is only some myth in the name of mathematics. With some probability calculation, one of my friends calculate the probability for you to won the 500 Gold (of course, credit to him! not me 😃)

Some math and calculation at this picture >> http://i4.minus.com/iOnI04maCKx3Q.png This can be debatable, since i am very weak at math in high school 😃

Conclusion: Chance to win 500 Gold at 52th spin (56 Gold spent) = 98.46%
Lack of this calculation is when probability to win jackpot ticket isn't 1/8 but 1/1000 or 1/unlimited (by the system behind). You know your admin way 😉

Time to sponsors!

Spam Mii: http://www.erepublik.com/en/main/messages-compose/2189633
Write: Mikuru for Empress!

You will got her "star" as the prize:

See ya at SSG Christmas Event!

-shabutaro

Comments

ardishabutaro Day 2,222, 19:58

First!

metehan2010 Day 2,222, 20:11

if math worked in this game plato would bankrupt in a hurry... but i like the article : ) voted

evenmore Day 2,223, 03:19

Thank you!

tarasino Day 2,222, 20:46

[removed]

tarasino Day 2,222, 20:52

You assume that the jackpot has the same chance as the normal prize, 1/9.
But if code is done so that jackpot has a chance of 1/1000of showing up than you would need to spin it 3000 times.
and yes that is how it is done, so please don't try it shabu.

evenmore Day 2,223, 03:19

I assumed 1/7 for each award considering (as it should be according to the kind of game) each option equiprobable. I'm the first to say that if I were the creator of the game where my only goal is to make players spend their gold, I would use an interface seemingly fair, but a probability distribution in my favor.

MacBen Day 2,223, 06:20

yeah,asuming that the odds are fair in a a game of chance where the chances are unknown requires a LOT of faith that the banks goodwill ..... and Plato dosn't have this reputation.

@who ever tries to win the spinning weel jackpot I offer you a lot of gold if you guess the numer I'm thinking of right now.
1 gold per guess.
no complains afterwards if you didn't know that complex numbers are also numbers,too.

ardishabutaro Day 2,223, 06:52

find out the lack of this calculation section. i know it already, Tara

eisenmutter2 Day 2,223, 00:55

weel spins strange when it is near the jackpot
- when it is before then it stops very suddenly
- when it is on the prize it often spins longer than usually and goes on to the next prize after the jackpot

http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/my-last-article-goodbye-update-will-stay-afterall--2354366/1/20