The new geopolitical situation in Euroasia

Day 1,668, 20:39 • Published in USA Bulgaria • by Boyan

This month something really interesting happened in Iran, something that did not attract a lot of of attention but in a long term would lead to a new round of Turkish demands and to an extreme turmoil in EDEN itself.

As most of us are aware Iran has been torn apart of a long going civil war between the pro EDEN and the pro ONE loyalists with the former finally getting enough support to change the political picture within the country and the region as well. The current Iranian government after months of hesitation finally changed the Iranian position and aligned itself with the majority of the TEDEN countries with one exception - Turkey.

For the common TEDEN citizens the few extra millions damage that Iran would contribute to the alliance is a bless, yet the new political approach of the former ONE member brings a lot of uncertainty and confusion for the future EDEN goals.

Turkey

'Iran in EDEN' for Turkey means the same as 'Turkey in EDEN' for Bulgaria before leaving the alliance. If one opens the map he could easily notice that Turkey is now surrounded by only allied powers: Ukraine, Romania, Russia, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Iran. The country is landlocked in a cage with Bulgaria being its only chance for escape. The wise Iranian foreign policy has changed the game in the region blocking any future attempts for Turkish dominance and quests for resources in the south. Undoubtedly, the on going war between Bulgaria and Turkey will not last forever. Whatever the outcome of the war is though, Ankara is doomed to either stay occupied or rely on its original resources as Bulgaria would definitely be way too expensive and difficult to deal with.

I honestly doubt that Turkish citizens and foreign policy will support such an outcome. Whenever the Bulgarians get tired of fighting the Turks and negotiate a peace agreement the tension between Turkey and Iran would hit the skies again. Iran is an easy corridor for resources and I wouldn't be surprised if we witness Turkish demands for kicking Iran out of the pro-EDEN camp when the country gets back on its feet. The longer the Iranians remain pro-EDEN the more unsatisfied the Turkish society would feel.

Iran

The current situation for Iran is extremely beneficial as the country faces no rivals in the region and has the Middle Eastern peninsula next to its reach supplying Iran with the needed resources. Having observed the Iranian behaviour in the past three years here, I wouldn't be surprised if Persians start hailing the 'Iranian - Turkish Brotherhood' again.

Yet if the relations between both countries do not improve, Turkey will consolidate its image as a controversial member of the TEDEN community with Iran, Russia, India and Ireland refusing to accept any kind of cooperation with them.

EDEN

The irony here is that Greece and Ukraine who were one of the strongest supporters of the Turkish membership in EDEN, hoping that such would ensure their regional stability and additional resources, would be the biggest net losers if a NAP between Bulgaria and Turkey becomes reality.

Ukraine stands no chance against Bulgaria and the country will be quickly occupied if Bulgaria secures its southern border.

Croatia stands no chance against Serbia and the country will soon be occupied again as Bulgaria is not there to attack the Serbians from behind.

Greece could be easily double penetrated by Bulgaria and Macedonia if Bulgaria signs the NAP agreement.

Romania could be easily double penetrated by Bulgaria and Hungary if Bulgaria signs the NAP agreement.


To sum it up

Both Bulgaria and Turkey can forget about sustaining resources in a long term due the new Iranian foreign approach which dooms the countries into a constant war.

Turkey dissatisfaction with EDEN would continue to grow causing tension within EDEN itself until Iran is kicked out.

If a NAP is signed all EDEN neighbouring countries would face a threat of deletion.

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