Further Analysis on the eAustralian Population
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by Chris Carnage
I refer to Adam Von Templar's excellent article analysing eAustralian population trends using eAustralian presidential and congressional election voting numbers. Adam speculates about some possible interpretations of this data, and asks what can be done to remedy the decline of our population.
If you haven't read the article I suggest you do so, make sure you vote and shout it as well to tell your friends.
I'd like to continue the conversation by expanding the analysis to compare eAustralian population trends with those of other countries. I hope this will help us understand whether the trends we see in eAustralian population are the result of purely local factors (PTO, colonisation, wars, etc) or potentially related to wider, global population trends.
I have chosen eUSA and eIndonesia as being large countries with relatively stable borders during the period of analysis the results are less likely to demonstrate fluctuations due to localised issues.
Methodology
Adam's graphs demonstrate that the presidential and congressional vote counts demonstrate a consistent trend, therefore I have only chosen on of these measurements (the presidential election vote count for Jul '10 to Jun '11).
As the populations of eUSA and eIndonesia are in all cases substantially higher than that of eAustralia I have 'normalised' the data, with June '10 vote count as the index. So while the vote count in June '10 was 2522, 2829 and 1082 for eIndo, eUS and eAus respectively these are all set as indexes to the value 10. The values presented on the graph can then be considered as a percentage of the June '10 vote count, so eAustralia's July '10 vote count of 1293 is calculated to (1293/1082) x 10 = 11.95. Got the gist?
Results
Below are the results of the analysis presented as a graph.
Click to view larger image
As you can see all countries experienced a massive population decline from July '10 which, if I remember correctly, coincides with the release of the now infamous eRepublik Rising (or v2). We then see that eUSA and eIndonesia begin their recovery within a couple of months while eAustralia continues to decline. As Adam points out, this is most likely the result of our colonisation at the hands of eIndonesia. While those countries continue to grow in population, eAustralia is on a slight downward trend.
Summary
None of this conflicts with Adam's analysis and conclusion that eAustralian population is declining, and in fact the conclusion is supported by the fact that eAustralia continues to stagnate while eUS and eIndo grow. The analysis does however put the early 'plunge' in population into perspective as a global phenomenon brought about by the release of v2.
While the picture is not rosy, the situation appears to hold more hope for a potential recovery than on first sight looking at eAustralian data in isolation.
I hope you found this interesting.
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Thanks Chris that is a good insight to global trends, I also see there was a drop in all countries in May 2011, does anyone remember if this corresponds to a major change in the game around that time?
would that be the food stuff coming in (Factories)
When V2 was released and massive people fled the game, their citizens were still alive for 4-8 weeks, until they ran our of wellness. This why you see a more or less consistent drop through Aud-Sept 2010. All those citizens finally made their way to eHeaven.
I'm certain this graph line is similar for most countries.
Shame that Aussie hasn't been able to recover to any real degree.
Great article, voted.
The PTO period really took its toll.
I was actually a bit surprised by the amount of recovery in US and Indo figures. I think the headline figures published indicate a downward trend so maybe we are seeing less multis of late.
Sadly I think aprt from the PTO effect, the game has gradually changed to favour large countries over small. the latest change to raw materials where 20% bonus is given for each NRB, is especially tough on smaller countries. A small country struggling to hold a few regions might have 1-2 NRB's and will be completely dominated by a larger imperialistic country that is usually 4,5 NRB's. The significant difference in supply levels would have a huge impact long term as rank training progresses at least 50% faster.
WHY IS IT SO? 😃
PTO killed Australia... oh and the ANP right Larni?
voted
If, big If, ONE reaches endgame, assuming wiping the map is endgame, then I'm hoping ADMIN would "reset" the map, otherwise I think the game would become too tedious.
I'm hoping that if they do that, then prior to bringing the server back up, they would cull the data base for all multies, irregular transactions etc. maybe even doing some hard coding to prevent more of the same.
Would be nice, if at the same time, they took the time to tweak some of the existing coding to include some of the suggestions from the players.
Anyway... a girl can dream... Good luck you guys!
o7 eAustralia
v & s
I personally haven't seen much effort lately toward player retention in eAustralia. I realize it's hard to fight daily battles with eIndo's and also be concerned about the population but maybe a warmer welcome to new players and a friendlier atmosphere would help some.
R︀a︀t︀e︀ ︀m︀y︀ ︀n︀а︀k︀е︀d︀ ︀p︀h︀o︀t︀o︀s︀ ︀♀︀ ︀.︀ ︀M︀y︀ ︀b︀l︀о︀g︀ https://www.youtube.com/redirect?q=%6e%61%6b%65%64%2d%67%69%72%6c%73%2e%6f%6e%6c%69%6e%65%2f%6b%6b%2f%78%6b%44%57%43%39%3f%73%6f%75%72%63%65%3d%65%72%65%70%75%62%6c%69%6b%26%61%64%5f%63%61%6d%70%61%69%67%6e%5f%69%64%3d1806245