Some math

Day 2,951, 16:18 • Published in Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia • by I-G-D

I don't like writing long articles, but I'm good at math, so here we go...

Let's say we had 30 battles today, all day long... And each battle lasted for 15 rounds. 72 raffle tickets are awarded per round, which means that around 32400 raffle tickets will have been awarded, if not a lot more. The same thing goes for tomorrow, and that's 64800 raffle tickets in total.

As for the weekly challenges, let's say that 1000 players got approximately 5 raffle tickets during each weekly challenge. There were 3 weekly challenges, so that's around 15000 raffle tickets. 79800 in total.

And finally, the MU tournament. Let's say that 300 players got approximately 8 raffle tickets in total. That's around 2400 raffle tickets, which gives us the grand total of around 82200 raffle tickets.

If you have 200 raffle tickets, the probability for you to get the main prize is 200/82200 = 0.002433, which is around 0.24%. I don't even wanna start calculating your chances of getting it if you have less than 100 raffle tickets.

What's interesting is that if we use my rough approximations, then we get that your chances of earning at least 1 prize (provided you have at least 50 raffle tickets), are close to 100%.

That means that trying to "aim" for the top prizes is pretty much impossible, no matter how many raffle tickets you have (even 200+). However, you can get quite a lot of Gold by getting a decent amount of those 25-50-80 Gold prizes.

My predictions are that people with a huge number of raffle tickets will have a fun time after the draw, even if they don't get any "big prizes".

Either way, the reason why I decided to write this article is 'cause I was really bored, so I hope you don't mind my poor writing style.

I-G-D