Voting Population Statistics
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by Major Lee Hung
About 18 months ago I wrote an article on the active voting population - at the time it was falling as the general eUK population stagnated, a pretty obvious expectation so it turned out to be a waste of an article. This year however, the statistics are a little more interesting.
Congress Elections
Congress elections are typically subject to more 'frowned upon' factors, such as people using multi-accounts to vote. With the use of programs such as Tor, the anti-cheat system has a difficult time tracking them all, the statistics do show some interesting results though:
I put the data in the wrong way round, but life is too short for me to bother actually fixing it
Summary
As you can see, the results don't correlate at all with the eUK's population in the last 5 months. The population was, I believe, around 4,000 at the start of the year. There was a significant 'baby boom', player retention was very poor however.
Outline
At this time, the voting population was approximately 12% of the eUK's population; this indicates that around 75% of the eUK's population at the time was what the average player would class as 'inactive'.
As the months progressed, eRepublik's standards of activity began to put the population numbers down, and the population has been falling monthly since.
Anomalies
There was a significant anomaly in June. The voting population jumped to over 25% more of the average voting population. This is a big anomaly because the numbers just don't fit. There was nothing at the time of June to have caused a sharp increase. A close look at election results from April to July:
April:
ESO - 120, TUP - 118, UKPP - 106
May:
TUP - 157, ESO - 155, UKPP - 112
June:
TUP - 220, ESO - 216, UKPP - 143
July:
TUP - 143, ESO - 107, UKPP - 106
Looking at the results, the anomalies could be because of foul play between ESO and TUP, although it's also highly possible that the eUK was just generally more active for a 30-60 day period in Summer, which could be indicative of when the eUK is at it's peak.
Average Voting Population in Congress Elections: 511
CP Elections
Data the right away around this time 😃
Summary
In the CP elections, we see a very similar pattern. Sharp increase in June, and stagnation for the rest of the year. The number of votes does seem to be slightly higher in more heated elections, although the general part, with the exception of June, looks to be a sharp fall in voters.
Average Voting Population in CP Elections: 594.6
Comparison
Comparison of the two sets of data
So as we can see, there is a slight corrilation between the two elections, except for this last election. (Without accusing anybody of multi-accounting, the only explanation many of us are going to find for the anomaly in October is the rise of New Era)
A lot more people seem to be voting in CP elections, which is totally expected. The amount seems to be 15% more votes in the CP elections than the Congress elections.
The active voting population is now at 21.7%, I'll compare this with some other countries (chosen at random) based on CP elections:
France - 22.5%
Serbia - 24.7%
USA - 26%
Australia - 19.7%
Average: 23.23%
So, while we're slightly below average, the eUK is definitely no different in terms of population activity.
Predictions
My personal prediction is that we can expect to see the number of active citizens fall in the coming months. eRepublik isn't exactly attracting many new players, and we seem to be 1 step ahead of the rest of eRepublik in declining. (While the rest of the eWorld hits stagnation, we're already well in to decline)
I feel that on Monday, we can expect to see around 470 votes in the CP election, with a similar number leading us in to 2013
The only way to overcome this is to promote the game yourself. Recruit friends and keep them playing - remember that eRepublik is merely an arena built for us to play in, the community is what the game is about. Also, remember to vote in every election! Voting numbers are a good way to track the true population, and therefore, in eRepublik, every vote DOES count!
Thanks for reading, vote and subscribe for more articles in the future!
Next Article: The real formula to a nation's eRepublik success - 7pm tomorrow. (2/11/12)
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Comments
Not proof-read it yet so let me know if you find any mistakes!
Interesting, good work
very interesting, and agreed, the key is in the new players, pity that TUP doesn't understand this.
A very nice article to read. I'm hope you continue on with further articles like this. 🙂
Thanks! Hopefully in future I don't somehow manage to completely screw up every single graph.
The key is that eRepublik is not that good any more than it used to be, however many still start playing and some more stop playing. To get them play longer than 1-3 months is the problem. For that we must make the game more interesting with additions like games, IRC and forums (in other words build a nice community). In the last elections the most multies were found in New Era, but that must be coincidence.
Voted.
Weren't we occupied/at war in June(ish) time? Might explain that spike in activity over early summer, then as wars dried up and holidays kicked in it naturally slopes downwards as people throw in the towel/move abroad
Great article! Interesting stats!
Q7 factories and rapidly dwindling wages killed a lot of peoples interest in the game
Players who stop playing die after X days. If the babyboom all died at a similar time, it would greatly decrease the population whilst not affecting voter numbers, increasing activity %.
You celebrated prematurely when you said data round the right way lol
Look at the graph and you'll see the mistake
Still a great article