Congress Election - Overlookings & Projections

Day 1,830, 13:17 • Published in United Kingdom Norway • by Major Lee Hung

Good evening fellow tea drinkers.

Today I am going to write about the coming congress elections, and point out some nice and not so nice things about the future of the eUK.

As you've probably seen, the eUK has changed greatly in just two months. We've seen the rise of New Era, UKPP take over the #1 spot, the revival of UKRP and the steady but sure decline of ESO - all of this was completely different in Summer.

So how does this impact the elections? Lets take a look at some graphs.

The number of voters I predict for Sunday is 565, although I will likely be wrong because the number is impossible to predict. If we take in to account New Era's sudden influx of voters from nowhere, UKPP's relatively poor turnout and the demographic changes of the country's political parties, we can expect to see the following:



Basically, the results are to be expected. Despite TUP's lead in the previous months, the surge of activity in UKPP should see them take the most votes, but not by much! UKRP have a lot of support from the smaller parties and should get a relitavely decent vote, and ESO also have a nice support-base in the PCP. (Although from what I've heard, PCP will be in support of NE this month, though I doubt it will make many of there members want to vote NE)

Predicted Congress Makeup

This is a little easier to predict than the actual voter turnout, because no matter how many voters turn out, the numbers in congress should look like this:


Sorry for the hard to read data labels!

So as you can see, a relatively predictable congress. UKPP and TUP should be fighting each other hard to take extra seats, although it's clear that the UKPP will win this little battle this month round.


But the main point of my article, with more graphs! :

What are we overlooking?

It's widely known that the UKPP and New Era are close friends - they offer each other unilateral support, and it's hard to actually differentiate the two parties. So, what if they both combined their efforts with their new-found power? Consider this scenario:

TUP run candidate X in the CP elections, gathering support from ESO and a couple non-top5 parties. Candidate X fights candidate Y, who is run from New Era and supported by UKPP. It's a very close election, but Candidate X narrowly beats UKPP/NE and takes the CP spot.

Unfortunately, the election doesn't end here. TUP and New Era quickly find faults in this candidate, as do all political opponents to their leader. They decide between the two of them that he must be impeached. Can they do it? Let the graph do the talking:



Should there be an impeachment, UKPP and NE basically have at least 50% of congress to get their candidate through. It's down to PR work on whether the other 16% of votes can be found. My prediction is that ESO will mostly stand by TUP, and it should fall within a range of 3 votes to decide the fate of our CP.

In other votes, NE and UKPP already have the 50% majority needed to do things such as start wars, they could potentially find us a new natural enemy against the other parties' will based on the above figures, and they even have the monthly tax under their control.

Summary

So whatever happens on Sunday, we're in for troubling times over the next month and NE and UKPP excersise their domination of congress. While most of them are responsible with power, certain 'social elites' (Yes, even your parties have them, all parties do, it's human nature) have proven why they shouldn't be trusted in the past, and this leaves us in a potentially dangerous position.

Whoever you vote for on Sunday, keep the nation's security at the forefront of your mind!


Thanks for reading,
Joshua Whelan