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Thinking something different? Different expectations? Different advices? Things I missed? Make a comment and let eUNL know your opinion!

Predicting the Election Outcome: I&W again the biggest, but with a small margin. Small parties gaining terrain.

Being currently completely independent regarding UNL politics, I can finally look at the elections neutrally. I have had to monitor the elections very closely last months as PP of respectively BP and later YOUR Party, but I still can’t resist to follow it.

Although the voting day is still young, I would like to guess who will be elected. Based on that, I want to express some advice to the different parties. Note that everything in this article is just for fun, and just expectations. Reality can be completely different when the results are in! I will not update this article, so at the end you can see how far off I was.

I base my expectations on party performances in the latest elections, current amount of votes, official candidates, activity of users and recent articles. However, it’s still guessing, of course.

Let’s start with the easiest region: Eastern Netherlands. We have 9 seats per region, but Eastern only has 8 candidates. This will also lead to us having only 39 congress members this mandate, as the wildcards still only count 4. Anyway, everybody in East will be elected. (That’s not an expectation, that’s a fact.) Political parties should adjust their voting advice to it, and remove any voting priority on those candidates!

East:
Sybrand80 (I&W)
Peter van der Voort (LSD)
Intenze (I&W)
Pierre Delvaux (WP)
ArtemIvanov (LSD)
qmartijn1 (IP)
Baswai (GLD)
Enuuee (IP)

Northern Netherlands is more difficult, as I have to leave 4 candidates out. I guess that will be Soad-Korn, Czarko and DantePippen (due to not enough XP). The last is guessing between hardcore-gabber, Chris Frigo and wildyownss, but I’m going to leave the latter out, due to being not an official candidate (while Chris Frigo is, and hardcore-gabber has a lot of XP). As LSD has a lot of members, they might be able to turn this around, though.

North:
maartenw (I&W); will be elected with WAY too much votes. Good for this self-esteem, though, so no problem. 😛
kareltje (I&W)
Konrad Neumann (GLD)
niekhzm (I&W)
Jan Appel (IP)
Shakerr (LSD)
Antiko (I&W)
Hardcore-gabber (IP)
Chris Frigo (IP)

Okay, next is Southern Netherlands. This is easier again, as I have to leave only one out. As the candidates running here are mainly very well-known politicians, I guess LSD will not be able to get kevinkraay in, due to his low XP. So that would leave:

South:
Sarah Voorhees (I&W)
Mattio (LSD)
Markus Bell (IP)
Gulpener (I&W)
Jos Alembic (WP)
Matevz (LSD)
Myers11 (GLD)
Miro86 (GLD)
Ian Reinders (WP)

And then the big lottery: Western Netherlands. First of all, I guess all wildcards will be distributed in West. Second, there are a lot of I&W members here, who will probably vote for themselves. I haven’t seen any voting instructions for them, and I doubt if their late tactical voting can save a lot this time. It will probably gain them around 1 seat, and I can only guess which one. I’ll go for lee1986, because of his XP. I am going to leave out the following candidates: Gespenst Jager, henrhinokaca, Dennis Baks, Francois d'Foix, Joe Memphis, verbovince and briepe.

West:
Steingrimur Illugi (GLD)
Ipix (I&W)
adrione (LSD)
Sharky1510 (LSD)
Daniel Parker (IP)
hollenboer (I&W)
CEO Trainee (I&W)
Hans Rienveld (LSD)
mark de bruijn (GLD)
jancoopmans (LSD)
kevinn (I&W)
lee1986 (I&W)
stancel (WP); only when WP focuses!

Summing up the results, my guess for the election outcome is:
I&W: 13 seats (33.3😵
LS😨 9 seats (23.1😵
IP: 7 seats (17.9😵
GL😨 6 seats (15.4😵
WP: 4 seats (10.2😵
Total: 39 seats

This would change the political spectrum quite a bit, distributing the seats more equally over the different parties than currently.

An advice per party in order to maximize their results. This is just my opinion, the Party Presidents or their representatives will of course determine the real course!

I&W should get organized. Maybe I have missed the Voting Sheet, article with Official Candidates, etc, but it used to be much more structured. That structure needs to get back before the end of the day to obtain good results, and to utilize the famous I&W Last Minute Voting to the maximum.

LSD always jumps out due to their bad (or absent) tactical voting. The voting sheet looks in order now, the communication has been established through articles, the only thing they needs is a few people who will hold their vote ‘till the last minutes. If they manage to improve that these elections, they might surprise here.

WP is new to the elections. We cannot expect a huge amount of tactical voting and structured voting sheets. However, that is not the most important. For WP goes that activity is the key. As much members as possible must vote, and maybe even a few from outside the party. Every vote counts!

GLD just has to stay cool. They have only 6 candidates, which will lead to almost no wasted votes on people who will not be elected. If they stay cool, monitor the elections from time to time, and hold some votes in case of emergencies, they can get all candidates elected.

IP’s success depends all on Northern Netherlands. They have 4 candidates running there, of which they need at least 3 to be elected. If they focus on North, and have just sufficient (not too much!) votes for Daniel (West) and Markus (South), it will lead to the best results.

Thinking something different? Different expectations? Different advices? Things I missed?

Make a comment and let eUNL know your opinion!

Regards,

Boklevski
Your Gambler for Election Guesses