PowerSpin analysis

Day 4,943, 05:08 • Published in Turkey Turkey • by millyi

In the past days we had a PowerSpin (eating money) fortune wheel.
Before trying to spend all my CC on Plato’s creature, I decided to collect some data. Btw thanks to all who made a comment and shared the info.

DISCLAIMER:
The collected sample is really small, I hope to update it on the nextPowerSpin events. And as some of you probably know, a little sample of data can drive you to wrong conclusions, but it’s a start. That is why this analysis will continue in time.

DATA:
I asked players how many CC they spent to reach the 500 Gold jackpot. Sometimes it was the approximate number the players remembered. The others told the next spin cost. All these data were converted to total CC spent and was calculated the number of spins made to reach 500G.


On the plot above you can see the distribution of number of spins with two different bin sizes (10 and 5)
It seems like a skewed normal distribution (see disclaimer) with the mode on the bin of 40 spins.
What makes me worry is this right tail 😃 and soon you will see why



The next is the CC spent and the net CC win. The net win was calculated assuming the gold price of 550 CC.
As already mentioned the right tail effect is that some players spent much more CC to win 500G. You can see it in the negative net win. In the worst case from the collected data the net loss can reach 1kk CC. So if you are poor and unlucky (like me) maybe at some point it’s better to stop 😃






The Average net win was 63k CC.
If we all were lucky (and how to make everyone lucky, filter away some values… was curious and filtered away the values of CC spent over 500k) the average net win would be of 11k CC.
BUT, but as already said, we have this big tail… so you could spend more than 1250k CC or more to reach the final jackpot.

3 DAYS
It seems a good idea to test your fortune in all 3 days of the event. If in one out of 3 you happen to be on the loss tail, the other 2 should limit the loss.

PS If someone wants to help this analysis please share your results. You can leave a comment or send me a pm 😉

PPS You should be ready to spend at least 80-90k CC if you are lucky.

PPPS Read well the disclaimer 😃 so you don’t say millyi told me to spend all my CC in PowerSpin