Currency Manipulation [Long Run Strategy]
Aries Prime
Ever since airstrikes we have seen the value of our currency appreciate measured by gold prices and wages. I wanted to briefly share with you some points and what my advice would be in the future.
1. Airstrikes will continue to contract the money supply.
2. Gold prices and wages will continue to fall in response.
3. Food and Weapons SHOULD fall but prices seem sticky so there may be a lag effect as well as consistent demand for things like weapons.
4. Eventually the currency will become so deflated that the mods will have to inject currency back into the game through buying up goods on the market or some other tool.
This is what we already know and from what I have gathered from game mechanics and talking with players it can be safely assumed that #4 will come to pass eventually the only thing that is questionable is when it will happen. Below are my suggested steps if you want to profit from the situation.
1. Any goods you may have stockpiled, such as weapons, SELL NOW. These prices will not stay relatively high for long and you will need the IEP for the next steps. Selling gold is also an option but since gold is always a high demand and useful asset it may be better to keep some on hand.
2. Hold all IEP you have and use it sparingly. You will need that cash liquid for when gold prices plummet even more.
3. As soon as the mods enact a system to increase the money supply BUY GOLD. Gold will be at the lowest point right when this happens so please jump on the opportunity immediately if you want to make some money. It may be wise to buy up gold once the price drops to a level you feel comfortable with or if you have knowledge of when the mods will increase the money supply.
4. Wait for a number of days until you feel ready to sell your gold at a considerable profit. My advice would be to wait until the mods stop increasing the money supply since gold will be worth the most IEP at this point although it may take considerable time.
*I did not take foreign markets into consideration but they make be a good place to sell goods if their prices are currently higher
This is a long term plan and can take anywhere from a week to a few months. Based on a rough analysis of the monetary market though we have seen it drop considerably in past weeks due to airstrikes so I would not expect it to take too much longer, a month max, but I could be wrong. Any comments or revisions are welcome since I am fairly new to the economic mechanics of this game.
Comments
v+s
Having any sort of long term monetary plan is ridiculous . Great way to lose all your cash .
Do you actually read anything you post in or do you have a list of generic insults you throw out depending on the situation?
Always happy to see an Irishman take an interest in econ : )
however your analysis is lacking important variables:
The increasing scarcity of cash is mainly a combination impact of MPPs (which destroys large amounts cash) the closer of the buying bot (which created currency) .
Airstrikes are only an auxiliary influence.
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/rocket-impacts-2069694/1/20
Cash values are nowhere near historic highs. A gold used to buy
There is an inbuilt system for currency production: Congress print proposal.
This feature allows countries to create currency at a fixed 0.005 rate.
With the current universal currency system removing nationalized print inflation liability, 0.005 is the effective hardcap on currency value.
And unless a change in game mechanics takes place, that is where it will be heading in the longterm
castaneda Day 1,756, 06:59
"Heres hoping i can sneakily learn how to make money "sweet" styleeeee"
castaneda Day 1,774, 00:59
"Having any sort of long term monetary plan is ridiculous . Great way to lose all your cash"
^That is why you fail ; )
Didn't know about the MPP's destroying cash but that is good to know. Also with the currency printing you are basically saying congress can print 200 IEP per gold which you would be right should cap the market at about that range. Still without the bot buying goods and the introduction of airstrikes it would still means our currency will appreciate until 1 gold = 200IEP for at that range countries can produce their own gold for as much. Thanks for pointing out those two areas.
Also yes rockets will cause the demand for all weapon types to be fairly consistent so prices will always be somewhat higher then reflected in the monetary market. I would still expect prices to drop somewhat as the money supply goes down but essentially prices are very sticky.
Idd AP I said your analysis was missing a few variables, but you had read the ones you were aware of correctly, and appear to be adding the new ones to them correctly : )
The values of q1-q6 wpns initial went haywire when rockets were introduced.
Since then they have (with a marginal variance) steadily progressed downward.
Only other thing I forgot but just looked up was the gold cap. You are only allowed to buy 10 gold per day but considering the money supply will continue to decrease as long as you hold IEP the prices of goods and gold will decrease and you will make a profit. The 10 gold cap is a bit of a set back though for high wealth individuals.
A long time ago it seems, Sweet said that gold was dead and cash was the new king. At that stage 1 gold was worth over 1800 IEP. The one thing you can be 100% certain of is that we need to gold up upgrade. You can't be sure of cash or the value of things that cash buys. What you can be reasonably sure of, is that if Sweet says 'x' and 'x' starts to happen, then you can put your money down.
So if I had liquidated my companies shortly after Sweet made that statement I would now be 450,000 cc..
..better off
So my advice? Hire a good accountant.
PS. If you're looking for a good accountant, in The Malcontents we have Loouman, long term economic strategist, the ex-MoF Sweet, and the current MoF, Dreaded. I'm sure if people joined we can work something out on the costs.
Economics, and Mal's marketing?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDW_Hj2K0wo