Butterfly effect and generation change - Pillangóhatás és generációink
Nalaja
--- magyarul alul, a kép alatt ---
Many old players, some in Hungary, a lot in Serbia faced suddenly the situation that Hungary voted almost unanimously to leave the Asteria alliance, so the formal alliance (not the MPP of course) with Serbia is ceased. How could it be happened? Is it the end of the SERHUN, the longest alliance and true brotherhood of the two gaming communities? I don't think so, however there are some things and processes we should aware of.
Butterfly effect
What were the causes of the Hungarian move? A NAP with Bulgaria against the charter? Harsh debate in an alliance meeting? A sole player, albeit the SG of alliance, hitting against a member country? These things were happened before a hundred times in any alliance. Why now? A butterfly raises his wings and a storm starts? The effect is well known in the physics (sensitive dependency on initial conditions), as a characteristics of any chaotic system. And now we have a real chaos, a real mass. Serbia, Hungary and Romania.
Arch-enemies and eternal friends - 2 in 1
SERHUN is the oldest and perhaps the strongest brotherhood in the erep (maybe the SPOLAND is similar). In spite of any RL historical issues, Hungary was the first friend of the newborn eSerbia and later, as the Serbs became the strongest power in the game, they always acted as true friends. Romania is RL the almost only neighbour of Serbia who was always friendly or at least not hostile, so a ROMSER is a natural thing for both Serbs and Romanians. For the Serbs, another kudo could be the 'voting on Kosovo' issue in erep, which was the end of the relations between Serbia and Turkey and a new friendship to Romania. Meanwhile, Romania and Hungary are thought as 'natural enemies', widespeadly in the two nations RL. This has a strong imprint also in the game.
A year ago, a long process reached a new level: Serbia and Romania made MPP. A real turning point in this story. The actual Hungarian president did not raise veto and perhaps all Serbians thought everything is in good way. However, this made quite a rupture in the Hungarian gaming community. Romanian intentions are more obvious: friendship with Serbia, possibly against Hungary. They are the only ones in this unpaired threesome, without internap ruptures on this issue. Hungary joined the Asteria just because of Serbia and Slovenia, the old friends, only half-hearted, because of the Romanians. For my Serb friends: it is like you were forced to be allies with Croatia. Quite a mess, isn't it? Quite a chaos, waiting for the wing of that butterfly to be raised.
Where to split?
There are three obvious outcomes: (1) stay these three countries together, albeit of all of the above (2) Reviving the SERHUN, without, and perhaps finally against Romania and (3) Raising the ROMSER, without, and perhaps finally against Hungary. The first option needs a lot of work to invest, as it is not an equilibrium. (This work was not invested in the last week...) A lot of mines - remember this single NAP, debate and SG hitting, almost nothings in the large picture but exploding the option (1). Both options (2) and (3) would cause internal rupture, rather in Serbia, the (3) also in Hungary.
Generation change behind
What I feel behind all of these things, is the natural generation change in the three countries, three gaming communities. SERHUN is obvious for oldfags, both in the two countries. Old Romanian players have already the experience of deleting Hungary. Old Hungarian players have already the experience of deleting Romania. A lot of times. Two years of continuous wars. Boring. Even a cooperation would be a good challenge to be tried. But there are a lot of newborns. Newborns? Playing for a year a seeing our 'arch-enemy' is an unwilling friend, making hidden steps against us, while we want to make hidden steps against them - and no war? Meanwhile the young Serbians accept the SERHUN as a heritage but thinks Romania as a natural friend. If this theory is true - and I think so - the chaos is not only among the countries but also between the generations. The decision seems to be in the hands of the Serbian community.
As Phil Collins said, that's all. However, as a Hungarian oldfag, I cannot end this article with anything else that:
SERHUN forever! 🙂
-- magyarul --
Sok régi játékos, jópáran Magyarországon és még többen Szerbiában hirtelen szembesültek azzal, hogy Magyarország szinte egyhangúan az Asteria szövetségből történő kilépés mellett döntött, így a formális szövetség (de nem az MPP) megszakadt Szerbiával. Ez lenne hát a SERHUN vége, amely a legrégebbi és legerősebb testvériség az erepen a két játékos-közösség közt? Én nem gondolom ezt, de vannak dolgok és folyamatok, amelyekkel tisztában kell lennünk.
Pillangóeffektus
Melyek voltak a magyar lépés okai? Egy alapítóokirat-ellenes NAP? Éles vita a szövetségi tanácsban? Egy játékos, mégha a szövetség főtitkára is, egy tagország ellen üt? Százszor megtörtént ilyesmi minden szövetségben. Miért most? A pillangó felemeli a szárnyát és vihart okoz? A fizikában jól ismert effektus ez, a kaotikus rendszerek jellemzője. És most igazi káoszt csináltunk, igazi katyvaszt. Szerbia, Magyarország és Románia.
Ősellenségek és örök barátok - egyet fizet, kettőt kap
A SERHUN a legrégebbi és talán legerősebb szövetség az erepen (talán a spányol-lengyel SPOLAND hasonló). Minden RL történelmi háttér ellenére Magyarország volt a frissen megszületett Szerbia első barátja és később, ahogy a szerbek az erep vezető hatalma lettek, mindig önzetlen, kérdés nélküli barátaink voltak, most is azok. Románia a való életben talán Szerbia egyetlen olyan szomszédja, amellyel sosem volt ellenséges viszonyban, így a szerbek és a románok számára a ROMSER eléggé természetes. A szerbeknél további piros pont lehetett a koszovói szavazás (a játékosok döntöttek, hogy Koszovó függetlenként vagy Szerbia részeként legyen az erep része), amely véget vetett a szerb-török együttműködésnek és megteremtette a román-szerb barátságot. Mindeközben a magyarok és románok RL is nagyrészt ősellenségként tekintenek egymásra, és ennek komoly hatása van a játékra is.
Egy éve egy hosszú folyamat lépett magasabb szintre: Szerbia és Románia MPP-t kötött. Ez igazi fordulópont a történetben. Az akkori magyar elnök nem emelt vétót és a szerbek joggal gondolhatták, hogy minden a legnagyobb rendben van, pedig ez igazi törést indított el a magyar játékosközösségben. A román szándék világos: barátság Szerbiával, lehetőleg ellenünk. Ők az egyetlenek ebben a "páratlan hármasban", ahol ez nem okoz semmilyen belső törést. Magyarország a régi barátai, Szerbia és Szlovénia miatt lépett be az Asteriába, a románok miatt fél szívvel. Szerb barátaimnak: ez olyan, mintha Titeket kényszerítenének a körülmények egy horvát szövetségre. Jó nagy katyvasz, mi? Káosz, amely szinte várta a lepkeszárny csapását.
Hol fog eltörni?
Három nyilvánvaló kimenetele van a dolognak: (1) a fentiek ellenére együttmaradunk így hárman (2) Felélesztjük a SERHUN-t, Románia nélkül és valószínűeg ellenük és (3) Megmarad a ROMSER, nélkülünk és valószínűleg ellenünk. Az első verzió fenntartása - minthogy nyilvánvalóan nem egyensúlyi helyzet - rengeteg munkát igényel. (Ez hiányzott a múlt héten...) Rengeteg akna - ugye, egy NAP, egy éles vita, egy ellenünk ütő főtitkár, semmiségek az összképben, de rögtön felrobbantották az (1) opciót. A (2) és (3) mind törést okozna Szerbiában, és a (3) valamennyire nálunk is.
Generációváltás a háttérben
Én valójában egy természetes generációváltást érzek mindemögött a három ország játékos közösségében. A SERHUN nyilvánvaló és egyértelmű a két ország öregjei számára. A régi román játékosok már megtapasztalták, milyen eltörölni minket, és a mi örgjeink is többször bezöldítették Romániát. Két év pingpong, folyamatos háború. Unalmas. Még az együttműködés is izgalmasabb kihívás. Igen ám, de közben az újak. Újak? Akár egy éve itt játszanak, és látják, hogy az "ősellenség" egy vonakodó barát, titkos lépéseket tesz ellenünk, miközben mi is ezt szeretnénk ellenük - és semmi háború? Ahogy a fiatal szerb játékosok egyfajta örökségként elfogadják a SERHUN-t ám Romániára természetes barátként tekintenek. Ha ez az okoskodás igaz, a káosz nemcsak az országok, de a játékosgenerációk közt is ott van. Dönteni pedig valószínűleg Szerbiának kell.
Ahogy Phil Collins mondja: That's all - Ennyi. De mint régi magyar játékos nem fejezhetem be máshogy: SERHUN forever! 🙂
Comments
A végtelenbe, és tovább!
╔══════════════════════════════════════╗
║Korábban van napváltás március 30-ig
╠══════════════════════════════════════╣
║További cikkeket akarsz olvasni? Itt elérheted őket 5 oldalon:
║Legfrissebb cikkek: 1 2 3 4 5
║(ha csirkézik valamelyik oldal, az azt jelenti, hogy nincs annyi cikk)
║Miért reklámozom ezt? Azért, mert amióta szinte divat
║pénzért szavazatokat venni a cikkekre, sok jó cikk
║szorul ki a főoldal top 5-ös listájáról. Sok újságíró
║esik kétségbe, hogy a régebbi szokásosan kedvelt
║témájú cikkei nem tudnak oda eljutni illetve sok
║emberhez el sem érnek. Ezért, hogy
║ezen mesterségesen jónak szavazott cikkek miatt
║mégis valahogy elérjen a többi cikk, így a top 5-ös
║cikkek alatt reklámozom.
╚══════════════════════════════════════╝
BUTT and FLY effect!
korrekt elemzés. V
Egyszer beléptem egy szerb csetszobába, ahol osztottak nem csak szerbeknek ellátmányt, hogy segítsünk egy szerb csatát, és ott volt egy illető, aki szerbbül mondogatta a magáét a magyarokról. Nem úgy tűnt, mintha nagyon szeretne minket. Ez a szerb barátság dolog azért nem tökéletes.
soha semmi sem 100 %. Egy-egy ellenző mindig akad, mindenhol. Ez még nem jelent törést az általános véleményen... csak ha átlép egy bizonyos küszöböt.
RL kapcsolatunk talán a szerbbel a legkiélezettebb. Ellentmondásos a SERHUN pont ezért.
Hálistennek nem vagyunk egyedül. Egy másik régi barát a segítségünkre siet: TY FYROM or Macedonia 😃
jah...csílét segítendő 😃
valaki mondja már meg végre ki volt az az akkori magyar elnök ,,,,, nem igaz hogy nincs 1 árva vamzer se a bandában ......gyerünk valaki köpjön már végre 😃 most olyan összeomlás van hogy minden belefér ....😁)
charlie50
nalaja én nem ezt kérdeztem 😃
akkor mit?
hogy egész konkrét legyek én nem karakter nevet kértem . elég lett volna ha azt válaszolod hogy NINCS...
Nice article, i believe that you both(Hungary and Romania) failed to see the bigger picture which in this case was a totall war. Now only time can tell what is going to happen.
My major problem is that the Serbian leaders (driven by their hatred for SPoland) took SerHun and Hungary granted, and forcibly turned Hungary against its closest RL and one of their closest ingame friend Poland. That I cannot forgive.
Hungary did that in past when eSerbia left eRussia....
I saw no complains from eSerbia for the move that eHungary did in that time.
What? Hungarian leaders (driven by their hatred for Russia) took SerHun and Serbia granted and forcibly turned Serbia against her closest RL and one of their closest ingame friend Russia?? How, who, when??
@Bikkin
When Phoenix dissolved eHungary pushed idea of forming alliance with ePoland. One of the obstacles was alliance with eRussia so yeah...
eSerbia basiclly blindly followed eHungary in next alliance leaving some of friendships behind.
But this idea is basically wrong! We have absolutely no hatred towards Russia - especially not these days - we never had. At least not in those 52 months I remember. Serbia simply chose Poland and the damagehood instead of Russia, but your Russian relations did not deteriorate. Neither ours. We simply had no more MPP with them, that's all.
@Bikkin
Did you try to get MPP with them since that happened?
Even when CoT and TWO worked together their MPP was something that neither eHungary nor eSerbia had. Reasoning for that lies exactly in actions taken in times when Phoenix was done.
All in all I don't know why you continue to think that eSerbia did anything because its "heatred" against Spoland which really isn't the case... What we talk about has nothing with what article was written in the first place. I wrote what I wrote to GregoryG just to show that not only eHungary was hurted by actions of eSerbia in past but at times it was other way around and you clearly couldn't see actions like this taken by eSerbia...
Lol you invited Romania to proTWO status you were the biggestro fan in 2013. You are one of the responsible for the current situation.
Hungary did not turned against Poland. Poland NE'd us.
But Poland and Hungary was undoubtedly forced onto different sides of the current world war by Serbia. Hungary did not even try to have a special kind of neutrality with Poland. Hungary wasn't allowed to NAP Poland or have some kind of friendship agreement, and the other half of Asteria NAPd Bulgaria. That is a double standard there.
Anyway I blame the incredibly incompetent and weak Hungarian diplomacy of the last more than half year
Lets take a look on past events:
-Asteria wants a campaign against Poland,HUN refuse to grant pass to RO-->due HUN love towards Poland
-HUN refuses to make MPP with RO,while RO was open to MPP-->HUN undermines the alliance integrity and leave nice propaganda material to Sirius
-HUN ignored Slovenia until the last possible movement--> selfish move from HUN
RO NAP evenst
1,HUN president mistakenly nods to NAP
2,After realising the mistake,make an ultimatum towards RO(which with they dont even have MPP) but they dont make similar demands to Serbia/Greece
3,Asteria attempts to offer compromise:
a,Serbia NE Bulgaria - Hungarian president rejects
b,Romania NE Poland-Hungarian president rejects
Hungarian president only demands RO to broke NAP with BUL which he previously nodded!
Its clear that HUN government intended to quit Asteria no matter what and they found the excuse to do so.
Whatever the true motivation I dont know:
Either an unreasonable hate towards Romania or love to Poland.
In the end no matter HUN spit in the face of Asteria.
Hungarian PoW in my yesterday's article
http://www.erepublik.com/hu/article/2383005/1/20
Cant be more simple yet describing the whole situation. Nice reply. 🙂
[removed]
Nalaja thats not an excuse for your president behaviour.He wanted to quit Asteria and found an excuse to do so.Nothing more nothing less.
Hungary invaded Austria and Italy to shield Asteria, Serbia, Slovenia and incidentally Romania from Poland.
The Chilean and Polish NE was aided by Greek and Roma(nian) tanking in Hungary RW-s, and Asteria assistance to Bulgarian attack against Hungary.
So Romania and Greece stabbed Hungary in the back and Serbia turned a blind eye to the action of their "orthodox brothers". Effectively the Balkan trio ousted Hungary from Asteria..
If you are seriously looking for the beginning of military action look for Greek avatars in Ukraine RW-s even a week before the NE-s. And Asteria's Romanian/Greek/Serb leaders looked the other way. And after this we still went to Italy and RW-d Germany from Switzerland to save the skin of Slovenia, and got betrayed Asteria SG who fought against us and sold us to Bulgaria. Nevermind.
From the very moment this alliance started, I constantly fight for Hun interests. You cannot blame Greeks for the actions of 20 people. Yes, I know that these 20 people pay their way into the battle, that means they get much damage done but blaming Greeks in general it's completely unfair. You could take a look into my profile, and check my top damage. My previous one was when we successfully defended a RW against Ukr..
I don not know and do not count the number of Greek avatars anywhere. What I only know is that their damage was reasonable.
I counted more than 20 people.
Oh I forgot about the two Ukrainian regions we RW-d for the Romanians about a day before the Bulgarian NAP story. Someone started the RW-s then the president shouted liberate, so no accident it was done for Romania who thus got fishbonus with Bessarabia. I know we are crap allies and Romania is awesome though, I know our place.
well, it can be looked at this way. But what is this way? You consistently suppose bad intentions from Hu - and constantly dismiss Ro actions as mistakes. That is normally called a biased POV in argumentation and it leads to crooked conclusions.
Wrong. An obvious backstab from a supposed-to-be ally was not used immediately by our gracious government to quit Asteria. Rather we generously offered Roumania a chance to restore good faith and a minimal level of trust among the alliance members by accepting their step as a mistake and NEing Bulgaria immediately. Their answer was that Vlachi MoFA - and the SG of the alliance in person - hit two BHs against us in a 3* harsh battle of Hungary.
So this alliance - for a lack of trust - was not viable for Hungary anymore.
-Asteria wants a campaign against Poland,HUN refuse to grant pass to RO-->due HUN love towards Poland - Yes, and we fighted against Poland in Subcarpathia when they tried to pass to Romania, so it is vica versa.
-HUN refuses to make MPP with RO,while RO was open to MPP-->HUN undermines the alliance integrity and leave nice propaganda material to Sirius - Romania tanking in the Ukrainan rw's like it was their daily routine ( and this has been before the Asteria was founded and they are doing this right now to ). We are need an allie like this? This is not "undermines the alliance integrity"?
NAP events:
Our President was AFK and they didn't even care to ask his options! They did this deliberately ( they know that Bulgaria will propose us as NE ).
And why would we compromise when the olah's did this mess to us ( That is why we asked them to fix it themselves, and not the Serbs. )? In the past they didn't have a problem to broke a NAP whit Hungary, not even once!
Then why didn't they do it whit Bulgaria to?
Pride Power Hungary o/
RO ♡ HU
How about NOT.
= D
Komolyan mondom, hogy 2014 eddigi legjobb cikke 🙂
cool analysis in english, cheers and tasmax+1
Hun and Rom are good allies, so do your homework and make it possible to stay all together : )
I think in a few month this is going to be much easier when the alliance fit on stable legs.
Hail Hun !!!
ASDASDASDASD
Hun and rom are good allies XDDDDDDDDDDDDD
When was it possible? Dogs are better than roms....
reported? : )
Oh god, again a barking dog. 🙂
We going to make it possible...
Y, assteria SG make it possible with 2 BH... keep dreaming. 🙂
No way! (From an old fag)
Then what???
End of SerHun, end of friendship...