SomeONE's fight, SomeONE runs

Day 1,552, 18:49 • Published in USA USA • by stewy

So, let's take a somewhat different look at Top 5 party elections. I've spoken to some new people lately on IRC who have told me that they joined the big parties b/c if they want to do politics, they need to be in one of them since more people means more chances to get in.. Or does it??

The Top 5 parties have a total of 3,182 members. USWP- 1012.. AMP- 804..
Feds- 535.. INCI- 458.. USMJ- 373..

[img=300x300]http://chartmaker.mathwarehouse.com/render.php?&download=0&type=pie&leg=side&d0=373&n0=USMJ=373&d1=458&n1=INCI=458&d2=535&n2=Feds=535&d3=804&n3=AMP=804&d4=1018&n4=USWP=1018&number=5&threeD=-1&colorScheme=10&chartTitle=Top%205%20party%20members&transparent=1&exploded=1[/img]

Regions won out of the 57 on election day.. USWP- 19.. AMP- 16.. INCI- 12.. Feds- 6.. USMJ- 3.. BoL- 1..
[img=300x300]http://chartmaker.mathwarehouse.com/render.php?&download=0&type=pie&leg=side&d0=1.754&n0=BoL=1.754&d1=5.263&n1=USMJ=5.263&d2=10.526&n2=Feds=10.526&d3=21.053&n3=INCI=21.053&d4=28.07&n4=AMP=28.07&d5=33.333&n5=USWP=33.333&number=6&threeD=1&colorScheme=5&chartTitle=Percent%20of%20total%20Congress%20Seats&transparent=-1&exploded=1&percentOnPie=-1&r=255&g=255&b=255&tr=0&tg=0&tb=0[/img]
As you can see, the biggest party did in fact take the most seats this month, but would you have gotten on the ballot for them??

Now lets take a look at your chance of being a candidate for the Top 5 parties and take available regions (57) divided by total members in the party.. (Note that these percent's would actually be even less given that the Top 5 normally leave a few regions for 6th party candidates)
[img=300x300]http://chartmaker.mathwarehouse.com/render.php?&download=0&type=pie&leg=side&d0=5.632&n0=USWP=5.632&d1=7.09&n1=AMP=7.09&d2=10.654&n2=Feds=10.654&d3=12.445&n3=INCI=12.445&d4=15.282&n4=USMJ=15.282&number=5&threeD=1&colorScheme=25&chartTitle=Chance%20of%20being%20on%20Top%205%20party%27s%20ballot&transparent=-1&exploded=-1&percentOnPie=-1&r=255&g=255&b=255&tr=0&tg=0&tb=0[/img]

Let's factor in some competition and see if we can find out your approximate chance of getting into congress. In this case we will run with the assumption that each region only has 3 actual candidates (2 being blockers) and also add in a 6th party (BoL) as an example, and have them run 10 candidates, so we will remove 2 possible regions from each Top 5 party... (this is obviously only an approximation, since there's no way to know every party's plans for election day, who's actually a candidate or blocker, how many regions were given to 6th parties, or how the two-clicker will vote) Math- regions (55) / total members / 3 (people running in the region)
[IMG=300x300]http://chartmaker.mathwarehouse.com/render.php?&download=0&type=pie&leg=side&d0=1.812&n0=USWP=1.812&d1=2.28&n1=AMP=2.28&d2=3.427&n2=Feds=3.427&d3=4.003&n3=INCI=4.003&d4=4.915&n4=USMJ=4.915&d5=3.115&n5=BoL=3.115&number=6&threeD=1&colorScheme=5&chartTitle=Chance%20of%20being%20in%20congress&transparent=-1&exploded=-1&percentOnPie=-1&r=255&g=255&b=255&tr=0&tg=0&tb=0[/IMG]

So, what do we end up with in all of this? Fact: The biggest party ended up with the most congress seats this month.. Fact: Your chance of getting onto a Top 5 ballot is actually better in smaller party.. And what I found most amusing, was that without counting up all the variables of election day, the math says you may actually have a better chance of getting in congress in a smaller party then a large one..