FP Results: 13 point lead on eve of election
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by Alias Vision
Monday has come and gone, my announced deadline for publishing the results of the latest poll missed due to dastardly virus and microbes (nasty little buggers won't leave me alone).
I wanted to publish yesterday so that the article would disappear early election day. Instead it will be up for everyone to point and laugh at how inaccurate it all is. Oh well.
On to the results!
Participation was down for this exercise but I saw no evidence whatsoever of stuffing the ballot box which is good.
The results include only those that indicated they would vote on the 5th in the Canadian election. Not that the data wasn't interesting when you include those that didn't intend to vote (or couldn't) but they were equally distributed amongst all options, so not including them had little to no impact and makes the analysis that much cleaner.
I was hoping for a top 5 party distribution along this ratio: 1-2-2-2-3 with whatever I could get for no party/non top 5. Maybe even have MDP weighted at 2.5. I didn't get there as the final participation numbers break down as follows:
*other includes non top 5 party members and those without a party.
As expected the CPF had the highest number of respondents but that illustrates the bias in the survey seeing as it is my home party and that I would naturally have better contacts there. It was my hope that party leaders would help spread the word but I hadn't setup for that by the time I published (I am now).
The second thing that jumps out is the high participation of TMS. This is not surprising considering their recent and ongoing media presence. A growing party naturally has more momentum and their members will get more involved compared to older parties that are perhaps just more settled in their position.
Finally we see surprisingly small numbers from the CCP and PFC. In the case of one it may be a feeling of being disconnected from the party, in the case of the other it may be a lack of accessibility on the survey part (something I may remedy time permitting in the future as I would like to capture those opinions).
The survey being dominated by the three parties with main contenders in the race, I expected to see a large number of firm, decided voters and that is exactly what I saw. 80% said their decision was made. That still leaves 20% up for grabs and if the race ends up being close, those can be the deciding voices.
Each party overwhelmingly (but not unanimously in any of the cases) supported their candidates.
*other includes none of the above, don't know and won't say.
As you can see, in this small sample TheSmoke holds nearly a 13 point lead over Rylde for the big chair with Cypher Rahl very strongly in third.
One series of questions I didn't ask but would be interesting to know at this point is who everyone's second choices would be. Because we can see the election results progress as people vote, voting intention can and will change. There may be various efforts to vote strategically depending on the desired outcomes.
If Cypher Rahl's strong survey support manifests early, would it encourage more people to vote for him? If it does, where does he takes the votes from? Rylde or TheSmoke?
Finally I asked the question, who do you think will win.
*other includes none of the above, don't know and won't say.
So even if there is a CPF bias in the poll (and there is), the data continues to support the narrative that TheSmoke is currently the candidate to beat.
Some additional notes beyond the survey results and analysis.
I've the experience of 5 CP races to draw from. TheSmoke should feel at this point that it is his race to lose. He has strong support from the biggest political party in Canada. He has a big idea that can define his presidency. He has little to no negative baggage drawing into the race.
However, like any race, momentum is key. Rylde has clearly seized momentum in the past three days. You can see it by his increased level of activity, by his media presence and by the hesitation of most to attack him. He also has a strong base of support. He has a defining campaign pitch. He also has the biggest weakness, one that he has attempted to address but keeps undermining himself. That is his ability to conduct diplomacy.
A focused Rylde will surmount a 13 point deficit on election day unless TheSmoke has an answer prepared for his audience. An unfocused but motivated Rylde (and he is always motivated) can also surmount the stated deficit but his stewardship of Canada moving forward may be disastrous.
The wild card is Cypher Rahl. He can do very well, especially if the votes come in early. Although most of his support comes from TMS, he has enough popularity in other parties to draw equally from both Rylde's and TheSmokes potential base. Depending on the final pitches we see today and how seriously the three main candidates approach tomorrow, surprise potential exists.
As always, take these results and analysis in the spirit they are meant to be shared and not too seriously. Thank you everyone who participated, I hope I can count on you to continue doing so in the future as I can't do these alone.
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Comments
Nicely done, voted.
Great analysis, how I missed these when you were in eIndia etc!
With PFC and CCP supporting Rylde and CPF only getting minor external party support, this election will be close indeed.
Cypher Rahl will split the vote. Rylde and Smoke are pretty much opposite ends of a spectrum. Their supporters are highly unlikely to switch to the other end, however, Cypher has appeal to each end.
Cypher has swagger for Rylde supporters who don't like Rylde's prickles with respect to diplomacy.
Cypher has "working man personality" for Smoke supporters who don't want to support a party branded as "the man".
I don't think Cypher has enough support to win but I believe he has enough support to spoil the election for one candidate.
If only Mary Chan had declared earlier....
great work
I'm still saying Cypher will be 4th.
'Awrence4CP
Cyphers home party is made up of mostly ex-MDP players who would otherwise vote for me. Looks to me to be a mostly lulz campaign that will steal few votes from TheSmoke most likely giving him the win.
Kinda regret ever making the first muppet article in hindsight.
I think this will be one of the closest races we have seen in a while
The Wild card speaks... http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-me4cp-uniting-the-factions-best-of-both-worlds--2370406/1/20
I like surveys. Hope to see more, even if eRepublik seems to have wonky political mechanics and rules.
I guess I'll speak as a n00b to goings on here. I like TheSmoke. Been talking to him in PM's since before we came here. Good sense of humor and understands trust / commitment, important things to me. I like Rylde. Only recently been speaking with him. Has an all or nothing attitude. Jumps into the middle of shit with both feet (but not without looking first). I like to stir the pot myself. These two could represent my ego and alter ego. Unfortunately I know nothing of Cypher. Like I said, I'm a n00blet here.
" He can do very well, especially if the votes come in early. Although most of his support comes from TMS, he has enough popularity in other parties to draw equally from both Rylde's and TheSmokes potential base."
All votes garnered from TMS would have normally gone to Rylde, so the presumption that he steals equally isn't true.
Although on the flip side, most of the players that jumped to TMS from MDP are also smart, well informed players that have been strong parts of the MDP's core for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if their answer on a survey is different than what they actually do in the ballot box.
Based on current results, where 19% said they'd vote Cypher while he only has about 8.5% of the current vote I would say my assumption is mostly accurate.
You are also making an assumption that TMS players would have voted early making up that %8.5... My guess is as old exp players most have likely yet to vote and you'll probably see Rylde start to pull ahead as the eve goes on. My guess here is i have probably pulled more votes away from thesmoke so far than i have Rylde hence the slim lead he holds of 4 votes right now instead of the 13 point lead thesmoke should have according to this survey...
~hyuu~