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eRepublik - Online Strategy Game

eBelgian Electoral Studies, N.1

1,915 jour, 15:43 de dardrew

Hello everybody,
I propose to you in this article to analyze Congress elections of the 25th January with the calculation of interesting electoral indexes. Also in a second part of the article, I propose a quick analysis of the last presidential parties elections. I will make a conclusion to summarize all the things I said in the article (for people who don't want to read everything :p). If you want more information about anything in the article or make a critic (thing that I like :) ), don't hesitate to comment!

The Congress elections of the 25th January 2013

Let's start with the results of the to last Congress elections, expressed in votes and in seats.




As you can see, in the last elections, two new parties appeared in the electoral process. As you know, only the five parties with the most members can participate in the elections in eRepublik.
The party which lost the most in the 25/01/13 Belgian electoral process is the Netherlands BE Back, with a loss of 13.33% of the votes because it was not able to participate to the 25/01 elections. The party which earned the most votes is Babyboom with +12.31% of the votes . It realized a real 'boom' because it was its first participation to Congress elections. Regarding the parties which participated at both elections, All TOgether (ATO) lost 6.09% of the votes, while HOPE has gained 7.69% of the votes.


Now we can watch at some indexes calculated by myself (not very complicated to calculate)




The proportionality of the electoral system

With the Loosemore-Hanby index, we can see the proportionality of the electoral system. As you can see, the index is low, which means that the difference between the %votes expressed and the % of Congressmen(CM) per parties is low. The electoral system in eRepublik is quite proportional. Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that only the five parties with the most members can participate in the elections. This is a huge condition that restrains the proportionality even before the vote and that excludes a lot of small parties.

The concentration/the fragmentation of the electoral system

Three indexes help us to categorize if the eBelgian electoral system is fragmented or concentrated: the electoral concentration, the electoral fragmentation and the electoral effective number of parties (electoral ENP). They reinforce each other.
The system has a low electoral concentration, which means that the sum of %votes of the two biggest parties only reaches 56.92%.
It has a strong electoral fragmentation. This is the probability that 2 random voters vote for two different parties.
Also, it has a high electoral ENP, with 4.37 it means that almost all the parties that ran for the elections can be considered as a complete electoral effective party.
In conclusion, the eBelgian electoral system if very fragmented, there is a big dispersion of the vote between the five parties that run for the election.

The electoral competition

The index is low, which means that between the two first parties there is a very short difference in terms of %votes. The electoral competition is high, aaaaight!

The electoral volatility

Because of the two new parties since the last elections, the electoral volatility in the 25th January elections is important. Many people changed their vote between the 25 December and the 25th january. Due to the strong conditions in order for the parties to participate in the elections, many voters had to change their vote the 25/01/13. We will see in the future if a fourth and a fifth party can stay in the competition and stabilize in the political eBelgian scene.

The 15th February 2013 Presidential Parties Elections




The internal electoral participation
My first observation is something I called the internal electoral participation of the eBelgian parties.
This is the percentage of party members that voted in the PP elections. We can see that the first party in terms of members is also the last party in terms of internal participation, if we remove of the analysis the small parties. Res Belgica is the party with the most internal participation.

The eBelgians electoral participation

- ??? Congress elections participation???? Is it possible to have the population of a eCountry at a precise date?
- the % of eBelgians who are PP members is 41.54% (data from 16/02/13) We called that 'Passive' eBelgian participation;
-47,51% of PP members voted for a PP candidate;
- the 'Active' eBelgian participation (number of members of a party who voted for a PP candidate divided by the global population) is 19.96% (data from 15/02/13);

Conclusion

The eBelgian electoral system is:
-proportional (But the 'only-five-biggest parties-allowed' condition has to be taken into account because there is a pre-selection before the elections);
- fragmented, the votes are dispersed between a large number of parties, there are no concentration in the two first parties;
- very competitive, the first party leads with few more votes;
- extremely volatile, a lot of voters changed their vote in regard with the previous December elections.

The eBelgium has:
- an internal electoral participation per parties that changes a lot according to the parties. More members doesn't signify necessarily more participation;
- 41.54% of its population that is in a political party, the 'passive' electoral participation;
- almost one half of these PP members that voted for a PP candidate (47.51%);
- an 'active' electoral participation of 19.96%, the eBelgian citizens that are in a PP AND voted for a PP candidate.
- an electoral participation of Congress elections unknown, I don't know if it's possible to know the eBelgian population at a precise date.

Well, This was the first number of the eBelgian Electoral Studies and actually the first article of The Furious, the best eNewspaper ever!
In the first part we have seen some powerful indexes to qualify an electoral system. In the future this indexes will be more useful, because they will allow to compare a huge quantity of data quickly by seeing if they change or not.
I hope I'll have the time after each election to propose in this Newspaper an update of eBelgians electoral studies.
I appreciate constructive comments/critics if you have liked/disliked my little electoral analysis in order to improve it in the future! I hope the article is not too long and that my written English is understandable :)

Dardrew



Don't hesitate to share and vote if you like the article, and who knows, maybe even subscribe to the newspaper! :D

 

Commentaires

The Valeyard
The Valeyard 1,915 jour, 16:17

voted

tommot
tommot 1,915 jour, 16:50

Very nice analysis.
Just 1 cosmetic thing: I wouldn't use that kind of green with another dark color, it makes it harder to read the text in it. A softer(pastel-like) color makes it more pleasing to the eye.

The content is just fine by me.

dardrew
dardrew 1,916 jour, 02:48

You're right, for the next article I'll take more time to make a good presentation!

boer jan
boer jan 1,916 jour, 07:09

take care they will impose you to use pink

SwaqqCoryn
SwaqqCoryn 1,915 jour, 17:54

Voted.... That's just really well done, Im impressed.

mEd de Leeuw
mEd de Leeuw 1,915 jour, 18:43

Voted and subscribed ofc, nice article dude !

Cotarius
Cotarius 1,915 jour, 21:45

V+S

BrunoCND
BrunoCND 1,916 jour, 00:17

Waiting for the next article. I like it!!

Aries Sun
Aries Sun 1,916 jour, 02:39

v10

O.d.i.h.n.i.t.o.r.u.l
O.d.i.h.n.i.t.o.r.u.l 1,916 jour, 02:45

As you see in this analysis being a party with many members does not mean is the most active one... That should make everyone think twice when they gonna vote for Congress or CP. Res Belgica is still the most active and dedicated party in this country.
Anyway, nice one dardrew.

BrunoCND
BrunoCND 1,916 jour, 03:20

so is Union-Unie and ATO

SwaqqCoryn
SwaqqCoryn 1,916 jour, 05:45

I don't agree ^.^ Congress vote will tell the real story. As the PP was mostly one sided, except on RB.

O.d.i.h.n.i.t.o.r.u.l
O.d.i.h.n.i.t.o.r.u.l 1,916 jour, 07:02

Yes , I understand you. I feel you and I do feel sorry for you. Still, a fact it`s a fact. The numbers do not lie. Babyboom it`s a good party, it`s full with good people. Also it is a party where that old saying gets true : no matter how many you are, but how strong and united you are.

A Vegan
A Vegan 1,917 jour, 14:09

During last months PP elections HOPE had more votes than party members lol. A big turn-up during pp elections has much more to do with members from other parties that help out or block someone than it has to do with how strong a party is. I know it is a public secret when other parties help a certain pp to win but come on lets not run in circles and do as if it has any other reasons..

A Vegan
A Vegan 1,917 jour, 14:18

Res Belgica has lost a lot of members since the last PP elections but had almost 1/3 more votes. And why does Res Belgica have so many members? Because half of the members haven't been active in I don't know how long. Res Belgica is the only party that hasn't renewed itself. All other top 5 parties have a very new members base and constantly re-invent themselves. I actually think that Res Belgica has the least active members base of the top 5 parties. It is only still so big because at one time it was a great party with charismatic members. So indeed member numbers do not say everything..

NicknameFromRonny
NicknameFromRonny 1,916 jour, 03:00

N1, Dardrew.

Tensa Zangetsu san
Tensa Zangetsu san 1,916 jour, 03:24

Great... very good

boer jan
boer jan 1,916 jour, 07:12

this is really interesting,I am looking already what changes next elections will bring.

Genesis X 1,916 jour, 18:14

Commentaire supprimé

Genesis X
Genesis X 1,916 jour, 18:14

voted

Kaad
Kaad 1,917 jour, 08:35

Best enewspaper +1

A Vegan
A Vegan 1,917 jour, 14:10

Great article! Looking forward to the next!!
Voted and subs

 
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