Population Analysis
Day 2,325, 13:06
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Published in Canada 
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by
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by Emperor Rick
Today I want to share with you a population analysis of the two alliances currently at war with each other.
Asteria: 6 member nations - Total Population 30,550
LETO: 10 members + Hungary - Total Population 21,797
Hungary is not formally in the alliance, but is counted as pro-Asteria
Sirius: 7 member nations - Total population 36,534
Aurora: 7 members - Total population 16,184
Active Players as of Day 2,325
The two sides are almost evenly split between Sirius Affiliates & Asteria Affiliates.
The difference between the two sides is only 371 active players in favor of Sirius
This is not a measure of military strength, because we all know quality trumps quantity, but as of recent, the edge has been in Asteria's favor.
On Day 625, I wrote an article about the ingame population potential the United States had.
- http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/the-potential-of-the-usa-and-erepublik-population-capacity-885517/1/20
PEACE (major players being Hungary, Indonesia, and others) was at war with
ATLANTIS/FORTIS (Romania, Canada, US, and others)
The war was going badly, there were a few articles going around trying to incite a new baby boom for the US. That's when I began to wonder how many players could potentially be brought to play this game.
That's when i came up with .02% of a countries population.
- We lived in a much smaller world at the time, and no other e-nation had its ingame population above .02% of their IRL population.
I figured this would be a great way to measure the potential active players for this game. At the time .02% of a nation's irl population was pretty damn close to the ingame population of Hungary & Romania, and they had a huge game presence compared to the rest of the world because eRepublik received alot of press from their IRL media, and I assumed their baby boom was pretty much over compared to the rest of the world.
( IRL population ) X .0002 = ( Potential )
Unfortunately I didn't document the top 10 countries ingame populations or how far away they were to their population goal. At the time the closest nation to achieving that maximum potential was Hungary.
I went back with this equation though to look at how today's world fits with this equation.
Serbia was insignificant on Day 625, but now has completely broken my equation.
I can only speculate how, I know from when Indonesia first occupied Australia they received a huge baby boom from the attention it got from their IRL media. Maybe from all the ingame Balkin Wars or from when Kosovo was added as a region of Serbia, it just really got their attention.
Poll to add Kosovo: http://blog.erepublik.com/final-results-on-the-kosovo-poll/
Others to surpass my capacity assumption are: Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Chile. I've only done this equation with the top 10 nations. You can do the rest for yourself.
This still shows though that there is a huge market for eRepublik to expand on. If they make the game better (and not an obvious ploy for you to buy gold for a limited time offer that lasts almost 24/7 365 days a year)
then there is still room for more baby booms.
What does this all mean in terms of the war between Sirius & Asteria?
From just looking at the top 10 nations,
Every Asteria member has reached or close to reaching 100% (Argentina at 92
😵, meanwhile
The United States - 9%, Brazil - 17%, Turkey - 31%, Spain - 57%, have room to improve.
This is not a good sign for Asteria's long-term war resources.
Serbia's population accounts for 22% of it's alliance population,
- 36% if you're counting Asteria's core members.
This limits the flexibility of war planning since Serbia accounts for over a quarter of the alliance, while Sirius members are capable of multitasking battles among several fronts. And as time goes on they have the ability to grow to overwhelm Asteria if the status quo continues.
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Comments
Good analysis sir!
Very good article. Food for thought.
Interesting stuff. I'd say the differing "percent to goal" levels are quite meaningful and are fairly consistent with the character and collective experience of the different RL nations.
V
😮
excellent lesson in numbers history, and interesting projection going forward.
It means Serbs have a really good bot network.
i lol'd, this is probably true
Being "Number 1" paints a big, tempting target and sets the goal for everyone else to knock the crowing braggart off his pedestal. Our enemy will receive his comeuppance in due time, and the current set of alliances won't last forever.
"crowing braggart" and "comeuppance"?
I hope they're paying you by the word, Chuck Dickens.
I would have used simpler words had I known I was writing for an American audience.
You can't attack the message so you attack the presentation. Classic.
Us Mericuns doant take kindly to fancy book lurnin'.
Interesting.
Good job sir.
My take is that your original assessment (day 625) was of a relatively new game that (for the most part) was composed of people actively searching for such a game. I have no supporting documentation but merely speculate that mostly college kids were around then, given the relative predilection of that type of group to try something new, especially on the internet, This would explain the 0.02% of the actual population supposing that the given populations of those countries would have a similar distribution of college age citizens. Again, this is only supposition.
Today's game is mature in actual operation and also participation. This would explain the significant differences in ratio of RL to game citizenship. I'm not sure that any real assessment of how likely a baby boom's occurrence is possible. The demographics of such an observation would span too many variables.
In short, anything is possible but too many cultural and age groups are involved in what makes up eReps player base. It would be extremely hard to target any significant number of potential players to substantially increase an ePopulation. That's not to say that a media spotlight cannot change things. It's just hard to predict or especially create such an event. If it were then eReps owners would be more proactive in marketing their product worldwide.
"If they make the game better (and not an obvious ploy for you to buy gold for a limited time offer..."
You do make a valuable point here. Instead of merely adding gimmicks and 'special offers' the trick is to make the game more interesting. I believe there is an entire market of people looking to find a challenge. eRep does not offer a challenge to gamers, only mediocrity.
The emperors new stats !
1)Nip the little nations,
+2)Realign for "survival" . . .
+3)An upcoming world war. = Plato prophet.
~hyuu~