Losing: Not Always A Loss
Gnilraps
T'aint No Sin (Mandatory listening)
Day 2828 of the New World
August 18, 2015
As usual, I invite those who've been living under a rock to catch up on the events of the past week.
Read Derphoof's review which is precise about the facts while slanted in interpretation.
Read BeachBunny's Apology where she takes personal responsibility for the lack of communication and poor timing of the Paraguayan AirStrke, and where she makes promises for a better tomorrow.
Read SColbert's Press Briefing where... well just read it.
And Read the lengthy diatribes in Private Congress wherein certain Congresspeople are working to hold the Executive fully responsible for the breadth of the scope of this failure while other Congresspeople are trying to move on. Oh wait. You can't read Private Congress boards? Well SHAME ON YOUR CONGRESSMEN for not publishing their views about what has gone on. If they won't communicate to you the voter... replace them next month.
In case you didn't bother reading all of that stuff, here's the tl;dr:
eUS chose to AirStrke Paraguay to create a border with Chile so that we could join the gang-bang that is taking place against them. Chile is unpopular with our allies and just about the closest thing we have to an actual enemy.
The AirStrike plan was the quickest route. A slower land-based plan was proposed by Oblige but rejected by the Executive because it was seen as too slow.
A war-hungry President dove hastily into war, allowed our allies to dictate the timing, and eUS was defeated. We were not defeated by Paraguay though, we were defeated by mostly Chileans putting up big numbers in Divisions 1, 2, and 3.
OK. Now that you are caught up, I want to offer my two cents on things.
It is my view that our AirStrike failure was actually an unintended success.
It is now obvious that eUSA represents a legitimate threat on the battlefield. How can I say this in the aftermath of a spanking? Answer: Look at BiH.
Just after our failed AirStrike, Bosnia and Herzegovina followed suit. And what happened? BiH was successful in their AirStrike!
Now anyone with a brain knows that BiH is no match for eUSA on the Battlefield. The fact is, when eUSA attacked, Chile was afraid. They came out against our AirStrike with FULL FORCE (in the lower 3 divisions) because eUSA would have been a gamechanger against Chile.
In fact, other threats were made against eUSA by one of Chile's best Balkan buddies... eUSA would have likely received an incoming AirStrike from Bulgaria had our invasion moved on to direct conflict with Chile. That would have been awesome!
So one minor "success" in all of this is that we were shown the respect of the full weight of the Chilean military. I like this.
But more significantly, our AirStrike achieved a very valuable result.
We bled a good bit of Chile's resources.
Everyone knows that Chile came out gangbusters in the Regiment Rumble competition and their most active tanks (across all divisions, but ESPECIALLY in the lower divisions) won a massive pile of Gold. Guess what they had to spend against eUSA? Trust me, it wasn't Paraguayan Gold resisting our AirStrike.
rivers of chilean gold being drained...
Oh. And if we are to bleed their warchest of its resources, I'd MUCH rather do it on foreign soil than on our own native ground.
So despite the loss in one single campaign, I believe gains were achieved. And I invite BeachBunny to consider the strategic value of this loss, courageously lead us back in against Chile, and this time dictate the terms of our attack.
It could be that we might even lose another direct engagement with Chile. I would be OK with that too. Because victory over Chile doesn't necessarily have to mean eUSA is directly victorious. It takes all kinds of military maneuvers to win a war.
Am I attempting to mitigate a battlefield loss? No. I truly believe that a Paraguayan AirStrike was winnable. I believe the Administration lacked foresight, planning, coordination, experience, balls, and support. It was an inexcusable loss.
It's just that as the dust settles, I like what I see.
You may now return to your regularly scheduled clicking
Comments
I stand ready to fight.
Why the hell didn't we Airstrike Chile then?
I wondered that myself.
Ultimately, Paraguay gave us some additional options to help allies rearrange some regions. In the end, Paraguay might have been the best choice or it may not have been. I wasn't privy to whatever deliberations took place. They did NOT take place in PDB.
aaahhhhh ok. 🙂
Yeah, airstrike Chile right now to achieve more ''valuable result''!!!
I still remember the time when Argentina tried to land in Mexico to invade USA. At that time we used to be allies, now I see how easily eUS changes sides.
Voted
http://imgur.com/hjwPsUC
Sorry... one image is more than many, many words.
Thanks. I'll stick it in my article.
Well thought out Gnil. I am still going to sit on the sidelines until the tax rate comes down, but solid analysis.
Bosnia Stronk !
Choose right side of the force ...
Yeah, I agree.
While this is an admirable piece of cheer-leading, I would present a slightly different interpretation...
What the failed AS on Paraguay painfully exposed is, that USA's policy of selling it's former allies for "security", has led it to a position of small to middle country used for tactical AS (same was done by Greece a few weeks back) to drain the opponents of it's supposed allies, who offer little support when the actual fighting starts.
(Lest not forget USA was going to stay months in Macedonia)
USA has a bunch of generally useless MPPs which protect it from the allies of it's supposed current allies, but do little else in terms of support for any real war or in terms of protection from the former allies it so easily sold.
Money can only go so far to make others like you or to help you win wars, it is motivation and loyalty that makes the difference in the end and right now USA cannot inspire either into anyone outside it's borders.
So no, this was not a sign that USA matter on the international scene but much to the contrary, USA's role has been relegated to second rate support and meat shield status.
As for the military side of things, the AS was no the primary battle during the day, it just turned out it is feasible to win it as well and not have to rely on the other contingency plans. Essentially when you're fighting on multiple fronts you eliminate the easiest first.
We are aware of Bulgaria's support for Paraguay during this maneuver.
I believe that everyone in the eUSA political scene would do well to listen very carefully to what you say. I agree with you, though there is a reason why I do not think that your views negate those I have published above.
And here it is: What you say has actually been the case for quite some time. eUSA's damage statistics are propped up by ego-tanks and ribbon hunters. As an organized force we cannot be taken seriously.
However we WERE taken seriously during this airstrike. Seriously enough to elicit a well-organized and funded response as well as retaliatory threats. Responses which BiH has not seen.
So while I think you are more right than people think you are, I also think that someone out there recognizes the latent power of War Inc., Easy Company, VMA, and the USAF. If properly organized, we could have taken Paraguay.
'Money can only go so far to make others like you or to help you win wars, it is motivation and loyalty that makes the difference in the end and right now USA cannot inspire either into anyone outside it's borders.'
Hell, the 'eUSA Forum meta government' can't even motivate its own citizens, unless they bribe the 'ego-tanks and ribbon hunters' to be 'loyal' through huge COs. A 105,000 CC bribe to our NMU and close to 2 million CC in COs and we still get our asses kicked in the Divisions we have been told over and over again for months make no difference.
FS, you are correct. We have a crisis right now. I'm not entirely in agreement with your interpretation of it, but we are in crisis.
NEEDS MORE GREELING!!!
glad your back!
Interesting read.
Defensive dicktatorship
Defensive MPPs
Murrica is all about defense and thinks that hoarding CC will prevent a future wipe
"But more significantly, our AirStrike achieved a very valuable result.
We bled a good bit of Chile's resources."
Wait... what?
After the last event, Chile won gold equivalent in value to several times our total reserves. And we do have a fuckton of reserves. That is how much they earned.
And then you get into a war of attrition with a country who has several times our reserves to prevent them from winning against allies that didn't even really ask for our help?
You call this a success?
Tip: If you don't have deeper pockets than your enemy, a war of attrition is the strategy you want to AVOID. Unless you can somehow have an advantage which makes your opponent spend way more than 1$ per dollar you spend.
Not to mention that this probably antagonized Chile even more against us, earning us an enemy who has several times our reserves.
This isn't a success. This isn't stupid either. It is an utter catastrophe in terms of grand strategy.
I didn't expect such fallacious argumentation from you Gnilraps. I am severely disappointed. You shouldn't distort the truth just because you support BB.
A couple of things.
Chile didn't win the Gold, Chileans (mostly) won the Gold. That is not a meaningless distinction. And I do believe they will have outspent us in this maneuver.
I can't disagree with you about the catastrophic nature of the loss. Yet I stand by my argument that we 1: consumed more of their resources than we spent, and 2: learned that we are not as meaningless in the eyes of our enemies as I previously suspected.
Also don't overestimate my support for BB. If this is the best she is capable of, I want her run out of office.
Your argument that we consumed more of their resources than we spent? You mean your unbacked claim. Given that it was us who paid the sunk cost for the AS, how could that even be true?
If you have any evidence to prove that they spent more than we spent, please share. Otherwise, you are just offering your claims as if they were facts.
The fact that we are not meaningless in the eyes of our enemies owes to the successful administrations we had before this recent debacle. So we didn't learn anything new, or add on top of our existing good reputation. If anything we hurt our reputation.
Yes, given the cost of the AS, I agree with you that we probably got outspent overall.
But given the fact that we were out-tanked badly in the lower division, the actual resources that were WON in the Regiment Rumble by Chilean fighters... THOSE are the resources that we bled. The Chilean GOVERNMENT won nothing.
So yes. This operation cost Chile nothing. But my instinct tells me (and this is admittedly unsubstantiated) that our enemies burned more energy bars than we did. And EB=Gold.
It's not much, but it's something.
You either misread my post, or your first sentence is wrong. I claim that it is much more likely that we spent more than our opponents given that it is us who bore the fixed cost of launching the AS. That means engaging in this war of attrition would have been a bad idea even if we had as much money as they have. Given that we only have a fraction of what they have, it is even more suboptimal. It was a disastrously wrong decision.
You are claiming we bled a lot of their resources, but that is again an unsubstantiated claim. If anything, since they were better organized than us (not surprising given zero media coverage or prep), it is again much more likely that they burned food fights whereas we burned EBs or CO money.
And do not forget that Chile did not have us in their immediate cross-hairs before this operation. So why is draining resources of a potential - not immediate - enemy at a higher cost to us compared to the amount of damage we inflict is "a win"? Nevermind that they are way richer than us.
Gnilraps, you are really grasping for straws here. Google "war of attrition deep pockets" to learn what game theorists have to say about how stupid this is.
I guess what is going on here is that you oppose my effort to find SOME small good thing from this. I don't blame you. It was unfathomable to me that we should have permitted ourselves to lose. Based on the amount of resources we had committed, and then to find out how little of that we actually spent... it would have been far better for us to have not done it at all than to do what we did.
And I actually think you are not reading what I am saying. I admit that based on the cost of the AS, our GOVERNMENT spent more than the Chile GOVERNMENT. But the Chile government didn't win a damned thing in the MU contest. All that Gold was won by Citizens. Citizens who spent it against us in the airstrike.
I also admitted that I can't substantiate my claim that they outspent us. I am basing it solely on the fact that they out DAMAGED us across the three Divisions where most of their Citizen Gold was won.
Lastly, I don't need to google war of attrition. I understand your point on that. And if it were JUST eUSA V. Chile we'd have a problem.
But the fact remains that Chile is currently on the losing end of these military actions. The advantage is held by those opposing Chile. Everyone knows this which is why Bulgaria was so concerned about our involvement to begin with. There's only one way to get that Chilean Gold out of their hands. They are going to have to fight with it.
I will not keep arguing with you because on principle I agree with most of your points. I just chose to find two little roses growing in the aftermath of that failure. I don't think anyone is mistaking my article as a justification for what happened.
If we agree on the fact that your article can be summarized as "you should have seen the other guy!" then I have nothing else to add either.
Kemal, Some days you just need to publish something.
The 'eUSA Forum meta government' lost to 3 divisions that for months now Kemal and others of his ilk have been telling America were meaningless. The loss to Chile in those battles proves the BCs strategy of building a strong D1 and D2 PMU is the right one.
One thing I will point out is that Kemal is an ex iNCi member, a traitorous party who demanded a bribe to stop letting in enemies of America; who also PTOed their way into the T5 -therefore you must take what he says with a shaker of salt.
Dear Murricans,
here are your congressmen that want you to think that by making your eCountry the most overtaxed in the history of eRepublik you will automatically become invincible on the battlefiel😛
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Yui-MHCP001
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Show them your appreciation with a personal message for a job well done!
And make sure to vote them once again into office on the 25th this month, because maybe you will need a tax increase next month too!!!!!
o/
that is right, the only part of eWorld where prostate is getting bigger than our collective ego.
Well said. o7
this was actually quality journalism instead of your usual BS. Good take on the whole situation.
I asked in the Private Congress forum why the thread about the failed AS wasn't in Congress and got some crazy crap about telling the public what was spent on the operation, which I don't get at all.
As I also said there: "Give everyone a chance to see it's government at work. Chuckles will surely be had by all."
9/10.
P.S. I still think get a measure of revenge on and thwarting a future attack from Thailand is a better idea.
One Night In Bangkok.
makes a hard man humble...
I just want to say that eUSA AS-ed Paraguay, not Chile. But obvioulsy PY has far more efficient and reliable allies. I think that this is the real problem, not the coordination, COs, etc. Even more at the start this AS wasn't an "all in" prio.
Good luck once again eUSA. I hope you will find the right way.
Failure was guaranteed, one way or another!!
we wanted to land on eChillean border, and that is not smart at all. first because are no match for eChille; secondly because they are already in war with two great powers (Arg and Bra etc) and we do not have to push this legacy further (fighting one enemy in its worst days is not a fight); and thirdly eUS has not been in wars longer that max a week since i remeber (only back in wwII when we were kept in deletion by our current allies).
Finally, there is many great fighters in eUS but eUS itself is sooo sluggish in putting a good fight, my advice do not go after eChile.
Good article, I liked it.
Chile seems to be losing all its battles now. Coincidence?
Certainly written with a rose tinted keyboard.
Interesting take, as usual though.
Good arguments both sides, personally, though, I am very grateful to your attack and support in our fights. You drained Chilean damage that maybe was the turning point of the war. We were in the brink of giving up and accepting Chilean peace terms. Besides attacking Paraguay, American fighters were crucial to the release of Brazillian Northeast last night which was a close battle and decided in the last round. Colin Lantrip and other fighters helped us so much that we managed to win in division 2 against Chile. Their main hero hit more than 1 billion damage in div 2, just to show how important was the battle to Chile. Making it short, thanks for your help.
Anyway you look at this disaster the 'eUSA Forum meta government' couldn't motivate it citizens or simply failed to support the elected Dictator, the fact that most American Citizen Soldiers didn't show up and that probably 50% of all the other PMUs didn't either; coupled with the fact that the 'eUSA Forum meta government's' NMU is 3rd rate at best doomed this operation.
Buying loyalty never works, as this failure has proven once again....