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WMR - Good news: gold down 15%. Bad news: you still can't afford it

Day 1,726, 05:58 by Wilhem Klink


Another tumultuous week in the eRep economy. Wages tumbled past US$100, Q1-Q3 for food and weapons saw massive price pullbacks, food raw materials double (again), gold continues its slide, and amid the price carnage, some prices actually rise.

Food raw materials hold prices through mid-week and then double in one day and hold that at week's end. Weapon raw materials hold prices steady at .21 for the week. The Raw Material Index pushes up 9 points for the week to 71.11.

Weapons on the low-end and mid-range (Q1-Q5) see massive price erosion as prices average a 23% decline (on top of last week's 17% decline) pushing Q1 prices below $2. With weapon raw materials holding at $.21, the 10 raw materials it takes to produce a Q1 mean its $2.10 just in raw material cost, meaning every Q1 sold loses the seller money. Q6 & Q7 moderate their price declines, but they still lose 8%. The Weapon Index pushes to yet another all-time low of 39.42, down 2.4 for the week.

Food prices, trying to keep pace, experience their own weakness in Q1-Q4. Prices there retreat 20% on average (on top of last week's 22% drop) as Q1 pushes past .20 into the teens. Unlike weapons, low-end food sells for more than its raw material component, but profits are shrinking fast. High-end food sees a resurgence as Q5-Q7 see prices strengthen 9% for Q5, 16% for Q6, 33% for Q7. However, its not enough as the Food Index drops 4 points to 41.72.

Wages pause in their relentless drop and hold at $100 for a few days. The crack staff at The 1600 Index checked the wage offers midweek and there were 7 pages (at least) of $100 offers. By week's end that mattered little as wages pushed rudely past the $100 mark and continued their decline. Wages drop 16% for the week pushing the Wage Index down 3.5 to 30.51. Hard to believe that 16 days ago wages were $305.

Gold is riding a 16-day losing streak during which its price has declined nearly 39%. The Gold Index sits at its all-time low of 65.96. Previous gold downturns had not lasted past 14 days, so this has some legs.

The Big Graph:


A closer look at the last 2 weeks:


The 1600 AU Index
Based off of the amount of gold a player could earn in a year by working at market wage, selling 20 weapons, 200 food (both Q6) and 1750 raw materials (split 50/50 food/weapons) the 1600 AU Index strengthens as Q6 food's and food raw material price rises coupled with the sagging gold price offset the weakness in Q6 weapon price. The 1600 AU Index rises to 371, a level not seen since Day 1612 (aka 19 April).

The graph:




Self-supply profits

With food raw material prices rising and prices generally dropping, what can a player expect when selling the fruits of their own labor? The following shows the profits (after VAT) of selling items produced at a player's own factory:


The collapsing weapon prices push Q1-Q3 weapon producers into the "Don't Bother" category. Rather than use your 200 WRM to produce 20 Q1 weapons, sell the WRM for $42 (no VAT on raws) buy 20 Q1s on the market for $37.60 and you are $4.40 richer.
That hold for Q2 & Q3 as well.
Food producers are getting squeezed: just two weeks ago Q1s were making $50, now its down to $12. Rising raw materials and dropping market prices will do that.

Employers still aren't feeling the love, are they? Lets check per-employee profits from weapon factories:


A whole lotta no love. While WRM prices have been stead and wages have dropped, the market price pull back keeps everyone in the red. Q6 got awfully close on Day 1721.

Food, then:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB_DOA2AL7Q
Listen to Led Zeppelin tell us what food employers are feeling: a whole lotta love. Despite the jump in raw prices, the market price jump have left Q6 & Q7 feeling the love. Q5 isn't doing too poorly either.

Wages
The five-day moving average for wages shows the steep decline

In past editions of the 1600 index, we've done a round-up od select nations wage & net wage. So how does the wage issue look world-wide?

First a chart from last month (July 11)


And one month latter:

A couple of notes: world-wide wages are poor; It no longer pays (in most cases) to cross borders to get a job. Previously a worker from the eUK could cross over to ePoland and take home 103cc more per day. The trip to ePoland and back to the eUK could be covered in the first days wage and the worker would be bringing in 100+cc each day after that.

Cut to today. That eUk worker still can make more in ePoland, but the 9cc difference isn't enough to pay for the round-trip until over a week on the job.
The countries wages are bunched fairly close together with the exception of eMexico which is still struggling with staying on the map. Workers in eTurkey & eGermany may be better off seeking employment elsewhere.

Also interesting to see the gap narrow between high bonus countries and lower-bonus countries. In July the top paying nations were all 80%-100% bonus nations. Today, while ePoland, eUSA, & eChina still enjoy 100% bonuses, eIndonesia & eAustralia are living with 40% (at best) bonuses. The gap between 100/100% bonus eUSA & 60/40% bonus eCanada was $85, now it is $5.

Multiples
We here at The 1600 Index have long noted that prices for a particular quality level is generally its multiple over Q1. For example a Q2 item is often 2X the Q1 price, a Q3 3X the price of a Q1, etc. With the introduction of the rocket factory, things went all pear-shaped (for weapons anyway) and then started to settle out. The Q7 came along and things went haywire. Are they settling in yet?

Weapons:

Not so much. Q2 & Q3 have tracked the decline in Q1 pricing and remain close to 2X & 3X. Q4 is drifting close to 5x, Q5 has clearly pushed to 6X, and Q6 recent prices moderation has left it over eight times the price of the depressed Q1. The new Q7 dropped to 8X Q1's price before the bottom fell out of Q1's market.

Food:

With no rocket factory introduction to scramble the chart, the levels hold quite well until the recent decline in Q1's market price. Q2-Q4 have matched Q1's decline, while Q5 & Q6 have actually increased their market price leading to a huge jump in their multiple. Q7 is running roughly twice what a Q5 would go for, which seem right as it gives twice the health od a Q5.

Quick 5-days for raw materials
WRM:

Looks like WRM has found its happy place as prices settle in even with the 5-day
Food raw material

Two periods of stable prices with some strong upwards movement over the last two weeks.



Note: prices are reflective of a percentage of Day 1600's price (Hence the "1600 Index"). In other words if an index is quoted at 88, that days price is 88% of the price on Day 1600. Except the 1600 AU Index which represents an amount of gold one can buy given market conditions as noted in that section.

Methodology on prices: prices are taken at 3:00 eRep time. The price is the average price of buying 1,000 Raw materials, 500 Food, 100 weapons (at each quality level), and 8 gold, plus the market wage less any fraction of cc (so 240, rather than 240.1). All qualities are standardized to Q1 (per hit or per health).

Sic transit gloria mundi



 

Comments

Mr Andrews
Mr Andrews Day 1,726, 06:39

v and shout

Cake Chiffon Day 1,726, 07:01

Comment deleted

Alphabethis
Alphabethis Day 1,726, 07:13

voted and shout, real data and real analysis

New Faustian Man
New Faustian Man Day 1,726, 07:35

V

Timothe Loya
Timothe Loya Day 1,726, 13:03

I may be weird, but even though none of this heavily involves my role in eRepublik, as I see it, I still enjoy reading and learning via these articles.

moemoe7777
moemoe7777 Day 1,726, 15:00

now is the time to buy gold its not going to be below 1000 dollars

Grainne Ni Mhaille
Grainne Ni Mhaille Day 1,726, 15:36

I'm a new sub. Good article.
v

Elvimonte
Elvimonte Day 1,726, 16:13

Nice work.

V&S

figuar_zg
figuar_zg Day 1,727, 12:44

superb analysis! VOTE!

Noc Turna
Noc Turna Day 1,727, 20:28

I found this purely out of luck, sweet tho. Happy with actual stats that I can use myself. Anyways, I'm starting up a non-profit lotto, and if you're the only ticket buyer you get double your money back. So... buy them tickets!

http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/the-trio-lotto-first-non-profit-lottery-2100916/1/20

HisAirness
HisAirness Day 1,728, 03:08

Great article.

The Dark J0ker
The Dark J0ker Day 1,728, 03:12

nice

TOS101
TOS101 Day 1,728, 03:29

Great article. x2

glady
glady Day 1,728, 03:37

nice

v82 s250 shout

Rebelsy
Rebelsy Day 1,728, 03:40

vauuu

s + v

Zheng He
Zheng He Day 1,728, 04:25

Nice!

macroma
macroma Day 1,728, 04:54

amazing like always!

beerman616
beerman616 Day 1,728, 06:45

Awesome article, great data, subbed and voted!

ddady yankee
ddady yankee Day 1,729, 07:13

AWESOME

Mintyness
Mintyness Day 1,729, 13:20

I loved the gold crash I bought a crap ton of gold kekekeke.

 
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