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The Economist ~ Cyclical warfare & the future of EDEN
Political debates and analysis 
Dear friends,
Six months ago (or so) ONE had a bit of a George Bush Jr. moment when they declared the war against EDEN over and declared a victory for allied forces. Six months later, in the present day, we see similar declarations by EDEN. You would think people would learn!
The nature of war in this game is cyclical and liquid. Each event has a knock on event, which can lead to the rise and fall of alliances. For example, let’s look at a minor situation in the backwaters of alliance wars- the UK. Since they joined the proONE bloc the UK has been squabbling with Canada and Ireland with some victories and some defeats, but mainly an endless stalemate. Whatever people say it was enjoyable for all three countries involved. UK was wiped, Ireland was wiped, Canada got invaded a couple of times and had some marauding Vikings up there.
So what changed? Poland lost its regions in France and Germany, and the French joined the war on the UK resulting in our wipe. We couldn’t beat 3 countries, and of course alliance support dried up as the big countries came under threat. But this feeds on itself, because as small countries were wiped, more and more damage was lost to uncoordinated resistance wars, petty battles against occupiers and in some cases lost altogether as countries were wiped and people quit or were stuck abroad.
Go to “world map”, highlight “Serbia” and then click “view MPPs”. The tiny splotches of blue on the map are all that is left of ONE MPP damage. Now do the same thing for USA. The truth is that 60% of ONE and TEDEN damage comes from a few large countries, but in a battle 40% makes a lot of difference. When most of TEDEN is free, and most of ONE is occupied, you’ll always have a situation where ONE is deciding which battles to lose each day, whereas EDEN has a chance to win everywhere.
This was exactly the situation TEDEN was in six-to-eight months ago, and now look at them. I take my hat off to the commanders and more importantly citizens of EDEN. Not for winning, but for holding their shit together when they were under pressure, and not giving up and blaming their leaders and alliance for their situation. It is however quite funny when certain famous trolls announce that ONE’s defeat means they’re dead...when TEDEN went through the same situation and survived. At least give us a chance before you write us off!
Where, you might be asking, do I see the world going from here? Well we all know what happens when one alliance wins all the time- people get bored. ONE went into a period of long activity decline after their victories, and a lot of people went inactive or quit. At the same time countries got bored of winning all the time. A lot of countries in EDEN got more organised under constant pressure from invading forces. More and more directive power transferred from individual countries to their alliance HQ. And then slowly they began to push us back.
The big changes came when Terra began to directly attack ONE colonies in Western Europe, and when divisions between ONE and proONE countries like Turkey led to much damage being lost. What do I see in the future? Nothing definitive, but expect to see the same things happen to EDEN that happened to ONE: Overconfidence, loss of key allies, complacence in resistance wars, lack of support for key countries at key points. They are all faults I (as a partisan of ONE) can freely admit we had, have and are trying to overcome. But will you EDEN guys admit that they are coming too, or will you just believe the propaganda (EDEN IS BROTHERHOOD) right up until the point you make the same mistakes we did?
I suppose I shouldn’t try to give EDEN advice since my country is occupied and wiped by them, but I try to keep my paper as balanced as possible. Right now you have a few countries which are fighting on the same side (Turkey, Bulgaria are notable) who don’t like each other. We delayed in resolving that situation and lost one of our supporters. Will EDEN do the same thing? Losing Turkey means losing damage, losing Bulgaria makes a mockery of the concept of “Brotherhood”. It is a choice EDEN has to make, and I know from experience that delaying it makes things worse.
EDEN also has a big problem with Terra, and if they don’t acknowledge it soon it’ll become more than a quietly spoken issue on private forums. Why was PANAM formed (now Terra)? It was formed because people were “fed up of alliances which focused entirely on Europe and the Balkans”. Whether through choice or otherwise, Terra has been dragged into the endless grind war between the big Balkan countries again. The USA has little prospect for any serious direct wars and now is just sitting bored, fighting via MPP for countries it doesn’t really care about. The odd jaunt into Spain whilst the times are good is ok, but long term that’s going to get boring. When the UK (briefly) joined Terra, we found ourselves surrounded by allies. It was boring and nothing happened, and we weren’t even allowed our skirmishing with Ireland, so we left. USA is in the same situation now. There are going to be people saying “noooo it’ll never happen” in the comments. I hope it doesn’t for your sakes, but there is no point burying your heads in the sand. It is a possibility and something the Americans themselves should be considering.
If I am still alive in six months when ONE is winning (or perhaps a successor alliance) and has defeated EDEN and conquered the world, I will be like the guy whispering “remember, thou art mortal”. No victory in eRepublik is permanent, everything is transitory. Don’t focus on victories on the map, horde your victories to bear you through the bad times. Whether you’re winning or losing right now, take the time to build your relationships with your allies and friends. They are all you have and you should remember that- whether you’re ruler of the world or battling for survival.
Best,
Iain
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Everything is bound to change
Wise words
Quality article, and Quality Paper - anyone else noticed now much Iain's sub count has grown recently? Soon he'll actually be getting another MM, which most people are 2.5k off due to Plato eating subs
just like economic cyle, its battle cycle which has to go up and down after every 6 month
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_too_shall_pass
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memento_mori
Couple of cultural references I made in the article... sometimes I don't explain what I'm going on about, so some background info for you.
As good as always, i love you<3
Great article o7
one of the best article i've ever read in eRep... nicely done, Iain
Iain stole my cookies.
Caught in the act and confronted by the penalty it would bring if I pressed charges, he has agreed to be my slave when we all move to Uruguay or North Korea and take over the world from there.
Meanwhile, in Balkans... [insert: same]
o/
site from the top of mountain is better and more clear
At least EDEN has a future. And it's a strong alliance that has survived some devastating blows and testing times that would have(and did) make other alliances crumble to bits. So people on the ONE/Phoenix/PEACE side shouldn't bother trying to give tips on the future of an alliance, as they themselves have failed these tests many times.
Come now, you might have kept the same name but the EDEN that exists now isn't the EDEN that battled PEACE GC. If you must spout that propaganda please do, but don't try and convince me you believe it yourself.
The game is cyclical, yes.
But this outcome was necessary to teach ONE core members humility. They were too arrogant even by eRep standards. It is priceless to see countries with citizens so full of themselves losing the war after they alienated an ally (eTR) for wholly out-of-game reasons.
~hyuu~
nothing but a true leadership of our top strategist and tanks that listen to them! u can do it also but u must consolidate and regroup! once u do that then it will be spicy again!!! cheers mate
>propaganda
>guy writes article about cycles only when his own alliance is being wiped
That's one newspaper worth keeping a subscription of. Thanks for the quality content.
Obviously you didn't read my articles six months ago Irishbhoy. Remember where I talk about arrogance? Perfect example. Didn't you suicide your country out of ego once?
The game isn't cyclical, some months ago ONE was winning because its countries were playing better. Now TERRA/EDEN is winning by the same reason
Trying to sow some seeds of doubt between EDEN and America etc. Most of your articles are subtle ONE propaganda Keers, denying that just makes you look silly.
As for suicide of countries, lol look at the map, you brought your own country down a p shitty path.
Great article! Voted
Iain write more stuff about revolution, I hate when you boring crap like this.
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/america-uuml-ber-alles-my-beautiful-america-1950793/1/20
I knew people would talk about "sowing the seeds of discontent". It's not sowing anything, I'm just writing about what's there. But go ahead, ignore the political reality of the situation. It's no skin of my back.
@Breen, I'm not writing the same stuff every day. If you don't like it, feel free to unsub. I'm too old to care about what other people think.
You said you'd write more stuff about Revolution though, get to it der.
"Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue."
What comes around, goes around. And again.
v
Ian writes really great articles, thank you Mr Keers!
The "political reality" of the "situation" right now is, the "situation" is quite good for our side. I'm not going to not enjoy a victory just because things are likely to change and we could be losing in a few months time. If anything that's all the more reason to enjoy our time in the sun.
v+s 7
detailed analyses and commetts..
game become boring when challange finishes or even decreases...
always winning is more boing then loosing...
continue with more articles...
Will the 'TEDEN' alliance collapse? Perhaps - all is possible in an infinite future. Is the war over? NO! We have just won the battle of Western Europe, after the N.American clearance. Eastern Europe is NOT yet sufficiently liberated.
IF eUK had remained in Terra you would have had MANY wars - with eSweden and ePoland in eFrance. If eCanada offered you a region of Sweden would not eUK change sides again? Shame on you eUK forever.
Best newspaper there is! (After mine : D)
very interesting article, reminded me why I subbed so long ago...
but ibh is right - you add (more or less) subtle ONE propaganda... p funny, just when you say you are balanced you start with the biased bit... but again, lots of good insights and way less biased then most of your articles lately...
Of course not Sara Droz. The UK has been a bit schizo in its foreign policy over time I'll admit. When Phoenix collapsed we were faced with the same dilemma YOU faced when ATLANTIS was falling apart. Side with our allies in Germany or side with our allies in East Europe. We chose to ally with FR+DE but in the long term it was a bad decision (one I opposed from the start). France and Germany weren't big enough to counterweight the negatives- namely that EDEN hated us and the Irish were "allied" to us. So we left. It's a much better situation for the UK now. Even with no regions we have prospects for fun. The goal isn't to make a boring peace, it's to make exciting times. I'm not complaining about the UK being wiped. When ONE was on top it was Ireland that was wiped, and it will be again one day. You take the good and the bad when you pick a side.
And idk how you can talk about being a traitor when you're over there attacking us, your mother country.
Ciao
There are some tuths in this article. Being on the defence and being on the dominant side have totally different impacts on the way countries and alliances play and behave.
About Eastern Europe/Balkans it's just where most powerful countries are located so the wars there are usually huge and it won't be an exageration to say that what heppens in the Balkans especially and the balance of powers there have pretty much an effect over the entire e-world.
What I always found very interesting with Terra is that they were created because they were bored with European wars, but cos they allied themselves with everyone around, they have no one to fight, except endless wiping of countries such as Peru, Bolivia, Mexico etc.
Terra have been involved in many offensive wars recently other than those you named. Spain, UK, Poland, Indo, Sweden, FYROM. Who else you want them to fight? Terra are also doing better than they have ever been since they started. They are doing better than any other alliance resource-wise, so to even suggest that there is any discontent about Terra's current position in this game, especially at this time, is quite funny.
A good read - voted
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CcC a cunning propaganda CcC
If you are so bored, we can give you Chile. Bulgarians and Turks have no problem in RL, but there are some haters from both sides and haters gonna hate. Many Bulgarians hate Serbs for backstabbing them in 1885 and in the 2nd Balkan War.
Although they were Bulgarians who attacked us first in eREP, they were wiped out of the map 4 times. It is naturally not so easy to forget it, like we never forget the Greeks who deleted us.
Bad propaganda mate, you are worse than Ostin.
Go Iain! Good work once again! (: