The Economist ~ Currencies of the World Part II

Day 1,086, 11:33 Published in Serbia United Kingdom by Spite313


Dear friends,

Armed with a cup of tea and a free afternoon, I have decided that the time has come for the second of my articles on currencies of the world. The last article, which can be found here covers currencies A-H in the alphabet, beginning with ARS and ending with HRK. This article, which will be of similar length, will begin with HUF and end with ZAR. If I have missed a currency and think that I should cover it please get in touch. I have chosen mainly Phoenix and EDEN powers, with the two exceptions of MKD which is the most active of the new countries, and ZAR which having so many high resources is actually fairly important.

I’d like to go over a few changes since the last article. I don’t know whether you remember me saying I wasn’t responsible if the admins suddenly changed the game or congress issued a lot of currency- well call me a prophet. Admins reintroduced strength, and gave out a lot of gold. Mistakes were made, and people got too many medals. When I logged in it had already been fixed, and I got 4 medals. Some people got many more- the most I heard was in the middle fifties. Most people got at least 2 maps, which is around 8g. Most countries attempted to protect their MMs by telling people to tank with the gold. About half did, the rest ended up on the MM with prices currency-side jumping quickly. Almost all currencies saw a disruption of 1-2 points. ARS made it to 0.029. RSD went from 0.018 to 0.02. In response to this, many countries panicked and printed currency (which was largely unnecessary). Poland printed 300,000 which I am sure they will be regretting in a few months. Anyway this has changed both the stability and price of currencies since my last article, and just goes to show that to be a MM trader you need both skill and luck.


HUF - Hungary

HUF is a strong, stable currency based in central Europe. Hungary was once the foremost global power, and that means they have an old and experienced player base. Unlike some of the other big currencies, HUF has some give in it. It often varies by one or two points over the course of a month. When the Hungarian Empire was at its peak around the time of the fall of PEACE, HUF was at 0.031. Some months later, Hungary voluntarily reduced their peg to around 0.025. After V2, it suffered the same drop many countries faced, and since then has bounced back to 0.022 where it is currently fairly stable. There is just under 80,000 currency at 0.022, which makes it very stable and unlikely to gain value. Smaller offers can easily be bought up. The value of the currency depends largely on whether Hungary gets another baby boom, and whether it acquires many non-original regions in the current Phoenix counter-attack. There is a 5% margin on HUF at the moment, with the usual margin being more like 3%. High amounts of gold in the market are primary cause of this.



IDR - Indonesia

Indonesia is an old country, the oldest global power still active. It’s currency is fairly strong, usually hovering around 0.023, where it has stood with a few variances for a long time. IDR currently stands at 0.025, which is a little bit stronger than usual. There is only 25000 currency at that peg, mostly in large offers, probably a result of a sudden large demand caused by all the maps, combined with a strong export economy backed by oil and titanium sales. The margin on IDR is just under 4%, which is quite good. Long term, I expect the currency will slowly fall down to around 0.023 as the gold boom dries up. This however is true of all the currencies that have seen a surge since the switch to strength.



IRR - Iran

IRR used to be a good trading currency, due to the countries large amount of exports. It provided the market with a certain fluidity which attracted speculation. Now however with the population of eIran shrinking considerably, mainly due to RL problems with connecting to the site experienced some months ago, IRR has become unstable. Most of the currency trading is owned by speculators, so rather than trading against market forces they are mostly trading against each other. The current peg is at 0.019, with about 8000 currency at that peg. However it changes almost daily. There is less than twenty thousand currency on the market altogether- and that is a surer sign of speculation than anything. Current margins are at 2.5%, however as I said most of the game seems to be to buy low and hopefully sell when the currency shifts. Not a particularly wise long term investment unless you are brave.



ITL - Italy

ITL is a historically low-value currency. Remember that value is largely irrelevant as a measure of economic strength. Even countries with very strong economies and constant pressure on their currency often have quite low valued currencies- Poland for example. At present ITL is standing at 0.017, with around 40,000 currency at that peg. I would normally say that it is unlikely to gain value with that kind of buffer, but really it depends on how much currency is bought (as opposed to gold sold) from maps. 170 people buying currency with a map would strip that right off the market. And a lot of maps were given out. The margin on ITL is 4.5%, which is relatively high and signifies the demand currency side pushing down gold value. A margin of over 6% would probably herald a valuation in this case. Long term the future of ITL depends on how successful they are at holding onto foreign regions and whether they themselves face an invasion in future. The likelihood of either situation changing is uncertain at present.



LTL - Lithuania

LTL is a Baltic currency which in v1 stood 1 peg above the usual Baltic standard of 0.02. It shared it’s peg with Finland, a perennial enemy across the sea. In modern times, it pegs at 0.02, and has a nice margin of over 4%. There is a healthy 28000 currency at the peg, with another twenty thousand just above, protecting it from most home grown speculators. With it being a small country, the odds of any major financial upset are low. With a strong 4.2% margin devaluation is unlikely. It is a good currency to trade, if a little slow. Geographically it is usually in a fairly safe position, however with Russia gone the Baltic states are trapped between a rock and a hard place, with both Scandinavia and Poland within easy striking distance. Despite being wiped entirely, fairly recently, Lithuania has come back strongly and their currency is stable. A remarkable feat: well done to their economists.



MKD - Republic of Macedonia

MKD is a new currency from a new country. It is hard to analyse any of these new currencies, because their instability is kind of in-built. With a large baby boom, Macedonia caught the world by surprise. Many expected the small Balkan country to be another BiH, but it has surged into what will become a major regional power. The currency currently trades at 0.035, which is far too strong really. Presumably the country plans to issue money to bring down the currency to a lower rate. High currency value in a new country essentially means a shortage of currency in circulation- which can lend itself to a lack of elasticity in crisis situations. A lower peg, though perhaps not as pretty, is better in most cases. There is 11,000 MKD at the peg, a single offer issued by the government. This is fairly normal in a new country with a fledgling economy and shouldn’t be anything to worry about. The spread on MKD is about 2.5%, but as I said, until the market is stable trading for profit is probably unwise. Issuing around 200k MKD is probably a good idea, if the government dribbles it onto the currency side of the market 20k at a time eventually it will lower in value on its own, as well as raising capital for the government. Lowering taxes or spending a lot of government money in the market place also increases elasticity, at least in the short term.



NLG - Netherlands

The Netherlands are a small country, both in size and population. Historically they have been an important economic power, producing a lot of traders and economists. They have a small old population, and a small national income. Netherlands is currently having regions swapped, presumably as part of a military strategy I won’t speculate on here. For this reason figures are somewhat skewed and will be in the near future. NLG currently stands at 0.016, with around 25,000 currency at that peg. This is perfectly adequate for a country of this size. The margin is currently 3.3%. If the currency drops below 0.014, I will be buying. I’m not really sure what the chances of a rebound are if the currency does drop, because too many factors are involved. But last time NLG dropped I bought and it was a good decision in the long term, so I will trust my luck.



PLN - Poland

What to say about PLN? It is undoubtedly the strongest and most reliable currency in the world. In V1 it stood at 0.025 from the moment of its independence to the dawn of Empire. Since V2 it has been at 0.02, but the gold surge has pushed it up to 0.023. How long it stays there is really down to the Polish government. Recently the government issued 300,000 currency. Any other country, I would call them mad. Poland however regularly issues huge amounts of currency (in V1 more than 3 million in a single month) with almost no negative consequences. There is currently over 120,000 currency at the peg, including a huge 45000 offer from the government. There is no margin to speak of on PLN, which suggests that devaluation is probably on the cards. It also shows strong government intervention in the market. To those people who bought PLN when it was at 0.02, well done. Everyone else, I would hold off buying more until we see how the market reacts when gold dries up.



PTE - Portugal

Portugal is very similar to the Netherlands in terms of size. It has a weak currency, and has been suffering occupation under Spain which hasn’t helped. PTE trades at 0.013, with around 18000 at the peg, which again is fine considering the active population is under two hundred. The margin on PTE is about 4%, which would (at 0.013), normally suggest that a valuation could be coming. However with the changing military situation, this might just be because of a new demand on PTE from regained regions and could plateaux really. In terms of the long term trading value of the currency, I expect that it will pick up a point or two of value over the next month, especially if a Phoenix presence in the region (in terms of Brazil and France) prevents further disruption in Portugal itself.



RON - Romania

Romania, along with Indonesia, is one of the oldest powers in the game and it shows. Although I am a member of Phoenix, it is allowed to admire countries on the other side. Financially I have always admired Romania, and militarily as well. They are well organised, efficient, and above all compact. Despite a major shrinkage post-Empire, Romania has succeeded in keeping a consistent level of population and income. Recently I was trawling back through financial data from the last year, and was largely unsurprised that Romania’s income, both in terms of raw numbers and % of world income, has barely changed since January. Romania trades at a peg of 0.02, and there is over 140,000 at that rate, mostly in small offers. This shows a healthy amount of economic activity. The margin on RON is 3.3%, which is pretty good. I think RON will be more or less stable at 0.02- it was at 0.019 with Croatia and Serbia for a long time, but like I said earlier, 3% is a decent margin and usually implies stability.



RSD - Serbia

Serbia was for a long time the world’s most populous country, and still has the largest economy. It has recently raised taxes to 17%, which will take some currency out of circulation, and probably temporarily increase demand on RSD. The government could use this method to raise the value of RSD, and I know a few people have invested heavily in the currency based on this theory. RSD was until recently idling at between 0.017 and 0.018. With the gold boom it leapt to 0.02, with a little push from speculators riding the high. Since then it has dropped again to 0.019, and with a margin of just 2% looks unlikely to gain value. It is a reasonably stable currency usually, with a few quirks, much like HUF. There is over 200,000 RSD in mostly small offers on the market at peg- making it the most traded currency. I noticed the US government had probably the largest non-local offer of 10k RSD from the congressional budget office. Always a shrewd bunch for spotting a good thing, I think they might have made a mistake this time.



RUB - Russia

Russia is the most resource-rich country in the new world, with multiple quantities of every high resource. Recently it has been occupied by various EDEN powers, however that will not last. I don’t say this as a Phoenix person, just as an old player who has seen it all before. Eventually Russia will have all their regions back, and it’s currency will rise in value. Russia is traditionally a worker’s paradise, with high wages and low, low taxes. RUB was once valued at 0.035, and has since dropped. After the occupation, the currency fell to lows of 0.013. A few lucky investors managed to buy at this rate before the market value was dragged back up. Since then RUB has risen to 0.021, which is about a 60% increase in value for anyone wise enough to invest. It will rise more as time goes on, and is still a fairly safe investment. I expect after regaining all their regions the government will attempt to stabilise, but until then it could go anywhere. The margin on RUB is almost 7%. The “magic number” for an increase in value is about 5%, so the upward pressure on the currency is high. There are only ten offers at the peg, totalling about 26,000 RUB. It is definitely the currency of the hour.



SEK - Sweden

SEK is a currency which has seen better times: Once one of the strongest economies in the world, the collapse of the Swedish Empire in 2009 has seen the currency fall on hard times. Maintaining a peg of 0.025 throughout it’s strong period, SEK fell to 0.02 after the formation of EDEN. Since then it has tumbled, with occupations by Norway and a declining population. A brief resurgence due to a baby boom pushed national income up to around 30g per day, but now the economy is once again in relative decline. The currency currently trades at 0.015, which is high for SEK, again probably due to gold investment in the market post-strength changes. There is almost no currency at the peg, though there is a single offer of 10k at 0.016, which suggests the Swedish government is trying to encourage the currency to gain value. If that is true, then buying up the remaining currency at peg could be a wise move. With margins of just 2% however, it might not last.



SIT - Slovenia

SIT is a traditionally strong currency, in V1 it held to the 0.03 standard. After the occupation by Croatia, SIT managed to hold its value fairly well. However V2 caused an exodus of players which weakened the value of all currencies, SIT included. It tumbled under further invasions, and has since recovered to 0.018. I wouldn’t consider SIT particularly stable- even should it suffer no further incursions, it will almost certainly try to regain regions which could affect the value of the currency. There is only 9000 or so currency at 0.018, with a Slovenian bank offer at 0.019. The margins at 0.018 are about 4.19%, which are just shy of being enough for the currency to gain value on its own.



TRY - Turkey

TRY has been a strange currency as long as I have known it. It is bought and sold in bursts. Traditionally it traded at around 0.023- similar to Iran, Brazil and Argentina. With the recent baby boom, TRY has gained a lot of value. This is of course simple economics- same amount of pie, more people want a slice, demand goes up. The currency trades at 0.027, with 22,000 currency at that rate. Despite such a low number, margins are just 1.2%, so I don’t really expect the currency to gain a lot of value without massive changes in population or region ownership.



USD - United States

USD has always been a fairly strong and stable currency. Since v2 it has aimed to peg itself at 0.02, and it is selling at that rate now. Although the US economy is by no means the powerhouse it once was, it is still one of the major powers. Once the USA was the strongest country in EDEN, and perhaps the world- now it is roughly on a par with countries like Indonesia in terms of income. In terms of currency, the currency has a margin of less that 1%, with just over 200,000 currency, mainly in large offers, at the peg. This is evidence of a tightly controlled currency, since without government intervention there would be smaller offers at 0.019 most likely. The tiny profit margin and tightly controlled nature of the currency, plus the huge surplus at 0.02, make USD a poor trading currency both short and long term. It is, at least, stable- meaning that if you have a lot of USD you don’t have to worry too much about it losing a lot of value.



ZAR - South Africa

South Africa is a PTO’d country, with good resource allocation, namely titanium. These resources have made it a target for Brazil, Indonesia and now PTO groups throughout its history. It has a fairly good tax income for such a small country, and ZAR usually trades around 0.02, where it is now. There is about 7000 currency at that rate, and a government offer of around 50,000 at 0.021, which is presumably their preferred rate. The margin at 0.02 is around 3.8%, which again is just shy of gaining value. I expect with the gold side push it could go up to 0.021 if someone gives it a hand. There is a consistent demand for currency in SA, mainly because most of the titanium companies there export abroad, and then the gold income is turned into ZAR for wages. This means that ZAR’s value is directly proportional to the health of South Africa’s exports. Anyone wanting to trade ZAR should be aware that selling currency is much easier than selling gold.


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Well- that is it. Between two articles I have given my thought on all of the Phoenix and EDEN currencies, as well as a couple of up-and-coming countries. If I have missed you out, I am sorry. I don’t trade every currency myself, and I think it is irresponsible to give advice about currencies I don’t regularly watch. Small countries like Singapore and so on have very changeable and slow trading markets- these make any sort of analysis somewhat suspect. For people in small countries wanting advice- remember stability is the key to a growing economy. Investors who are looking for somewhere to make a company look for low VAT taxes, low import tax, and a stable currency. If you have all these things, your economy will grow- at least as far as the population allows.

I have a few ideas about what I should do my next article on, but if anyone has any specific requests then please let me know.

Until then o/

Iain