Religion will play a big role in this century's politics.||| In Western politics, too, religion has forced itself back into the public square. The American president begins each day on his knees and each cabinet meeting with a prayer. The easiest way to tell a Republican from a Democrat is to ask how often he or she goes to church. And although European liberals sneer about American theocracy, American conservatives claim that secular, childless Europe is turning into Eurabia.
Many secular intellectuals think that the real clash of civilisations is not between different religions but between superstition and modernity. A succession of bestselling books have torn into religion Sam Harris's The End of Faith, Richard Dawkins's The God Delusion and Christopher Hitchens's God is not Great How Religion Poisons Everything. This counterattack already shows a religious intensity. Mr Dawkins has set up an organisation to help atheists around the world.
Part of that secular fury, especially in Europe, comes from exasperation. After all, it has been a canon of progressive thought since the Enlightenment that modernity that heady combination of science, learning and democracy would kill religion. Plainly, this has not happened. Numbers about religious observance are notoriously untrustworthy, but most of them seem to indicate that any drift towards secularism has been halted, and some show religion to be on the increase. The proportion of people attached to the world's four biggest religions Christianity, Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism rose from 67% in 1900 to 73% in 2005 and may reach 80% by 2050 .
Moreover, from a secularist point of view, the wrong sorts of religion are flourishing, and in the wrong places. In general, it is the tougher versions of religion that are doing best the sort that claim Adam and Eve met 6,003 years ago. Some of the new converts are from the ranks of the underprivileged (Pentecostalism has spread rapidly in the favelas of Brazil), but many are not. American evangelicals tend to be well-educated and well-off. In India and Turkey religious parties have been driven by the up-and-coming bourgeoisie.
With modernity now religion's friend, an eternal subject has become fashionable. Father Richard John Neuhaus points out that when he founded his Center for Religion and Society in 1984, there were only four centers of religion and public life in America; now, he thinks, there are more than 200. Religious people are getting more vocal in all sorts of fields, including business. Religion is also cropping up in economics. Niall Ferguson, a Scottish historian, re-examined Max Weber's theory of the Protestant work ethic to explain why Europeans work less than Americans.
The garden of Eden
Philip Jenkins, one of America's best scholars of religion, claims that when historians look back at this century, they will probably see religion as Ã¢ï¿½&ium l;¿½the prime animating and destructive force in human affairs, guiding attitudes to political liberty and obligation, concepts of nationhood and, of course, conflicts and wars.Ã¢ï¿½ ;ï¿½ If the first seven years are anything to go by, Mr Jenkins may well turn out to be right.
What has changed? The main protagonists are oddly unhelpful in providing explanations. Believers usually produce some version of you can't repress the truth for ever.Ã¢ï¿½ ;ï¿½ Sociologists point out that outside western Europe most people have always been religious. Peter Berger, the dean of the subject, chides journalists for investigating the religious rule, not the secular exception: Rather than studying American evangelicals and Islamic mullahs, you should look at Swedes and New England college professors.
Yet even if underlying piety has not changed that much, religion's role in public life plainly has. Only ten years ago, most academics and politicians would have dismissed Mr Jenkins's claim about religion being central to politics as weird.
After all, for much of the 20th century religion was banished from politics. For most elites, God had been undone by Darwin, dismissed by Marx, deconstructed by Freud. Stalin forcibly ejected Him, but in much of western Europe there was no need for force: religion had been on the slide for centuries. In Britain the long withdrawing roar of Anglicanism that Matthew Arnold lamented faded to a distant echo in the 20th century.
In America the number of churchgoers stayed high, but evangelical Christians retreated from politics, embarrassed by the failure of prohibition and the Scopes Monkey trial (in which creationists were mocked). In 1960 Jack Kennedy assured the country that his Catholicism would not pollute his politics. In 1966 Time magazine famously ran a cover asking Is God dead?; three years later man reached the moon, metaphorically conquering the heavens.
For modernizing post-colonial leaders in the developing world, secularism and progress were indivisible. The fez, said Kemal Ataturk, sat upon our heads as a sign of ignorance and fanaticism. In India Jawaharlal Nehru wished to make a clean sweep of organized religion: almost always it seems to stand for blind belief and reaction, dogma and bigotry, superstition and exploitation and the preservation of vested interests.Ã¢ï¿&f rac12;ï¿½ In Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser, the champion of Arab nationalism, clamped down on the Muslim Brotherhood. Africa's new rulers nationalized the Christian mission schools that had taught them. Even the Jewish state deemed religion a distraction: after Israel's founding in 1948 the secular David Ben-Gurion agreed that rabbinical law would prevail in matters such as marriage and divorce partly because he assumed the Orthodox would melt away.
In retrospect, the turning point came long before Osama bin Laden declared his jihad on Jews and Crusaders. For Timothy Shah, a scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York who is writing a book on secularism, the symbolic turning point was the six-day war of 1967. It marked a crushing defeat for secular pan-Arabism; meanwhile Israel's miraculous triumph gave God a stronger voice in its politics, emboldening the settler movement. In the same year a Hindu nationalist party won 9.4% of the vote in India.
By the end of the 1970s this counter-revolution was in full swing. America had elected its first proudly born-again Christian, Jimmy Carter; Jerry Falwell had founded the Moral Majority; Iran had replaced the worldly shah with Ayatollah Khomeini; Zia ul Haq was busy Islamising Pakistan; Buddhism had been formally granted the foremost place in Sri Lanka's constitution; and an anti-communist Pole had become head of the Catholic church.
What caused this shift? Believers inevitably see a populist revolt against the overreach of elitist secularismbe it America's Supreme Court legalizing pornography or Indira Gandhi harrying Hindus. From a more secular viewpoint, John Lewis Gaddis, a Yale historian, points out that much religious politics dates back to the 1970s, a time when more worldly isms seemed to fail. By then, the Soviet Union's evils had made a mockery of Marxism, and capitalism had also hit some buffers (the oil shocks, hyperinflation). More generally, politicians' ability to solve problems such as crime or unemployment was questioned: faith in government tumbled just about everywhere in the 1970sÃ¢ï¿½ ;ï¿½and has stayed low since.
But why has religion's power seemed to keep on increasing? The first reason is a series of reactions and counter-reactions. Fundamentalist Islam, for instance, has helped spur radical Judaism and Hinduism, which in turn have reinforced the mullahs' fervor. Hamas owes much to Israel's settlers. Without Falwell, Messrs Hitchens and Dawkins would have smaller royalties.
Second, the latest form of modernity globalisation has propelled religion forward. For traditionalists, faith has acted as a barrier against change. For prosperous suburbanites, faith has become something of a lifestyle coach. It is no accident that America's bestselling religious book is called The Purpose Driven LifeÃ¢ï¿½ ï¿½.
A hitch for the Hitch
Whatever the exact cause, two groups of people in particular have struggled to come to terms with this new world. The first is politicians, especially practitioners of foreign policy. Realpolitik does not easily cope with the irrational. For instance, religion does not appear in the index of Diplomacy, Henry Kissinger's 900-page masterpiece on statesmanship (a mistake, admits the former secretary of state, who now sees some depressing similarities with 17th-century Europe).
Mr Kissinger is not alone. Before September 11th 2001, most big books (with the exception of Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilizations predicted a secular end to history. The Economist was so confident of the Almighty's demise that we published His obituary in our millennium issue. Madeleine Albright recalls a meeting at the State Department about Northern Ireland in the late 1990s when a diplomat asked despairingly: Who would believe that we would be dealing with a religious conflict near the end of the 20th century?
September 11th has changed that. A decade ago, a proposal by the CIA to study religion was vetoed as mere sociology; that would not happen now. But mistakes are still made. When America went into Iraq, people worried about George Bush's God-directed foreign policy; in fact it would have helped if Donald Rumsfeld et al had understood more about religion especially the difference between Shias and Sunnis. Everywhere we look, we have religious problems, admits one (born-again) member of the Bush team. And it is not just Islam. There are the Orthodox in Russia, Hindu nationalism in India, Christians in China...the list is long.
The other group struggling to deal with religion's role in public life are liberals. When religious belief is plainly unreasonable for instance, when schools teach creationism it is easy to fight. But in many disputes there are liberal answers on both sides. Those who are embracing religion nowadays are doing so out of choice. Is it liberal to stop a British Airways worker from wearing a crucifix? Whose rights are being infringed when a majority of people on a Turkish bus ask the driver to stop so they can pray?
A schism in Western liberalism that dates back to its two founding revolutions seems to have reopened. In France, where the Catholic church was the sole faith, the revolutionnaires detested God as a crucial part of the ancien regime: politics, they declared, henceforth would be protected from this evil. By contrast, America's Founding Fathers, used to many competing faiths, took a more benign view. They divided church from state not least to protect the former from the latter.
This special report is an attempt to tease out these conflicts. It comes with three health warnings. First, many numbers in religion are dodgy: most churches inflate their support and many governments do not record religion in their censuses (in Nigeria the best source is health records). Second, in a field where many believers claim to know all the answers, it poses mainly questions. And lastly, given the emotion the subject arouses, the chances are that some of what follows will offend you.
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