My experience with the Power Spin
Day 2,843, 03:35
•
Published in Netherlands 
•
by
•
by Redi Jodikku
Today Plato decided to give us the opportunity to invest in the power spin to get tons of prizes and a lot of gold. What a nice guy don’t you think so? The jackpot, or the main prize, consists on the amazing amount of 500 golds, for some this is a piece of shit but for others this is an amazingly big amount of money. I’m one of those who thinks it’s a lot.
But, as I tend to see myself as someone conservative, I used to not spend a single gold on it, just the free spin, whatever I win makes me better off (not completely true as the bazooka booster is worthless, but anyway).
But this time something different happened, in my first spin I got the jackpot, I did not expect something like that, at all. This was the first time in my life I got it, so I decided to ask for others opinion.
Screen shot of my first spin
Seeing this I decided to spend a little, chances were at my favour, we all have 1 out of 8 chances to get the jackpot, or this will be the real probability, in a real spin, but don’t be fooled, this is less real than Kim Kardashian’s ass.
But, i felt motivated to go for it (for the Jackpot). Plato had set me a trap and I had completely fell on it. I spend 77,5 golds, what’s 34 spins + the free spins I got, that was about 6 more spins. So, in 40 spins i got 0 jackpots. Statistically this is not that strange (It is complicated, but not impossible). But what warned me that I had being fooled was something different (don’t get me wrong, I knew all the time the power spin is manipulated, but I was encouraged because of the good results, something that often happens to players). The most strange thing I’ve seen during my spin was that I got the Guerrilla items 6 times in a row! What’s the probability of this? Almost 0. It’s 1/( 8 )^6 , so a 0.00038% .
In conclusion, that was my experience today, Plato “convinced” me to “invest”, but luckily I regained my sanity in time and even though the lost was big, that could have been way bigger.
If you want to follow my advice, don’t spend in the spin to win the gold, spin there if you want a certain prize and you think you can afford it.
And to conclude, take in mind that, in my teacher's words, “Lottery and random games are the tax for stupidity”.
As always, thanks for your time, and have a nice day.
Facebook
Twitter
Discord
Comments
V
In reality,we call Casino
but
in erepublik,we call Power Spin.
о/
100% true
vote
Thanks http://prntscr.com/8bpc6e 😃
The Rules of the Con
1) Find somebody who wants something for nothing, then give him nothing for something
2) You can’t cheat an honest man
keep going. you will win it all before you spend 500 gold 😛
yeah, sure 😛
v
Vote
7 times in a row Guerrilla items for me.
Coin in the air.......... voted
I just chase 100% booster 😃
And even that until 2,5-3g per spin 🙂
mira jordic mi primer jack pot ( que me han tocado dos en toda mi evida )
http://imgur.com/TJARe4l eso si... me gaste 20 pavos el dia anterior y el segundo jack me gaste como mas de 100 y los demas ..hubo uno me gaste la friolera de 450 o mas y nada...
El tema es que esta mas que trucado, y que, o te lo da cuando quiere, o la probabilidad no es de 1/8 como deberia ser.
pues eso ya solo me gasto 10 gold al dia y poco mas por que es una mierda que te cagas... si me toca el jack en las primeras que prefiero que no... voy con casi todo el gold , asi me paso .. la vez de 100 y la vez de 450 gold aprendi la leccion.
The chance of getting 6 boxes of Guerrilla items in the first 6 spins would be as you calculated, IF all the chances are equal.
But we all know both are not the case. Also I doubt that you really were only interested in boxes of Guerilla items, so a streak of 6 of anything should count...
The chance of encountering a streak of 6 of any of the 8 options at some point during your 40 spins is already a lot bigger. If my intuition is correct that should be (1+40-6)*(1/😎^(6-1)=0.1068%. So even with equal chances that is more than a one in thousand chance.
Assuming there is one likely item with a 25% chance (and all other options are slightly less likely), the chance of having 6 of this likely item in a row is:
(1+40-6)*(1/4)^(6)=0.854%
And at a 30% chance for the likely item, this already increases to:
(1+40-6)*(0.3)^(6)=2.55%
We (or at least I) can not know the exact chance of get any prize, cause it's clearly manipulated, but theoretically they must all have the same chance to get "won".
An old survey under the eRep players gave the following approximate odds. But obviously by now something must have changed since 2x Bazooka is no longer a reward, while the box of Guerrilla items is.
20%:
Bazooka Booster
+50% Damage Booster for 10 minutes
2x Bazooka
19%:
Free Spin
6.6%:
2x Energy Bar
+100 Energy Center for 7 days
+100 prestige points
1%
Jackpot
Probably this math is clearer if you just simplify it to tossing a fair coin N times.
A streak of 6 in 6 throws means you have to throw "hhhhhh" or "tttttt". There are 2^6 possible series, so 2/(2^6)😞1/2)^(6-1)=3.125%.
A streak of at least 6 in 7 throws means you have to throw "hhhhhhh", "thhhhhh", "hhhhhht", "ttttttt", "htttttt" or "tttttth". There are 2^7 possible series, so 6/(2^7)=4.6875%.
PS: The (1+40-6) part given in my original post is a rough approximation of the answer. I guess it's quite good because of the very small probability of a 6-long streak when there are 8 options... But for these coin tosses you can clearly see that it is not twice as likely to have a series of 6 in 7 throws as it is to have one in 6 throws (but it is correct if you count the series of 7 as 2 series of 6, which it actually is 😛 ).
And apparently for these coin tosses you get
2*(5*0.5^6-4*0.5^7)=9.375%
for a series of a streak of 6 in 10 tosses.
So the chance of a streak of 6 in 6 tosses is three times smaller than a streak of 6 in 10 tosses.
This last example is there mainly to illustrate that indeed a longer series helps improve the odds by a lot...
For the example with the power spins, the chance of a series of 6 in 10 spins is
8*(5*0.125^6-4*0.125^7)=0.0137% assuming all options have equal chances. This already is a lot bigger than the number you mentioned, but for 40 spins this will be even larger...
Still, like my simplified calculation showed, it will be a very unlikely event, unless the chances are non-equal, which we already know well...
I used to only do the one free spin, but the last few times they've put it up I spin a few more times until it seems like it's getting too expensve.
Today, excluding free spins, I won 1 bazooka booster, 2 10 minute 50% damage boosters, 1 guerilla pack, 1 EB, 100 useless prestige points and...
JACKPOT!!!!!
...but I only got the 7 day 500 health energy center 🙁
Stil,l not a bad haul for ~8 gold
That would mean 2 jackpots as the first is a 100% 24 hours booster...
Really - could be, I was on my phone so I could have missed it and I do have one of those on the fight page, don't know if I had it from another time or not..
So do you need to hit the Jackpot 3 times to get the gold prize. Let me know, maybe I should keep spinning.
Yeah, you're right - I'm two thirds of the way there - Curse you Plato!! I'm going waste my pile of gold trying to win that jackpot now
And now I'm poor!
Did you really try it? How was it? Did you win?
I did try - did not win
No ways I love power spin, it gave me 500 gold.
Well said, 8 years later !