Ice Killa's analysis of the current geopolitical position

Day 2,211, 10:33 • Published in Portugal Slovenia • by Ice Killa
"TWO is dead."

The current situation in eRepublik is frightening and confusing to regular by-standers, but makes complete sense to those who have actively participated in changing TWO from inside. We have seen some recent frictions in the strongest alliance, Cookies Crisp was made to be the bad guy. The truth is, he did mess up - the process of Spain being kicked out. He did not mess up with his intentions of Spain being kicked out.

Spain simply has to act against interests of TWO. It cannot abandon Chile or Brazil. If it does, it risks being left alone with no allies except the interest driven Poland - and even Poles were willing to abandon Spain at the start of previous month from what the exSerbian MoFA has been saying in public. Prophet009 could confirm it if put to a lie detector. Spain cannot change to TWO's liking not that it won't, simple as that.

The move to secure Spanish west border signing a deal with USA is logical, but only from Spain and Poland's point of view and if the mentioned view TWO as a dying alliance. Then, the recent moves seem far more logical. Certain individuals like former Polish CP Prophet009 claim NAP has remained unchanged. Not true, there's one slight and important change where Spoland and USA have bounded themselves to improving mutual relations. In other words, that would be comparable to Serbia signing a deal with Portugal or Germany promising relations ought to improve. The geopolitical position surely isn't comparable, but the act itself would be.

TWO nor any TWO members were notified Spoland had made this deal with an enemy.


The troubling part of NAP agreement well described in this picture. In the new agreement the included parties promise not to fight against each other - a direct attack against the integrity of TWO.

Serbian government tried to denounce the NAP, but was fairly unsuccessful at it, being refused by all 3 signatories. The new Serbian officials have declared they plan on joining the agreement Spoland has signed, meaning complete subordination and lack of proper judgment where this might be leading and how it might hurt Serbian reputation.


Serbia-Poland and Spain
The friendship pact Warsaw-Belgrade never existed on mutual trust or friendship, it has always been a pact of interests. But here is where the situation gets more complicated. The mutual "nullification" of interests and asserting power in the alliance between Poland and Serbia creates the situation we have been witnessing recently. Imagine 2 pawns meeting each other on a chess board, now one is Poland, the other is Serbia. They block each other and make any attempts to change the situation futile. The 2 countries create status quo. And this is where Spain comes in, by Serbia blocking Polish asserting of power in the alliance and Poland vice versa, Spaniards are left alone to pursue their own agendas being backed by the silent and non-visible Poland.


Translation: "Serbian bastard, kneel before the Polish master."
*MisziPL is the current Polish CP

Poland does not care for Spain due to mutual friendship, the latter is Poland's only real and influential "ally". Poles have no one to rely on - so to put pressure on Spain (even if they actually disagree with artificially created TWO-CUA frictions by self-driven interests from Spaniard officials) would be comparable to shooting a friendly soldier, it would make Poland Croatia v2. They rather preserve Spain as an ally than Argentina to keep the last bastion of influence and a way out if things in TWO go wrong.

Slovenia's role
Spain never really had an adversary inside the alliance to counter antiTWO moves. Three months ago is when the enemy emerged by Slovenia publicly denouncing Spanish moves. By then Spain was still convinced TWO has no clue and that sooner or later Chile will be considered as the "rightful" choice in South America. Gradually the shift began by Serbia putting diplomatic pressure on Spaniards making them abandon ROLA MPPs.

Then came November, and Spaniards continued antiTWO moves by trying to create some kind of a rift between TWO and CUA. When Portugal was attacked, Spain controlled all 10 resources and could have simply preserved diplomatic and military status quo. It would make more sense than attacking an enemy whilst endangering one's resources and to back it up; Portugal was fighting for its own survival.

One can thus automatically assume Spain had directed its efforts into making CUA TWO's enemies and almost succeeded at it. Slovenian response opposing such actions seemed urgent. Spanish moves were publicly denounced in government newspaper. The MPP proposed by Spain to Slovenia was refused due to aggressive stance without any proper backing why the attack was even conducted - which made me as Slovenian CP at the time automatically assume it was not directed only against Portugal, but against CUA in general. A clear sign was sent from Slovenia to Spain - do not play with the integrity of the alliance.

Argentina-Chile NAP
It's fair to assume that such an unfolding of events is not in Spain's interest. On the long term it could easily lead to South American countries uniting. Spain failed at divide et impera.


Bonus picture: (former) Chilean CP Kadercito fighting against Spain during the Portuguese-Spanish war.

Current situation
Serbia and Slovenia, the main opposition to Spoland driven interests, both managed to get proPoland governments at the helm. Spoland won the diplomatic escalation of tensions, although it is fair to assume TWO is dead since TWO HQ as an entity has absolutely no power over how the paper alliance functions. SG as the leader of the alliance cannot even express his own opinion out in public regarding the current situation deeming the position worthless or even worse, degrading it to the rank of a puppet.

Poland and Spain both revealed their true opinion concerning Serbia, change will happen, if not this month, the next definitely.

Best regards,
Ice Killa aka Howly,
former CP of Slovenia and former dSG of TWO

Personal opinion.