Experiments on Humans. Volunteers Needed!
pure_evil
"Relax, it's for statistical purposes only."
-Napoleon to his commanders before Waterloo.
Short version:
In my previous article I've used the number 3 for the number of tank clicks per kill. For my next article, I need some accurate data for a change, so, can you help me out a bit?
Introduction
In my previous article I've made the claim that stashing bazookas by using tanks to fulfill the daily kill count costs more than the cash received by a BH medal, secured by those bazookas, for lower-strength and rank players not in communes that... Wait. The model is there, read it.
So, I started writing a second article on the topic.
You know, "Don't do it, it's bad for you!" and leave it like that - is a good thing in principle.
But, "Do this instead, it's better for you" is more useful on a few occasions, say, when suggesting something.
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Now, the article itself is done - b-u-u-u-t - it's predictions don't fit the observations.
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In essence, the alternative strategy is predicted to be a far worse option than what I'm actually experiencing in the last few days.
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It all boils down to the clicks-per-kill estimate. My original estimate of 3 clicks per kill with a tank (on average) appears to be more or less accurate, though it's a bit too early for champagne.
However, building on that and coming up with 6-7 clicks-per-kill unarmed is where the breakdown occurs. I'm actually observing a lower value - somewhere in the range of 4-5 clicks, which gives the unarmed fighter a real advantage.
In short: I'm not struggling with the daily order as much as I originally expected.
I have some ideas as to why that might happening, but I still can not be sure that there actually is a "that", which is actually happening.
Using clicks-per-kill rather than tanks-per-order gives a much clearer picture as it ignores, say, the 3/5 of a tank remaining after the order.
Needz Moar Data
Now, just how many clicks any single kill takes depends on so many variables, that it'll take a whole article just to list them.
So, I'm gonna go statistical on the subject and try to come up with a more or less, representative value.
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This is where you come in.
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Basically, I need a large enough sample of values of the type:
"I killed X enemies unarmed by clicking fight Y times".
or the same thing, though, with a tank.
I need the values for tank fights and unarmed only, and for complete kills.
For example, a kill that was started with a tank but was finished with a fist is not of interest. Or, of course, a kill that was started, but couldn't be finished.
I'm interested in pure kills, rather than micromanaged ones. Throwing the usage of another Q weapon in the equation will completely eff up the model at this point.
Bazooka kills don't need research as it's 1 click-per-kill, according to latest studies
😛
How to get the data?
The easiest thing to do is:
1. Check your XP value
2. Fight in a battle and kill a bunch of people (Get a hold of yourself man, it's in the name of science!)
3. Give me the kill count you've made and the XP gained.
Where to submit the data?
Well, you can write it in the comments for one.
Or, PM it to me with instructions as to whether it should be published as a separate sample at all - or, if published, should your name be linked to it, etc.
Then what?
Then, I'll publish the results, give you credit, and get the new article updated and published with observed values, though, statistical in nature.
Is it worth it?
Well, apart from the data being useful for you, it will also help in releasing the next article earlier.
Speaking of which, here's a small part of it...
[...]
Does seeing this cause you to instinctively hop in the nearest tank?
[...]
=================Vote and Subscribe! (And... shout, perhaps?)=================
Or be afraid. Be very, very, afraid....
Comments
First denied as a statistically insignificant value.
[removed]
It's difficult to say: I use different types of weapon depending on how much energy the enemy has.
^ Good point.
Edite😛 I've mentioned that the micromanaged kills are to be skipped.
Its random sometimes it takes me 9 hits unarmed sometimes it takes me 2. Tanks is usually 1-3
Lexone, it depends on the enemy's strenght and weapon: if his strenght and weapon are equal to yours, you make 25 for attack. If enemy is stronger than you, attack decrease, if he's weaker, increase.
^ It depends on so many variables that it's not even funny, let alone short enough to list them all in a single comment.
First, it depends on your enemy's stats, weapon, health;
Second, it depends on your own parameters;
Third, it depends on when/where you fight, e.g. what possible opponents you have available.
I have yet to fight against a Private since this battle mode was introduced, then again, I haven't been faced with a God Of War either.
I've also yet to one-hit 25 enemies in a row, though on the other hand I've yet to face an enemy I need more than 10 hits to take out (armed, or, unarmed).
If you fight early in the battle, you might find yourself fighting just the same 2-3 people over, and over again. You can find yourself vs a very weak few, or, vs a very strong few. Importance of the battle, etc.
The list goes on and on... 'till the point one forgets where he started lol
I'm hoping to come up with something like "X randomly chosen people over the span of 1000 kills with tank average out to have 3 clicks per hit with a tank", so I can use the number with some confidence
BTW so far tank kill _do_ average out at about 3 for 2 people of vastly different stats, but 'till I get to something like at least 10 people, I can't rely on the value.
@Lexone - as you fight unarmed, and that's rare, can you help me out with some unarmed data?
@Mister Y - how about you? If you find yourself on a pure tank streak (e.g. BH/CH hunt or something)?
Just give me kill count and change in XP for a battle.
You can actually give the average itself, but I prefer to have a large enough sample before working out the value.
Any data is much appreciated!
In essence, I'm trying to discover is it just me, or can most people reach the daily kill count by burning yesterday's bazookas and fighting unarmed, the wellness requirements for such a feat, how much USD can be saved etc.
Since there appear to _be_ some rules on enemy selection, I believe that, rather than focusing on the enemy selection mechanism _itself_, I can treat it like a black box (e.g. ignore how it works). Also, as the clicks-per-kill are a straightforward result of you and the enemy selected, I can also bypass that.
I can instead come up with reliable values by averaging out many kills by different people over many different battles.
So far, for _me_, for two battles and over 44 kills, it averages out at 3.6 unarmed hits per kill. Which is weird, as one expects that if tanks average at 3, unarmed should average at 6.
I killed 25 people and gained 74 xp
With tanks, I presume?
Yep, a nice almost-three (2.96) right there. Thanks!
Update on unarme😛 162 hits for 44 kills turned to 212 hits for 59 kills. Average so far: 3.59 clicks-per-kill
"Third, it depends on when/where you fight, e.g. what possible opponents you have available. I have yet to fight against a Private since this battle mode was introduced, then again, I haven't been faced with a God Of War either."
You get matched randomly against opponents in your own strength range. When there aren't enough of them, you kill the same-strengther individuals over and over.
As for the rest, I cba counting when I'm fighting. So I use PULSE instead 🙂
Yep. And since, in essence, the enemy is selected based on _you_ (With some element of randomness - both for who to choose from the appropriate enemies list from the battle, and for RL - e.g., who ended up in the battle at/before the time you did), and, the number of clicks it takes again depends on _you_, I believe I can smooth out the randomness with an average value over a large enough sample.
BTW the easiest way is to look at the XP you have, fight, check the battle stats for the kill count, and the difference in XP gives the click count
nope, the easiest way is to use Pulse and forget about counting. You could also run a few scenarios in a damage calculator, and give yourself some nice empirical data 🙂
I'm a bit uneasy about installing anything on top of my browser, but if you already have it installed, good for you ; )
Usefulness of a damage calc is a bit questionable, as I need the real observed click count, not the influence done. Also, it'd really suck not only having to invent the enemy, but one's own parameters.
ok ok ok you wore me down.
I might count a bit in the interests of science.
Maybe...
😉
Got 41 exp for killing 11 with my own two fists.
71 Q5 shot gave 24 kills
~3.7 FreedomFightr, close to my avg BTW.
Thanks!
Hmmm, a pattern is slowly emerging.
So far, it looks like tanks kills' value is somewhere between 2.6 and 3 clicks per kill (but not above 3), which is a reasonable expectation.
Unarmed, though, appears to be around 4, which is quite surprising - the expectation should be 5.2 to 6 (half the damage, twice the clicks), best case 5 (overkill with a tank). An odd result, indeed...
Keep the data comin', we be sciencin' out here!
@Grainne Ni Mhaille - (puppy eyes, matching voice) Would you do that... pleeeease?
@Spirtins - 2.95 average, close enough to 3, slightly below it.
Thanks!
Could it be converging towards actual values set in the game code, in effect, the_very_ mechanism for enemy selection?
Speculating a lot here, but that the heck.
106 hits / 38 kills Q5
15 exp / 5 kills
Creativitya - ~2.79
FreedomFightr - exactly 3. 5 is a small sample, so I'm seriously guessing here - tanks? (If it were 10 for 30, I'd be pretty confident)
Thanks, guys, keep it comin'!
Hits - Kills
88 - 28
54 - 20
55 - 17
32 - 10
59 - 17
96 - 30
91 - 31
98 - 32
Totals:
573 - 185
Average ~3.1
with q5 weapons
btw I wrote a freaken long reply on your previous article, but I don't see it there now. pfffft
@Dodona - eRep bugs like that a lot, I always copy the text for a comment, message, or a whole article. I've lost so much text that way it's sad : (
Thanks for the very usefully organized data! BTW all of the individual samples are around 3 CPK themselves.
So, tanks _indeed_ give on average ~3 clicks-per-kill, the deviations from that number can be safely attributed to environment noise and randomness rather than specific player level/strength/rank.
My previous article is (sort of) saved!
The number is holding true for any subset of almost a thousand kills so far, for 6 people, some of which threw the dice twice, so to speak.
Dodona threw them eight times, with the biggest deviation of anyone so far (+0.47) on the 59/17 sample.
Still - if tanks are 3, unarmed should be 6 (or 5, if tank "overkill" is considered). Why 4-ish? (though ofc I needz moar data for the value)
Keep it comin'!
(P.S. I posted this comment and found myself on the homepage with it missing, luckily I had it ctrl+c'd... sigh... Erep...)
69 Q5 hits, 24 kills.
It's worth noting that the game has a really hard time matching me in RWs, as I will commonly get all one- or two-hit kills. One I remember in particular resulted in 89 Q5 hits for 89 kills, the best I can possibly do in one battle without energy bars.
I virtually never fight bare-hand, so I can't help you there, but I do know that ~3.4 hits per kill matches my general results. I usually plan on requiring at least 80 hits to fulfill the daily order.
44hits with q5 wep >> 30 kills : )
So I am lazy and running figures off eRA ... Ofc that's based on fights I've done on this browser, so hits made from my mobile/other system is ignored - but it should do for your studies I hope. All Q5 hits.
53 hits - 17 kills
174 - 55
70 - 19
243 - 82
208 - 66
38 hits, 11 kills
50 hits, 17 kills
Both of these in the same day, fighting in different battles.
@uche biraderiniz - that's one _very_ lucky streak - 1.46 CPK? Did you use a bazooka or two as well? If not, you're paying for the next round of beers
: D
@Vladimir Czenishkov - Are those Q5 kills or unarmed? I'm pretty confident the second sample are tanks (2.94 clicks per kill), though the 3.45 CPK of the first sample are close to the boundary - they can be either Q5 (a tough group) or unarmed (an easy group)
Thanks for all the samples so far, keep 'em coming!
BTW yesterday's unarmed sample:
101 clicks for 22 kills ~4.60 CPK unarmed.
I need to sort out the few samples that were not described and get the actual values - per sample, per player, total average, and publish the results.
I have yet to do that, but I believe that the data so far gives enough confidence to claim that a Q5 has a CPK somewhere in the range of 2.5-3.5 for any large enough sample and an average of about 3.
Unarmed data is so far very scarce, and the uncertainty is very large, so it's too early for that value. It appears to range from as low as ~3.6 to as high as 4.8, maybe even 5. I think it'll end up at about 4, but it's still very early for a definitive statement on that.
Still, the pattern is clearing on unarmed as well - although it's half the damage of a tank, it is sufficiently below twice the CPK to not attribute the deviation to tank overkill.
In essence the dice appear to slightly favor unarmed.
Needz Moar Data! (If you know somebody to fight unarmed, help me out here, guys, much appreciated!)
47 hits, 14 kills. Bare-friggin-handed.
@maverick10 Dodge Knight
3.12, 3.16, 3.68, 2.96, 3.15 per sample.
748 total clicks for 239 kills, your average is ~3.13 for the whole streak, and ~3.21 for the samples if treated as individual streaks.
I really need to organize the data into a spreadsheet before coming out with the results, as these calculations are extremely error-prone...
I never fight barehanded, so all three samples are with Q5 only.
I just fought in a home-country RW with 22 kills in 44 clicks; a result not at all remarkable based on the past three months. I typically receive a 1:1 split on 3-hit and 4-hit enemies while fighting in MPP battles.
@FreedomFightr - ~3.36, very good! Your fists appear to have the power of a tank 😛
Today's unarmed streak (so far):
34 clicks, 7 kills (tough crowd - or, it might have something to do with entering the battle with a bazooka to burn).
~4.86 so far, expected to drop to around 4 'till the end of the day
@Vladimir Czenishkov - true that.
If for some reason the battle is not crowded enough with enemies on par with you (too early, and/or not enough interest in it, a rare combo of str/rank etc), you might find yourself either mashing the weaklings, or, on an uphill struggle with the big boys, and either of those skews the results a bit.
However, those 2 CPKs you've got at the 44/22 are smoothed out a bit, check it out - so far, 132 hits/50 kills - 2.64. On a large enough sample you'd end up at about 3
Such specific cases is why I need a truly large dataset so any local fluke can be smoothed out by the rest
The explanation may very well lay with the players of the opposing nations Cyprus has had to contend with in RWs. Egypt and Saudi Arabia do not have very large populations, and I can't remember a single time I've had an opponent take over 2 hits in those circumstances.
I only wish admin actually explicitly made us aware of wtf is going on with the "player stills" and their matching. It was never really a big deal until Daily Orders came along, so I didn't care.
^ true. I actually bothered to monitor kill counts only when a limited, kill-so-much-enemies mission appeared, only the daily orders turned that into a regular point of interest.
Thanks to all the data everyone provided so far I have some idea what's going on when you join a battle.
Out of the whole set of enemies there, you're given a list of some sort of possible opponents.
It's more accurate to speak of "states" rather than "opponents", as I've fought the same guy twice in different "states" of his. Once, say, he was unarmed at full HP, the next time with a bazooka at 30 HP.
Then, you're given a random state from the list every time you kill one. That explains why you encounter one guy, kill him, encounter the next, kill him, encounter the first, then encounter a third - and never encounter the first ever again, which suggests there are more than enough states for you to fight.
Now, how a state ends up on the list in the first place is anybody's guess. It has something to do with your stats, and certain low and high boundaries, maybe a max of 2(3?) states per player.
The high appears to be based on your abilities - in a sense, opponent state must be such so that you don't need more than 10 hits for a kill. (11,12? What's the max anyone has encountered since daily orders were introduced?)
The low state, though, is a bit of a mystery. I can one-off for example while unarmed a Private, or a General at 10 HP with a tank. Why do I never encounter the Private, but encounter the General is not at all clear...
(I know it's a STRENGTH range, I just use ranks to illustrate the point)
great article. voted.