About the Chinese-Bulgarian NAP

Day 1,639, 02:22 • Published in China China • by mihail.cazacu

There were a few people, especially from Ukraine, who hastened to label the Chinese-Bulgarian as betrayal.

It is easy to understand why the Bulgarians were interested in that NAP: most of their damage goes currently against the Turkish RWs, so a war with China would have been an unwelcome drain.

It might be more difficult for some EDEN and Terra members to see why the NAP actually helps them a lot as well. So let's look at the map and consider the other scenario: a Bulgarian - Chinese war.

It is obvious the Bulgarians have no interest in it, so the war would have had to be started by China. And the Bulgarians would have easily closed it by RWing Northwestern Iran. Given the current imbalance between Teden on one side and ONE + Bulgaria on the other side there was no way in hell Teden can
simultaneously:

1) Hold Poland and Hungary from advancing to North America;
2) Win the first Bulgarian-Chinese battle;
3) Help China in South America to reach the Atlantic and threaten Spain;
4) Successfully defend Northwestern Iran from an RW;
5) Win other RWs in China, in key bonus regions (most of the EDEN Military Units depend on the Chinese bonuses - if the bonuses vanish all the EDEN firepower is severely diminished);
6) Keep Indonesia at bay, preventing her from invading North America together with Hungary and Poland.

Bottom line: if China would have attacked Bulgaria, the war would have been easy to close and it would have diverted the effort of Teden from other areas where the pressure of ONE is extremely high.

So what next?

It is obvious that the sooner Turkey is back on the map, the better. The good thing is Bulgaria is craving for revenge against Ukraine.

Why revenge? Because the past Ukrainian governments thought it was a good idea to recover the provinces they had leased to Bulgaria right in the middle of the Bulgarian-Turkish crisis.

The situation was similar to the Bulgarian right to veto: it was Ukraine's right to want those regions back just like it was Bulgaria's right to veto Turkey's membership in EDEN. But exercising both rights at that time was idiotic.

And of course it is a blatant double-standard to believe that Bulgaria had the right to do something stupid but Ukraine doesn't have the right to be as stupid as Bulgaria. So yeah, the Bulgarians want now to "punish" Ukraine for imitating Bulgaria's irrational behavior.

That desire for revenge is what might bring Turkey faster on the map. If the Bulgarians invade Ukraine, they won't have any incentive to stop that war (unlike the case of a Chinese-Bulgarian war).

Bulgaria is weaker than Poland, therefore she will be less able to hold onto any Ukrainian colonies, just like Poland was unable to hold onto theirs. But past experience shows the Bulgarians would try hard to do it, thus diverting damage from the Turkish RWs.

If the Bulgarians don't succumb to the desire for "revenge" then there are other two possibilities to bring Turkey back on the map.

The first one would be to provoke Bulgaria into an Ukrainian-Bulgarian war by having Ukraine attack them. An Ukrainian attack would be perceived as a major slap in the face and thus it would be impossible for the Bulgarian leaders to avoid such a war even if they would want to. That of course depends on how ready is the Ukrainian public opinion for such a "suicidal" move.

The second one would be a Romanian attack on the Black Sea Coast of Turkey. That move would be smarter later on, when the Hungarians have been evicted from France. On paper that attack would also be "suicidal" because Romania cannot successfully fight back a joint Bulgarian-Hungarian invasion. But since Romania was wiped out countless times before, one more wiping out won't make a big difference. The only thing is timing: trying to free Turkey before the Hungarians are eliminated from France would be a huge strategic mistake.

My bet is the Bulgarian public opinion would do the work for Teden, by pushing for an invasion of Ukraine. So neither Romania nor Ukraine would have to make the first move.

So let's sit back and wait calmly for the events to unfold.