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原文標題：Chile-Argentina: tres escenarios [ESP/ENG]
原作者：Pescaman

Chile has nightly damage. And indeed, today only two countries have now enough to support to the European powers: Chile and Argentina.
智利擁有夜間優勢的火力。而且的確，現今也只有兩國能夠提供歐洲足夠的火力：智利及阿根廷。

On the other hand, Croatia and Spoland want to create an imperialist alliance, capable of imposing supremacy. Serbia and Slovenia, the same. For that reason, Poland made an effort with Hungary, but today, the goal would be to convince to to Greece.
另一方面，克羅埃西亞及西班牙-波蘭想要創造一個帝國主義聯盟，也確實有能力達成如此的至高無上。塞爾維亞、斯洛維尼亞也一樣。基於以上的原因，波蘭努力地想拉攏匈牙利，但到了今日，他的目標可能轉而說服希臘。

However, opting for Greece has implications for the South American side, and generate some scenarios.
然而，若選擇希臘則會牽扯到南美洲一方，因此也產生了幾種可能。

FIRST SCENARIO. Chile and Argentina are allies and they manage their damage independently of European demand. This scenario is almost impossible today. Both countries are enemies, despite having a NAP for four months in total. Chile considers to Brazil as an ally, although the mutual MPP has not yet been renewed.
第一種。智利及阿根廷站在同一陣線，並且能夠獨立的提供歐洲所需的火力。這種狀況是現在最不可能發生的。就算簽訂了為期四個月的互不侵犯條約兩國現在仍彼此敵對。智利將巴西視為盟友，儘管雙方的MPP尚未重簽。

So, this scenario could only take place if Brazil joins to Chile and Argentina, after an agreement with Argentina. Aditionally, Brazil would need stay away from Spain, the natural enemy of the Argentinians. For these reasons, this alternative is almost an utopy, and could eventually become into more probably if the animosity between Argentina and Brazil decreases and Spaniards drops its mpp with the Serbian side, making more probably a war between Spain and Argentina.
所以，這種狀況只會在巴西在與阿根廷簽訂協議後才會加入智利及阿根廷。此外，巴西可能必須避免與阿根廷的天敵，西班牙站在同一陣線。基於以上的原因，這種幾乎狀況可以說是烏托邦，而且最終可能成真，只要阿根廷及巴西彼此的敵意能夠淡化且西班牙拋棄與塞爾維亞陣營間的互相防禦協定，若保有與塞爾維亞的互相防禦協定可能造成西班牙與阿根廷之間的戰爭。

SECOND SCENARIO. Chile as a pro Spoland country and Argentina as a pro Serbia/Slo country. The nightly damage is divided to either side. Chile and Argentina could be either within each alliance or just related by MPP. The main problem for Chile is that Spoland and Croatia want to Greece as allied. If Greece is incorporated to the alliance, Chile should stay away from MKD, however, Argentina has a problem too, due to Greece, a close argentinian allied, would become into an ally of Spain .
第二種。智利變成親西班牙-波蘭國，而阿根廷則成為親塞爾維亞-斯洛維尼亞國家。則夜間火力將會分給雙方陣營。智利及阿根廷可能會加入聯盟或僅擁有互相防禦協定。對智利而言的主要問題是，西班牙-波蘭及克羅埃西亞希望希臘加入他們的陣營。一旦希臘加入他們，智利就應該要避開馬其頓共和國，然而，阿根廷一樣有他們自己的問題，因為希臘，親阿根廷的聯盟可能轉變為西班牙的盟友。

However, it's very hard to imagine to Greece away from Argentina. Even it's easier to imagine to Argentina entering to the group Spoland + Croatia. But there is two conditions: Argentina and Spain would need to learn to be in peace in the same room and Argentina should leave a great allie😛 Serbia (and Slovenia).
然而，要希臘拋棄阿根廷是難以想像的。阿根廷加入西班牙-波蘭及克羅埃西亞還比較有可能。但是有以下兩個條件：阿根廷及西班牙必須學會和平共處，而阿根廷必須離開極佳的盟友：塞爾維亞(及斯洛維尼亞)。

That opens another scenary:
這產生了另一種狀況：

THIRD SCENARIO. Greece and Argentina stay together with Spoland and Croatia, and maybe (just maybe) Turkey (if Poland agree). As a result, Serbia would loose its nightly damage, and could get it from another old allie😛 Chile, like the CoTWO style, but reinforced. This could be possible just if Croatia chooses Argentina + Greece.
第三種。希臘及阿根廷依然是盟友，並且加入了西班牙-波蘭及克羅埃西亞，而且可能(就只是可能)還有土耳其(如果波蘭同意)。因此，塞爾維亞將會失去夜間的火力，並且轉而從老盟友智利那獲得，就像CoTWO模式，但更為強大。但這只有在克羅埃西亞選擇了阿根廷及希臘時才有可能發生。

Indeed, Bulgaria, the chilean historic allied, doesn't have major problems with Serbia (but it does have issues with Croatia), except for the Hungarians-Russians issues, and the Serbian-Romanian relationships.
確實，保加利亞，智利歷史上的盟友，和塞爾維亞沒有太大的問題(但和克羅埃西亞之間有)，除了匈牙利-俄羅斯問題及塞爾維亞-羅馬尼亞的關係。

Well, the underlying problem is that the game should be organized naturally in several alliances, about four maybe. However, if that happens, the damage dissipates, bipolarity is lost and no one can prevail over the other one: That's the opposite idea of TWO, the most successful alliance in eR, which was able to dominate the world, and incidentally, almost kill it.
嗯，有個潛在的問題是，這遊戲必須建立在數個聯盟之上，或許四個。然而，如果真的這樣的話，傷害將會被分散，兩極化將不復存，也沒有誰能夠贏過另一方：這和TWO這個eRepublik史上最成功的聯盟的概念是相反的，TWO曾經征服世界，但也意外地幾乎將這遊戲陷入死地。

Well, there another options, course. For example:
嗯，當然還有其他可能。例如：

Chile could forget to provide damage to Spoland keeping some MPP with some countries from europe. Argentina could do the same with Serbia, just keeping its historical allies, as Greece, Romania and Turkey, in addition to CUA.
智利不考慮提供西班牙-波蘭火力，並且保留一些歐洲的共同防禦協定。阿根廷對塞爾維亞做出一樣的選擇，僅僅保留歷史上的盟友，像是希臘、羅馬尼亞及土耳其，還有CUA。

That would be possible due to the NAP between both countries, because they don't need too much damage to achieve goals and for play.
基於兩國間的互不侵犯條約，這是有可能發生的，因為他們不需要花費太多火力去達成這目標並付諸實行。

Nobody knows what is gonna happen. however this is the first time in the game when Argentina, Chile and Brazil have a chance to be more independent.
沒有人知道未來將會怎麼樣。然而這是遊戲史上阿根廷、智利及巴西第一次有機會可以更加的獨立。

In fact, due to the crisis in game could be the last one chance.
事實上，在遊戲內所引發的危機可能是最後的機會。