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The Economist ~ Escaping the Garden

Tag 1,900, 11:23 von Iain Keers



Dear friends,


I’m writing to you today in eulogy to one of the greatest alliances ever to have existed in eRepublik. First founded in 2009, after the fall of ATLANTIS, EDEN was created as a tight-knit brotherhood which has grown, evolved and outlasted three major rivals and a half dozen other minor allies and enemies. Although members have come and gone, EDEN has stood together through times of struggle and times of triumph. As a leader in PEACE, Phoenix, ONE and TWO I tip my hat to the one alliance we’ve respected all the way through as a rival, enemy and friend.


With the emergence of CoT we have seen a game shift which is so profound it has essentially spelled the death knell of the alliance. With CoT and TWO on one side, the damage quota is so high it’s impossible for EDEN to win. In short term, their organisation allows them limited victory. But the huge waste of CoTWO damage isn’t enough to prevent them winning the overall war. And accompanying that defeat comes something that has never come before- a desire for change from within EDEN countries. Sometimes you just have to admit that change is good, it keeps the game interesting. Many EDEN citizens feel that time has come.





A little bit of background

When Bulgaria and Chile formed a small mutual defence agreement, few thought it had the potential to grow into an alliance to rival TWO. The first pillar of CoT came with the movement of MKD from ONE to the other block after the collapse of that alliance. Conflict with SPoland, but close alliance with Serbia meant that CoT allowed MKD to fight for their friends and maintain arms length from their erstwhile ex-allies. From there the alliance picked up friends and allies, growing to it’s current size of 14(+1). The basic policy of CoT is expansionist- they’re willing to take any member who shows commitment and isn’t directly opposed to any of their members. The exception is obviously the USA. America is so big that it’s automatically an exception, plus of course it’s a bit of a curse to any alliance it joins.


What this spelled out was that there was now a third option for countries who were drifting away from EDEN or ONE, but who wanted a full say in an equal alliance. With TWO forming with just 6 members, and no plans for expansion, it pushed TWO supporters towards CoT. As CoT grew to form a genuine rival to EDEN and TWO, the world became a very unbalanced place. A tripartite alliance system is impossible- each time it will always end up as 2 vs 1, and the two alliances working together share mutual enemies and goals, precluding swapping sides. Once CoT became a serious alliance, a bipartite system emerged with CoTWO fighting EDEN. Obviously in this case EDEN was pushed down, and began shedding members.





After EDEN


With EDEN sinking, where do it’s members go? One option is to do what PEACE’s children have been doing for years and reform under a new name, new logo, new HQ and new rules. But creating such an obvious target would only draw CoT and TWO closer together, and result in more months of pain before a baby boom, diplomatic faux pas or similar screwed things up. It’s not practical for EDEN to reform, not in the same way other alliances did. They have nothing much to gain, and plenty to lose. It’s not organisation that’s killed EDEN, it’s lethargy and numbers.


The other option is a bitter one. Without EDEN, CoT and TWO have nobody to fight but each other. Both will need allies in that battle, but especially CoT. With Greece and Turkey facing enemies in CoT, both will find themselves on the side of TWO, officially or not. Greece’s RL relationship with Serbia has been a white elephant in the room for years. Croatia and Romania are more difficult, since they’re enemies with both alliances. Whether they choose to align with their ancient enemies or the CoT is hard to say- but will probably be the deciding factor in who comes out strongest. Whether Hungary and Serbia manage to overcome their opposition to Cromania could be a major factor. China faces Indonesia in the battle over Asia, meaning they are unlikely to be CoT aligned. The remainder of EDEN members are occupied by TWO and likely to go towards CoT. Argentina too will probably end up TWO aligned, as will Australia.


Of course all of this depends on many factors, but the nightmare of a CoT-TWO showdown is fresh in the minds of everyone on both sides. With EDEN failing, it seems inevitable that the two new superpowers will turn on each other given time. However how EDEN’s departing members decide to play it could make the game far more interesting. Seeing Hungarian troops fighting alongside Romanians would be something. Seeing the shadow of a Balkan super-alliance rising would bring echoes of CTRL. With so many old disputes, it seems unlikely. But it would be interesting!


Iain



Ps. the views in this article are:

a) Entirely speculative and not relating to any negotiations or decisions ongoing in game
b) Entirely the product of myself and not associated with TWO, EDEN or CoT
 

Kommentare

chewytaz
chewytaz Tag 1,900, 11:24

First? success?

Talon Karrde
Talon Karrde Tag 1,900, 11:28

Fascinating as always, looking forward to seeing what happens!

CptChazbeard
CptChazbeard Tag 1,900, 11:29

Well written and full of decent information o/

Pan Xenonchik
Pan Xenonchik Tag 1,900, 11:30

I expected to see one more article in style "hahahah, EDEN, we are wiping you" but I see a wise thoughts

v

Strastniot
Strastniot Tag 1,900, 11:31

always a pleasure reading you...

GregoryG
GregoryG Tag 1,900, 11:38

http://i.imgur.com/il8b4.jpg

MRizky
MRizky Tag 1,900, 11:38

nice article bro.. voted

rems2a
rems2a Tag 1,900, 11:40

Meanwhile France joined EDEN...

Mininuns
Mininuns Tag 1,900, 11:41

Great.

V!

medulla spinalis
medulla spinalis Tag 1,900, 11:54

good one, vote!

Liam Tatlock
Liam Tatlock Tag 1,900, 11:57

Here's to a CoT vs TWO fight then! Pass the popcorn.

Green4x
Green4x Tag 1,900, 11:58

good thoughts... and I can imagine nightmare of a CoT-TWO's clash.
After failing of EDEN two alliances probably will be reformatted. Still not sure there can be direct conflict between CoT and TWO, but things seem rather complicated.

Bohemond4
Bohemond4 Tag 1,900, 12:00

good stuff, will be interesting to see what happens.

krispo
krispo Tag 1,900, 12:02

v

Wladimir Rote Sonne
Wladimir Rote Sonne Tag 1,900, 12:08

А Ксенончик уже и здесь отметился. ХДД

somaka
somaka Tag 1,900, 12:12

Good point

Wildrunner
Wildrunner Tag 1,900, 12:13

It’s not organisation that’s killed EDEN, it’s lethargy and numbers.
_________

I read the article and stopped here. This is a major flaw in your analysis. The numbers and the lethargy are not the cause that killed EDEN they are the result of EDEN's overall politics and diplomacy.

Danie Fox
Danie Fox Tag 1,900, 12:18

The USA and Brazil could act as the wedge that drives CoT and TWO apart. I think the odds of Serbia/Hungary and Croatia/Romania being allies are close to zero,.

vladb
vladb Tag 1,900, 12:27

Seems legit .

As far as Romania goes I think that not Hungary but Poland would be the main pain point if Romania would go TWO's way.

Kulczynski
Kulczynski Tag 1,900, 12:31

votado

lancer450
lancer450 Tag 1,900, 12:40

Fascinating as always, looking forward to seeing what happens! x2

Jol nezunk Miki
Jol nezunk Miki Tag 1,900, 12:53

The Serbia-Croatia and Hungary-Romania duos will hardly ever fight on the same side. Apart from that, great article! : 3

Mr Woldy
Mr Woldy Tag 1,900, 12:55

Maybe baby

New Faustian Man
New Faustian Man Tag 1,900, 13:37

There's also the potential that Croatia-Romania-Turkey-Greece-China are happy to stubbornly sit it out, play the waiting game, aware its only a matter of time before TWO and CoT find something to argue over. Any alliance that has Cro-Rom-Tur-Gre-Chi in it can never be written off, no matter how bleak the situation is at present, and they've already illustrated that even with CoTWO's numerical superiority its still unable to hold all of EDEN down.

However should EDEN fall the prospect of Cro-Rom into either TWO or CoT just seems so unlikely, although I imagine TWO is the more likely destination for the 4 European EDEN heavyweights, especially for Greece like you say. There was talk eRoC were feeling out CoT about joining, not sure how true this is (it came from a CoT source), but if it is China may not be far behind considering the ties between the two countries. CoT is probably China's best bet should EDEN fall imo, considering they are surrounded by CoT or soon-to-be CoT countries anyway: USA, India, Indo, SK, Japan and maybe Russia(?) and Brazil(?) if the latter maintain their Asian colonies. Having previously illustrated they're more than capable of staving off a Serb-led attack that over-extends itself through Asia Minor, China is no doubt aware joining CoT means that as long as Russia stands it insulates them from any immediate threat from Europe.

That said, I still can't imagine Croatia-Romania in the same alliance as either Serbia/Hungary/Poland. Or Bulgaria for that matter, but who knows.

Alexander Radsoc Goebbels
Alexander Radsoc Goebbels Tag 1,900, 13:59

On Guard

Ivan Terible
Ivan Terible Tag 1,900, 14:28

It’s not organisation that’s killed EDEN, it’s lethargy and numbers. agreed

4ndre1
4ndre1 Tag 1,900, 14:34

voted

Petsku
Petsku Tag 1,900, 15:05

An excellent article

Coyolxauhqui V
Coyolxauhqui V Tag 1,900, 16:33

former EDEN countries need to get creative... c'mon, creativity saves this game!
It makes no sense to fall again into a 2-alliance dance me thinks, that was part of the initial motivation in CoT. It might however, happen again, they dynamics are hard to break, let alone change.

Good read, Voted all the way from eMexico, hehe!

myexp
myexp Tag 1,900, 16:55

V

BOUD1CCA
BOUD1CCA Tag 1,900, 17:50

I have faith in EDEN, it will arise again I am sure \o/

S.Marcos
S.Marcos Tag 1,900, 19:51

v

Macovei Red
Macovei Red Tag 1,900, 22:57

Big Vote

qmsq
qmsq Tag 1,901, 00:08

What about the swap of Bulgaria for Turkey a year ago? Turkey stopped any future EDEN expand(their unique friendly policy toward allies as Iran and Israel ) by ruining EDEN's morale.

eQuBit
eQuBit Tag 1,901, 01:23

v

koumoutsa1
koumoutsa1 Tag 1,901, 01:35

Interesting! v+s

JyM23
JyM23 Tag 1,901, 08:22

@Louise BrooksDay 1,900, 17:50 "I have faith in EDEN, it will arise again I am sure \o/"

...and when it does, it can call itself Phoenix.

antwone
antwone Tag 1,901, 10:15

an objective article..in case of EDEN's end I think it is more likely that Cromania would support COT and Greece-Turkey would support TWO. EDEN would just split in half.

shipamogli
shipamogli Tag 1,901, 10:20

Nice article, let's see what happens!

Robert E.Lee 1861
Robert E.Lee 1861 Tag 1,901, 10:27

Eden will never be dead
Simply because Chn,Gre,Rom,Cro,Tur have a combination of old players on high positions and they are too much "proud" for that.
They dont want to change because some of those countries simply dont have choice
Turkey and Croatia for example dont have place in TWO or CoT and they are willing to spread a story about eternal brotherhood because there is nothing more for them if Eden breaks apart.

Arcelven
Arcelven Tag 1,901, 11:24

The Fall of eChina = The Fall of EDEN.

fiboll Tag 1,901, 12:07

Kommentar gelöscht

Dr Hugh Jardon
Dr Hugh Jardon Tag 1,901, 13:14

Hats off that is another great article there Iain. Voted

Mary Chan
Mary Chan Tag 1,901, 18:15

~hyuu~

Superferro
Superferro Tag 1,902, 01:04

Cro, Rom, Serb, Hun, Gre and China under same pennon - it would be epic!!!

 
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