[Kemal Ergenekon] Predictions that actually matter

Day 2,657, 22:53 Published in USA USA by Kemal Ergenekon


Fellow eAmericans,

It seems like making predictions about the future is the new trend. So in this article I will make some predictions. Unfortunately, these predictions are neither regarding petty politics about who hates whom nor about which party increased their numbers in congress by a whopping 5%.

Without further ado, here are my predictions:




Prediction Number 1: eUS will fail to install its own dictator.

On February 26, I thought about everything that has been revealed about how the new dictator feature worked, and the reality sank in. I wrote a post in the PDB regarding how a foreign military power could easily enslave the country and inflict damage beyond a conventional PTO could achieve in less than a day. I will get into the nasty details in my next prediction.

Many individuals in the PDB agreed that it was a vital threat, and installing our own dictator as a first line of defence was backed nearly unanimously. The discussion was carried to USWP party forums, and culminated in Gnilraps' post on the private forums.

Later on some posts have been leaked about some members joking about installing a dictator without the approval of the congress, and some probably not joking. You can find the leaked images yourselves and fap about how evil USWP is, that this is all work of the Jews Pfeiffer, etc. These are irrelevant.

Here comes my first prediction: Because of these stupid leaked images, eUS will not install her own dictator who would have been a simple button clicker at the behest of the meta-congress. After seeing how people I previously assumed to be rational players acted when they saw these images, I have lost all my hope. And you know what? I think an e-country who cannot unite in such a critical game mechanics change and lets everything go down the sh*tter does not deserve to succeed anyway. But let's move on...




Prediction Number 2: eUS will be overtaken by a dictator who is an enemy citizen.

Conditional on my first prediction being realized (and I am pretty confident it will be realized), one day the enemies of the country will start their civil war, and install their own dictator within a day.

For those who are still not up-to-date on the mechanics, let me go through all that will happen:

1) Our enemies will coordinate an attack, probably over several days. One enemy citizen leading a MU in eUS will start the civil war. We already have Serbian MUs in our country, and RGR would be more than happy to give away his own MU in any case. It is not a constraint.

2) The civil war will be started at the exact time when most eAmericans and MU commanders etc are not online. This might be when the West Coast people go to sleep, etc. All the enemies will be mobilized, and they will join the enemy MU. They don't require citizenship to fight. They will win several easy rounds before we even can put up a resistance. They will turn it into an epic battle, so that it lasts shorter than your usual campaign.

3) Then we will wake up. Against us will be all enemies of eUS, and every mercenary you can imagine. Why, you ask? Because the reward is so valuable that no amount of CO will be too low for our enemies to spend. I will expound on how much they can expect to make further below.

4) We will lose. We probably won't even have the CO cash at hand, and seriously, can we stand against all our enemies arrayed against us? We are not a top military power any more. We don't have the highest tax revenue in the world any more. We. Will. Be. Crushed.




5) An enemy citizen will become the dictator of eUS. He will gain the control of all government organizations, but we will have moved all the money away from those organizations if one of our CBO officers logs on before the campaign ends. He will have two choices: enacting maximum taxes under which production is still profitable, or enacting arbitrarily high taxes. I will discuss each scenario:

6a) If the dictator chooses maximum taxes under which production is still profitable, the work tax will probably be raised to the exact level in which Q5 RM companies are barely profitable. Some napkin math tells me this amounts to roughly 14.7 CC per WaM click. This corresponds to a work tax Rate of 41.56% given our current average wage of 35.37 USD. Since work tax cannot be increased above 25%, the dictator will increase the average wage first. This is very simple: You get a friend as an employee. You pay him, say, 100,000 CC as wage. When he works, he increases the average wage tremendously. Some of this money goes to your friend who sends the money back. The rest goes into the treasury, but you are the dictator, so again it goes into your pocket. So the work tax per click can be set arbitrarily high.

Given that our current revenues are 120,000, knowing that nearly all our daily revenue comes from work tax, the enemy dictator would make 415600 USD per day in tax revenue if we all continue to work. He alternatively can set a lower tax rate so that you don't leave the country immediately or not work just to spite him. In this case he would still make at least 250000 USD per day. He would break-even on the civil war cost within the first day.

Oh, and as a bonus, VAT rates will be set to 25% so that you will either be giving one fifth of your money to him with each purchase, or you need to move to another country to buy your supplies. Also, if you don't have a foreign market license, you cannot sell your stuff. Good stuff.




6b) If the dictator chooses arbitrarily high taxes, he will again use the trick to raise the work tax per click, but this time he will set it to a stupendously high amount like 100 USD per WaM click. Some people who aren't aware of the events will continue to produce and lose all their money. Others will have to change citizenship as long as they wish to continue using their factories. Legitimate eUS citizens will have to leave for other countries to have a fighting chance, decreasing the number of real eUS players in the country.

7) The dictator will use all CS passes to admit enemy citizens. These citizens will form a new Top 5 party and be the seeds of a permanent political PTO just like AFA in the old days.

8 ) After the minimum amount of days have passed, we will start the liberation war. If our CBO managers were quick in transferring the money in the national organizations, we will have some ample reserves to fight, but our enemies will also put all their money on the table because the reward is a revenue above 250,000 USD every single day. That makes 7.5 millions in a month if you didn't notice. We will have a single chance to beat the dictator, but the odds will be stacked against us. If we win, we will have lost nearly all our reserves, and the next dictator attack by a foreigner will absolutely succeed, after which game is over. If we lose, game is over. I will now explain what game over means.

9) When we burn through all our reserves and lose control of the country, we will either quit the game, or change citizenship. The more we change citizenship, the higher the fraction of voting enemy citizens will become. In each month we fail to reclaim our country, more enemies will get citizenship, and they will be able to elect their own congressmen and own country presidents. This will create a foothold in the country regardless of whether future liberation wars succeed or not.

10) Once our enemies succeed in driving a sufficient amount of American players to other countries or out of the game, they will have the majority in the country. At this stage, they will elect their own country president, and lower the taxes to a normal level. They will use our country as a farming ground for their own citizens and allies since our core regions have 100/100/100 bonuses. They will live happily ever after, and we will have LOST THE GAME IN THE MOST HUMILIATING AND DEVASTATING WAY IMAGINABLE.




Prediction Number 3: Reading this article won't change the minds of most congressmen, and they will watch the country burn because of their petty politics:

As we all know, I am a Dirty Pluffering Commie Muslim iNCi Kebab American Bourgeoisie Class PTOer Traitor, so it won't change the minds of most players. Some will say BAA, others will say "xxxx, how could you!", the rest will say "we will never give in to dictatorship! muh freedoms". In the end you will fail to coordinate and lead to game over.

It will be fun to watch, though. And if my predictions come true, I will write another article with the title "I TOLD YOU SO!", and simply link it to this one.

Happy trails,
Kemal Ergenekon
Dirty Pluffering Commie Muslim iNCi Kebab American Bourgeoisie Class PTOer Traitor