Why Haliman won
ligtreb
Before I begin, let me first say I'm confident Haliman will lead our country well and know he is qualified to be President. To those who don't think he's ready to be President, I ask you all to offer your services to Haliman's cabinet -- if he doesn't use you and he messes up, it's his fault. If you didn't offer to help and he fails, you can't blame him. We're one country and on the same team.
Having spent month after month at the upper levels of the Executive branch, there is no question that Inwegen was the most qualified candidate in this race, even Haliman supporters have to admit that. However, Haliman was the best candidate, as today's results show. Haliman did everything he had to do to win, Inwegen did not. I saw this coming weeks ago, any of you could've if you knew what to look for.
1) Haliman was better at the game mechanics
This might seem crazy considering how much Inwegen knows about this game, but it's true. Game mechanics dictate that the President needs to be elected by a plurality of citizens, meaning that a majority of citizens have to know who you are.
There are plenty of ways to make sure citizens know who you are:
Newspaper: Possibly the most important tool considering how powerful they are with 2-clickers and less-active players, Inwegen failed at getting subscribers and eyeballs. To be fair, Haliman wasn't that impressive here either, but his 403 subscribers is more than double Inwegen's 190 (numbers may change after publishing). Both candidates had their articles orgnetted, so that was even. The subscribers gave Haliman the edge.
Ads: I didn't see a ton of advertising from either side to be honest, but saw more Haliman ads than I did Inwegen ads. Ads are seen by everyone, don't underestimate their power. UPDATE: I know the ad module is currently down, but early in the campaign, it was not. I'm referring to ads I saw then.
Friends: Again, neither candidate has a high number of friends, but Haliman's 923 is again over double Inwegen's 393. Friends isn't just a popularity contest, it's a tool of game mechanics: Your friends see your shouts. I have over 8,000 friends, I know that when I shout something, people see it, they take action or respond to whatever I say.
UPDATE: In-game titles: After reading the comments, decided to add this one. Haliman is the Party President of the nation's largest party and the congressman from the state with the most residents (Florida). A lot of people were already used to voting for him.
2) Haliman played politics correctly, Inwegen barely did if it all
Like it or not, politics is a major part of this game. We have parties, we elect congressmen and we elect Presidents. Politics happen. Inwegen should've known that, I'm old enough to remember when he was active in the USWP and ran for Party President. However he stayed mostly out of the political realm, allowing Haliman to get 8 of the top 10 party endorsements that happened.
Haliman went to work on getting party endorsements a while ago, knowing that party nominations are one of the few things voters see on the voting page that can help distinguish a candidate. There's no presentation or newspaper link like when running for Congress, and Haliman and Inwegen's national goals were similar, so the party nominations would be significant. Haliman narrowly won the Federalist and UIP primaries, having significant leads in both before Inwegen's team realized what happened and started working to make the races close, too little, too late.
As Party President of the USWP, Haliman was well-known in political circles, and since people heavily involved in politics often skew younger in their eRep careers (and aren't involved at the upper levels of the Executive Branch), they knew Haliman a lot better than Inwegen. Inwegen and his team needed to make the case for him in the party primaries much better than they did.
During my long-time in government, I've learned that most executive branch people despise parties and politics. However, you need party support to run for President, it's part of our game mechanics.
3) Haliman campaigned better
Like him or not, Haliman inspired people to support him, Every day for the past week or so, I've seen a lot more shouts and articles in support of Haliman than in support of Inwegen. I'm uniquely qualified to see this because of my friend total, the consensus among people voting for Haliman was they wanted someone new in charge and they liked his ideas in his articles. Players who have only been around for a few months don't care about two years of experience they weren't around for.
4) The military vote
The military isn't a uniform voting block as most military people aren't active in politics. However, Haliman is an officer in the National Guard and has a presence in the military. Inwegen is not in the military as far as I know -- that's a large group of voters there with more exposure to Haliman than Inwegen, especially considering that the military isn't usually involved in the executive branch much (except for the Joint Chiefs of Staff). The military is an extremely large percentage of our country and can't be ignored for national elections.
Finishing thoughts
This election was a tough one on me, since I consider both Inwegen and Haliman good friends, and both have helped me in my career. I would've been happy with whoever won.
This wasn't rocket science, I hope most of my what I wrote is fairly obvious to you. But I've seen way too few candidates in recent months carry out a good campaign.
Thank you all for reading and I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Comments
Good article Ligtreb. Voted.
Even though I'm unhappy to see this particular outcome, your analysis of why it turned out such is on-the-dot as far as I'm concerned. It's a shame pandering to parties is such a major factor in Presidential Elections.
Voted 🙂
Inwegen was in st6 back in the day... But SGGHAYS is in ST6 now. heh
please someone food
just a few breads!!!!
im dead!!
Very well thought-out analysis, lig : )
As for your point on supporting Haliman-elect this month: I look forward to doing the best I can as Deputy SECDEF. Hope others look to support him, as well
Ligtreb PLEASE run for president next month..
Voted
Whether people like it or not, it is what it is, and Liggy pretty much has it nailed here.
v
Good article. Voted, already Sub'd.
Haliman ran the better campaign. Hands down.
Some of us older players support him as well because we've seen how the same people seem to cycle through the same jobs and think new blood is needed instead of just the same old faces. I'll be offering Haliman advice or any services I can provide should he win.
Haliman's the man, if any one can it's Haliman, man.
After Landon whipped the Feds, Inwegen basically lost the Fed and UIP endos by 3 votes each. Considering Inwegene wasn't working individual party members (and instead was helping run the country), Haliman was basically a few votes away from only having the support of only his own party and none others.
Of course a 1 vote difference is the same as 1000 votes in democracy. Kind of. So it is a moot point, but one worth considering when you realize that Hal has been "running" for three or so months for this and Inwegen decided to run 9 or 10 days ago at most.
Hal did everything "right" to run. Join the largest party. Join the military. Run for Congress in Florida. Be PP of the largest party. Stack Congress with your party and use Congress positions and the Speakership as a launching pad for higher office. He did everything right. None of it impresses me. None of it makes me think "Wow this guy can move people and inspire us and build things and lead us into the unknown." It just means he knows how to take the path of least resistance and hold steady the whole way through. I guess that's worth something. It's not worth enough to me.
Good Read, Thanks! Voted
Gutsy call, some 15 hours before the polls close. 😉
But, no matter who you support, Ligtreb's analysis holds water.
are there any ads? I just see the generic erep ads
Not kidding, anyone who has any ambition to run for president or socialize in the upper political circles should bookmark this article. It does not explain everything on getting elected but this is more information than Inwegen's campaign(or lack thereof) acted on.
Ligtreb, you're spot on. It didn't help that Colin blasted Inwegen in yesterday's interview with Hadrian_X. Here are my reasons for this election going this direction:
1. Military vote.
2. Voter perceptions of Inwegen.
3. USWP member awareness of Haliman.
4. The yet-again confirmed curse of the forum poll.
And CRoy, try to have a little bit of humility on election day. It goes over well.
Good analysis ligtreb. However, I must second the point ronsil has made above me. The ad module is down and the only ads are ones by the admin. Other than that, these are some good observations.
BECAUSE HE IS AWESOME!
@CRoy -- If Inwegen thought he was the best man to lead this country, he had to know to spend more time campaigning (or recruit a staff to do it for him). He's been around, he knows how this works. And I totally forgot to mention Congressman from Florida, that's significant as well.
@JBB -- Thanks for the compliment, but I'm not that gutsy. Unless it's a close election, comebacks and lead changes are rare after noon ET. 150+ vote lead is not close.
@ronsil -- No ads today/yesterday, but earlier in the campaigns, there were.
@PiZ -- could've included the Colin interview, but would've also had to include the Josh endorsement of Inwegen.
@MP, Relorian, Lt. Scheisskopf, RacoonGoon, Vincent Sarius -- thanks for the kind words.
Does anyone have an estimate of the size of the real impact of the military vote? On the one hand, military members are much more active than your average citizen and therefore much more likely to vote; on the other, a lot of military members do ATO work and therefore don't vote in domestic elections. My impression was that the second factor is over-riding, so I'm curious since both ligtreb and PigInZen considered the military vote to be a significant factor.
The ad module not being available really hurt both campaigns imo. And while I voted for Inwegen today, I agree that Haliman politiked like a champ. And there's nothing wrong with that, this is a geopolitical simulation. Haliman actually went out and tryed to secure votes from people while Inwegen basically only did it at the end, when he was in panic mode. I know Inwegen is busy w/ CoS, but that definitely doesn't mean he couldn't reach out to the parties to talk about his platform and what he would plan to do as president.
I don't know if I like it when people get elected through playing politics. It doesn't give me confidence in their abilities to be president. Good Luck with it, America.
That said, neither candidate seemed to have much of a plan. I don't blame them, the majority of this game is foreign policy and that situation is up in the air on all fronts atm.
You forgot to mention the diversionary votes. The usual PTO-ers likely wasted their votes on the Serbian guy. Krems being an option syphoned away votes from Inwegen's support base.
4. The yet-again confirmed curse of the forum poll.
PiZ has it. Nothing else matters except the forum poll.
j/k, ligtreb. This was a great article. I'd v/s if I hadn't already.
Haliman talked to me personally in IRC. That is a way to get votes.
This is full truth. Whoever you've supported this past week or so, you have to agree with what ligtreb said.
Plus, just give inwegen MoFA and everyone's happy anyway.
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Getting elected to public office is all about the politics, great analysis, Ligtreb. Now we will see if the elected candidate gets the support needed to carry forward American interests.
Great job Ligtreb. voted.
Ligtreb for potus! I'm 100% sure you will win if you decide to run
Great analysis of the elections ligtreb, and it seems everyone agrees with your assesement. Good luck to the new president for the coming month!
-Tails
It would seem that politics in this game is complicated...looks fun to get into.
"If you didn't offer to help and he fails, you can't blame him"
Bwah, I reserve myself the right to criticize the executive and the people who lifted them in to power without lifting a finger to alter things. I think it's in the constitution, rite? :>
After great months from Krems, Hamilton, Colin and Frost, the majority of Americans is seemingly ready to take a bump and elect a mediocre administration for a month, resembling Reala's election, so better leaders can follow and drag USA out of the mess. Electing Haliman is quite a good opening for February's winner's campaign, be it Gulden Draak, Inwegen or someone else.
However, Haliman's lack of experience in foreign relations, which worries me the most, can turn up to be an advantage. If he manages to mess up PANAM and anger the central powers of Europe, we might just get rid of all the unnecessary states.
@Mr. Monopoly, it's actually quite dull and you won't score girls by playing politics. Try the military instead, mini-ligtreb.
I voted for him because I picked his name out of a hat (seriously) I cast my vote based on who comes out of a hat or whoever ask nicely. Whatever comes first 😃
Criticizing the Administration is acceptable, actively working against is not acceptable. If you are pro American you will work as part of the team, if you are not then you will not 'lift a hand' to help, which imho is the same as actively working against America.
agree with all on this paper
Good article Liggy.
i will be the next candidate
Ligtreb PLEASE run for president next month.. +1
You know what really changed my mind? All the trolling, I am sure it happened on both sides, but I felt like supporters of Haliman were more positive. Inwegen is a great guy with great ideas but all I got from the forums was how Haliman was not experienced and somehow electing Haliman was going to mean the end of diplomacy. It annoyed me so I felt like giving him a chance to prove him wrong.
This was brought up on the forums, but I gotta repeat it here.
Nothing you saw on the forums in regard to Haliman was trolling. That's not what trolling is. You overly-sensitive milifags need to STFU and fight. You don't understand internet.
Haliman might end up proving us wrong, but the sentiment and logic isn't wrong. Haliman won't be great. He might be better than our expectations, but he won't be great.
Haliman did work very hard to get both the Party votes and the personal votes. I know for a fact he went out campaigning during the UIP primary to see if he couldn't change someones mind (worked on me). As a whole he played the elections better.
Voted, well thought out article that shows how strategy may sometimes trump policy.
@Harflimon: Not everyone frequents sites or forums were trolling is rampant. You can't expect everyone to tell the difference.
Not everyone understands the internets.
ligtreb,
As ALWAYS I love your articles. I think they are clear and share the honest truth on whatever you are reporting on. Thank you for keeping everyone informed. 😛
Someone may correct me if I am wrong, but I think I was the only SFP member to vote for Halliman in our internal poll...all the other poll votes were none of the above and the internal comments were all over the map. When the Mexican Lady came up on the ballot after all, of course I voted for her. Since I don't believe that Halliman represents constructive change, I look forward to opposing this regime as I have so many others that have gone before it.
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