September 2012 Congress Results
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by The Equalist
In my last article, I looked at how the new election system could affect the outcome of the elections. I gave a prediction as to what the results will be. As a reminder, here is what I predicte😛
TUP: 32.99%, 13 Congress
UKPP: 21.35%, 9 Congress
ESO: 20.44%, 9 Congress
NE: 13.84%, 5 Congress
UKRP: 11.38%, 4 Congress
Here are the official results.
TUP: 28.44%, 11 Congress
UKPP*: 26.53%, 11 Congress
ESO: 18.32%, 7 Congress
NE: 16.22%, 7 Congress
UKRP: 10.50%, 4 Congress
*UKPP ran several PCP members, meaning UKPP got 8 and PCP got 3. More details below.
For the most part, the actual results were within 5% or less than the prediction, and each party got within 2 Congressmembers of the prediction. I have a few theories that can explain the differences between the prediction and the actual results which are listed below.
The clear winner is New Era, who have risen to the top 5 within the past month, gaining a higher than expected turnout. With a surge in membership in recent weeks, it is likely that they have a more active base, resulting in more votes compared to other parties. Also, since this party has a centrist ideology (the only party in the top 5 to have this), it is plausible that citizens not affiliated with top 5 parties that affiliate themselves as centrists voted for them. In previous elections, these people likely voted for left-leaning parties such as TUP and ESO, which would also help explain why these two parties got lower votes than expected.
There was plenty of attention in the media focusing on UKPP, with accusations of vote buying articles among other things. What I was not aware of in my previous article is that UKPP had fielded several candidates from the PCP, who are no longer in the top 5 despite many years being in the top 5. The UKPP/PCP coalition was not unanimously accepted between the two parties. Based on previous results and this month, it can be estimated that about half of PCP’s voting bloc voted for UKPP, which gave them a 5% increase in votes compared to the estimate.
I have noticed many other articles about yesterday’s election, so sorry for any repetitiveness. But this shows that the new system has radically changed the way Congress elections work. What do you think of the new system and the results of this election? Share your thoughts below. Disclaimer: I am not responsible for any flame wars that break out in the comments section.
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Comments
I do not think half of PCP voted for UKPP. As PCP had 3 members on UKPP list on a good position, PCP have informed all their members, members of a party outside the top 5 are much more motivated than others (because otherwise they will leave to a top 5 party), I think almost all PCP members have voted on the UKPP list. In UKPP there are some problems, they are in two MU's now, there was a heave debated fight for PP and the vote buying article of Sir Nick. This could lead to less voters I think.
Nice article, voted (already subscribed).
As it turns out UKPP got pretty much our average votes, so we have no problem with turn out! Also UKPP members are in many MU's not just two.
Nice article, voted (already subscribed).x2
The total votes that the UKPP actually received didn't deviate much from our usual and we've gained several members in the past few weeks which makes the real impact from the PCP vote almost negligible.
However, we offered a 2nd place platform to a party that has long struggled to be represented in the UK and, for me, that's what really matters. We managed to present them with the 3 seats they fought to achieve last month and I hope that it fosters a greater bond between our parties.