:: smeekileaks :: Monetary Market Analysis
Day 2,576, 09:05
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Published in France 
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by
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by deleted smee
Goodafternoon eRepublikans,
I realize this is not the type of article people are accustomed to, or the type of article that many people would find interesting, however I have decided to publish it anyways for certain "core" readers who I know will enjoy it.
As you know today changes were announced in regards to the gold reward for medals. I will not discuss any opinions about this change or the relevant, and legitimate reasons why this change occurred. What I will discuss however is the effect these changes will have on the monetary market.
I have attempted to keep this analysis as basic as possible so that everybody can understand my message. Hopefully I've succeeded.
First, you have to understand that the monetary market has an equilibrium - an equilibrium is the price where supply meets demand.
What is demand?
Demand is the amount of something that buyers are willing and able to purchase at a particular price.
What is supply?
Supply is the amount of something that sellers are willing and able to sell at a particular price.
What is an equilibrium?
Is it supply or demand that determines the market price? The answer is “both.” This is the "equilibrium".
Due to the changes in the medals, the following issues will affect the price of gol
Market Force #1 - Decreased supply of gold
The average player will earn less gold from medals so they will have less gold to sell and there will be less gold on the MM.
Market Force #2 - Increased demand of gold
The average player will earn less gold from medals so they will need to buy more gold off the monetary market.
Market Force #3 - Increased supply of Currency
As there will be more CC floating around it will be devalued and players will be willing to pay higher prices to buy gold. If you have 20,000cc and you need gold, do you really care if you pay 5,000 cc for 10 gold?
Market Force #4 - Decreased demand of Currency
As players will earn 1,000cc per medal they will no longer need to sell gold to buy weapons, food and to change regions. There will be less gold placed for sale on the MM.
Synopsis
All the above indicate that there will be upwards pressure on the price of gold. Specifically gold will have a decreased supply and an increased demand. CC will have an increased supply and a decreased demand.
Unless other changes occur I personally predict that sooner or later gold will once again go over 1,000cc.
I hope this article has been useful to you and hope that you're now able to consider ways to use the latest changes to your advantage.
Until next time,
smee was here
I realize this is not the type of article people are accustomed to, or the type of article that many people would find interesting, however I have decided to publish it anyways for certain "core" readers who I know will enjoy it.
As you know today changes were announced in regards to the gold reward for medals. I will not discuss any opinions about this change or the relevant, and legitimate reasons why this change occurred. What I will discuss however is the effect these changes will have on the monetary market.
I have attempted to keep this analysis as basic as possible so that everybody can understand my message. Hopefully I've succeeded.
First, you have to understand that the monetary market has an equilibrium - an equilibrium is the price where supply meets demand.
What is demand?
Demand is the amount of something that buyers are willing and able to purchase at a particular price.
What is supply?
Supply is the amount of something that sellers are willing and able to sell at a particular price.
What is an equilibrium?
Is it supply or demand that determines the market price? The answer is “both.” This is the "equilibrium".
Due to the changes in the medals, the following issues will affect the price of gol
😛
Market Force #1 - Decreased supply of gold
The average player will earn less gold from medals so they will have less gold to sell and there will be less gold on the MM.
Market Force #2 - Increased demand of gold
The average player will earn less gold from medals so they will need to buy more gold off the monetary market.
Market Force #3 - Increased supply of Currency
As there will be more CC floating around it will be devalued and players will be willing to pay higher prices to buy gold. If you have 20,000cc and you need gold, do you really care if you pay 5,000 cc for 10 gold?
Market Force #4 - Decreased demand of Currency
As players will earn 1,000cc per medal they will no longer need to sell gold to buy weapons, food and to change regions. There will be less gold placed for sale on the MM.
Synopsis
All the above indicate that there will be upwards pressure on the price of gold. Specifically gold will have a decreased supply and an increased demand. CC will have an increased supply and a decreased demand.
Unless other changes occur I personally predict that sooner or later gold will once again go over 1,000cc.
I hope this article has been useful to you and hope that you're now able to consider ways to use the latest changes to your advantage.
Until next time,
smee was here
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Smee's new name is Sugar Tits. PM him and call him Sugar Tits and he will give you 25 Q7 weapons.
It works, thanks!
Market Force #5 - Increased gold demand will make people buy moar gold!
Exactly!
One more factor: It will also encourage youngsters to leave the game and as result it will reduce consumption even more (oldies are self sufficient).
Not only new players, all kind of players
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nice!
I can see an economist brain there, under smee's ugly face.
I've never heard you complain about my face before.
... usually because you rarely see it since i'm always behind you.
Yeah, this is a true story.. I am always in front of you.
even if he is front of you, unless he is facing you he still couldn't see your face... and then neither you are both 'in front' of each other...
They promise new changes...let's see and wait.
not changes.
"cool things".
basic economy, ty 😃
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Well, it's also interesting to say that althoug "today" that medals still worth 5 golds (at a change of 1 gold ~200 cc), from January onward, they will barely worth 1 gold. Not a scam at all, Mr. Alexis Bonte.
Voted.
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In other words, those medals will become more worthless with time 😃
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simple and just, i agree...
unsure how to survive any longer when that occurs..
logging in daily and 2 clicking because not beeing able to do more whitout hurting my economy will be boring as hell...
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Nice and simple. But I 'd like to add some things:
a) The gold value increased a few hours ago pretty fast, because many people panicked that by the night the gold value would have increased a lot. So if they had large amounts of cc, they would lose money. I believe that because of this, we had an increasement from 207 to 240 in 15 minutes (and not because of a change at the equilibrium since the change is not applied). Now things will calm down. Anyway, tomorrow when the new erepublik day starts and people will have the opportunity to buy 10 more gold, I expect a new (even higher) augmentation of gold value.
b) You explained very nicely that the monetary market depends on an equilibrium. This means that sooner or later, an equilibrium will be reached whether we want it or not. So it is impossible to "fix" the equilibrium. I point out this because I saw a shout of yours suggesting we all reset our offers to 1GOLD=100cc. So even if the whole erepublik community (impossible) agreed to "fix" the equilibrium, this would not last, because at some time we would reach the "natural" equilibrium.
c) Maybe we will also have some effects on the Marketplace too. People will have more cc, so maybe the demand of products will increase, leading to a general augmentation of the prices at the Marketplaces. But this statement has some gaps. People won't be richer (which would lead to the increasement of the demand). They will just have more cc. So maybe there will not be any effect on the Marketplace. Anyway, we will see.
d) If "c" is right, maybe we will have an inreasement at the job market too. The increased supply of cc can lead to higher salaries.
Sorry for the large comment 🙂
a) after new medals are introduced, right now nothing has changed yet. any deviations you saw from equilibrium is a result of speculation.
b) you probably saw somebody elses shout for 1g=100cc. it wasn't me.
c) q7 tank prices tend to keep in relevance to gold prices. they tend to stay between 30 and 40 tanks to the gold.
d) even if you have an increase in wages it would be relative. however last time gold was over 1000cc i remember having employees at 5cc.
OK, it seems I mistook you with someone else with the shout. If what you say about q7 tanks and gold is true, we will definetely have an increasement.
a) There is a bot here, not speculation
c) one year ago there was a moment where 8 Q7 tanks = 1 G
d) Too many factories, not enough workers, not enough new players to use buy the production. Natural equilibrium pushes the salary that high and they will go even higher.
Good read thanks for the info. Just wish I would have read it before I bought a market liscense
Nice. Voted.
just from this medals i don't see the gold going up more than 250-300cc
(thise move was aloso a move to minimize the efect of gold mines and gold turnament on mm oversuply of gold)
I believe you didn’t take in consideration 2 thinks:
1. Some CC will not go into the gold market, but into weapons and food market, so these prices will go up a little. This means less pressure for the gold market.
2. As new players are not entering this game we will have way too many old players that are self-sufficient. That means they do not need the gold from the medals (because they have all the upgrades they need) and they are selling this gold (I do not know how many players are buying EB with gold to take into consideration). With no new players to buy, the price of gold will drop easily as time go by. This is happening for some time.
So I believe this measure came in help of old players that are selling the gold from the medals anyway. This measure will help the price of gold not to drop for a while, but eventually, with less new players in the game, this is going to happen anyway, in time.
Of course if there is a drop of old players or new players entering in the game, there will be a change in demand and supply.
Good thing too. I had pretty much converted all my. salt and peters to rubber plantations. I need more CC then gold.
good article! o/
LOL you posted in the wrong section.
"Unless other changes occur I personally predict that sooner or later gold will once again go over 1,000cc." Smee day 2577
Funniest shit i have read so far 😃
1G=1000cc then you say 30 to 40 tank WQ7 per gold. Means : WQ7 at 30cc. Last time we saw that was more than 2 years ago and there was a buying bot injecting lots of cc in the economy.
Unless you believe that te gold cc ratio will change drastically to a magnitude similare to the bot era, i think your prediction are suffuring of an over exageration from your side. It is time to take your chill pill and stop fooling everybody strting by yourself 😉
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It is a good attempt but your hypothesis is flawed due to lack of completeness. I donot think the gold price would push beyond 250 for several reasons.
1. You assume that the medal change will shift the supply demand balance in favor of currency. This assumption does not consider the amount of imbalance in favor of gold in the current market. This imbalance is currently walled at 200cc/gold because of national ability to issue currency at that rate. The medals currently being converted into currency equivalent will not tip that balance in favor of currency.
2. the reward is a fixed 1000cc. this is again a big mistake from the pea brained admins. What they should have said was the currency equivalent of 5 gold, so that when gold moved towards 0.4 and 0.3 per currency the reward increased on that ratio. With the fixed conversion rate means any movement upwards on gold price will devalue the reward on these medals diminishing their effect with every movement.
This diminishing effect basically limits the ability of the medal to affect price of gold beyond certain value. Hence my conclusion that prices will not be affected much and may stay in between 200-250.
It was not so long ago that we did not have the FF medal supplying gold to the game, and its price was in the 210 to 230.
The impact of the loss of the mercenary medal will be small... the biggest impact might be the loss of the true patriot one.
There is someone that copied your article ... not me.
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and when salaries go up also the cost of Work as Manager will go up as work tax will go up... happy days... price of top raw companies will go up with the price of gold... it's just utter crap again
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